The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[sabrecmc]

That's awesome news about Pfizer! Ahhhhh, can't wait to get my daughter vaccinated! I'll be so relieved.

 

[DisneYE]

A double-mutation variant is spreading through India like wildfire. It has the mutations found in both the UK and the South African variants - possibly making it more transmissible AND evasive.

Just a couple of months ago, India had tamed its daily viral caseload down to just 14,000 - and, now, this new variant is running over their population at a clip of nearly 140,000 cases a day - well past the pre-vaccine peak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/dou...ay-spread-to-other-countries-doctor-says.html
And it looks like this new mutation is already here in North America:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/res...uble-mutant-covid-variant-in-california-.html

That's quite disturbing. Same with the Brazil one.
Have you heard if the vaccines are effective against these variants?
Thanks for contributing to this thread btw. I read your posts and others every day.
This virus is a wild beast isn't it.

 

[blabadie]

Pfizer (and I believe others as well) has been shown effective against variants so far.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-effective-safrica-variant.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/pfize...ptomatic-transmission-covid/story?id=76389615

 

[Sun_soakin]

Pfizer (and I believe others as well) has been shown effective against variants so far.

Read that as well. Such a relief. Just got my second dose earlier this week. My 17 y/o was able to get his first shot yesterday. Looking forward to approval on the 12-16 crowd. That would leave me with 5/6 of my family vaccinated. So thankful it’s been rolling out well here in CA

 

[jerry557]

A double-mutation variant is spreading through India like wildfire. It has the mutations found in both the UK and the South African variants - possibly making it more transmissible AND evasive.

Just a couple of months ago, India had tamed its daily viral caseload down to just 14,000 - and, now, this new variant is running over their population at a clip of nearly 140,000 cases a day - well past the pre-vaccine peak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/30/dou...ay-spread-to-other-countries-doctor-says.html
And it looks like this new mutation is already here in North America:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/res...uble-mutant-covid-variant-in-california-.html

I think we'll be dealing with mutations like this likely forever. This coronavirus strain is as unstable as Influenza. It keeps changing. And by the time we even identify a new variant, the virus is already spread. There is no time to even try to control it.

Will we ever again have a world that has eliminated SARS-COV-2? Not likely. I was reading what a virologist wrote recently about this. And he said the idea that we can vaccinate everyone quickly enough to prevent mutation is not at all realistic. There are too many people in the world and this virus spreads way too quickly. The planet has 7 billion people on it. There is no vaccination program you can implement that can produce enough vaccine quickly enough and inject enough people with it before this virus mutates or the vaccine wears off. It's just not possible. It is a race against nature that man will never win. But beyond that issue, the problem is that the vaccines don't fully stop infection. Most vaccines you can still get the virus and it can still replicate in you, even if you never become sick. The J&J one is also only 70% effective. People have a huge misconceptions on vaccines. They are only tools to help contain a virus and help prevent its spread, they are typically not silver bullets. They are not cures. And they are not 100% effective.

How long do these vaccines last is another issue. We don't know because they aren't old enough to know. Pfizer says all they know right now for sure is that theirs lasts for 6 months at least (6 months from the 2nd shot). Studies have also discovered that people who get COVID and recover maintain some immunity for up to 8 months. So it's very possible these vaccines won't last more than a year because our immune systems don't seem to want to remember this virus for longer than that. So everyone who is vaccinated today will have to get another shot next year.....especially if we are combating new variants. As I said above, this is a race against nature man will never win. And getting everyone to keep their shots up to date every year is going to be a futile exercise, especially if they are a person who does experience a lot of side effects.

We may eventually, possibly, get to a point where we can limit its spread so it doesn't infect 75% of a cruise ship because a single person was infected. We will get better at that. But we are probably never going to eliminate this virus.

 

[brentm77]

I think we'll be dealing with mutations like this likely forever. This coronavirus strain is as unstable as Influenza. It keeps changing. And by the time we even identify a new variant, the virus is already spread. There is no time to even try to control it.

Will we ever again have a world that has eliminated SARS-COV-2? Not likely. I was reading what a virologist wrote recently about this. And he said the idea that we can vaccinate everyone quickly enough to prevent mutation is not at all realistic. There are too many people in the world and this virus spreads way too quickly. The planet has 7 billion people on it. There is no vaccination program you can implement that can produce enough vaccine quickly enough and inject enough people with it before this virus mutates or the vaccine wears off. It's just not possible. It is a race against nature that man will never win. But beyond that issue, the problem is that the vaccines don't fully stop infection. Most vaccines you can still get the virus and it can still replicate in you, even if you never become sick. The J&J one is also only 70% effective. People have a huge misconceptions on vaccines. They are only tools to help contain a virus and help prevent its spread, they are typically not silver bullets. They are not cures. And they are not 100% effective.

How long do these vaccines last is another issue. We don't know because they aren't old enough to know. Pfizer says all they know right now for sure is that theirs lasts for 6 months at least (6 months from the 2nd shot). Studies have also discovered that people who get COVID and recover maintain some immunity for up to 8 months. So it's very possible these vaccines won't last more than a year because our immune systems don't seem to want to remember this virus for longer than that. So everyone who is vaccinated today will have to get another shot next year.....especially if we are combating new variants. As I said above, this is a race against nature man will never win. And getting everyone to keep their shots up to date every year is going to be a futile exercise, especially if they are a person who does experience a lot of side effects.

We may eventually, possibly, get to a point where we can limit its spread so it doesn't infect 75% of a cruise ship because a single person was infected. We will get better at that. But we are probably never going to eliminate this virus.

You are simply wrong about it mutating as fast as the flu. It's not even close. A simple Google search will help you on that one. Covid has a proofreading mechanism to check for mutations and attempt to stop them. The flu doesn't. To date, we don't even know of any new strains of covid-19.

There is significant evidence to suggest immunity and protection will be at least several years, if not longer. We don't know for sure yet, but there is reason to be hopeful.

So far, the three US-approved vacines appear to be pretty good against all variants of concern. There is some debate about how effective, since there is a reduced response to some variants, but there is at least some protection, and Moderna and Pfizer are currently testing boosters just in case.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

News from California, we start opening vaccinations for everyone 16 and older April 15 (5 days from now). One of us (my wife, a frontline medical worker) is already fully vaccinated; myself and one adult daughter (in NY for school) are at 1 of 2, and the other two daughters to get their first dose this coming Thursday (the 15). It's estimated that almost 1/2 of the adults in California have been given at least one dose (which means "all of the doses" for those that took the J & J vaccine).

 

[jerry557]

You are simply wrong about it mutating as fast as the flu. It's not even close. A simple Google search will help you on that one. Covid has a proofreading mechanism to check for mutations and attempt to stop them. The flu doesn't. To date, we don't even know of any new strains of covid-19.

There is significant evidence to suggest immunity and protection will be at least several years, if not longer. We don't know for sure yet, but there is reason to be hopeful.

So far, the three US-approved vacines appear to be pretty good against all variants of concern. There is some debate about how effective, since there is a reduced response to some variants, but there is at least some protection, and Moderna and Pfizer are currently testing boosters just in case.

I'm just telling you what Pfizer and Moderna say. They say their vaccines last months, not years. No one knows for sure yet. That's true. And we won't know for sure for awhile. But to say this is going to last years is so premature the drug companies won't even say that yet. The general thinking is another round of shots will be needed in a year.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

News from California, we start opening vaccinations for everyone 16 and older April 15 (5 days from now).

Yep, the problem being there's less vaccine being shipped this upcoming week. With the Johnson & Johnson problems (bad batches and possible side effects), the amount of vaccine coming to CA is down by something like 81% in J&J vaccine and 15% overall in the state. And more people eligible. They're saying it will take "several weeks" before vaccinations catch up to demand.

 

[mmouse37]

Had my second shot on Thursday of Moderna. That evening headache started. Yesterday I had headache, chills, lethargy and slight stiff neck. Felt like crud and didn't feel like doing anything all day. Today I feel back to normal. Oh and very sore arm at the injection site still today. There is a hard ring around the injection site and it is warm to the touch. Same as when I had the first shot.

Honestly, the main reason I got the vaccine was to travel as I feel travel abroad may require it. I would have been happy to wait on getting it for awhile but we happened to ask at Walgreen's and they told us to come back the next day so we did.

MJ

 

[Intr3pid]

I think we'll be dealing with mutations like this likely forever. This coronavirus strain is as unstable as Influenza. It keeps changing. And by the time we even identify a new variant, the virus is already spread. There is no time to even try to control it.

Will we ever again have a world that has eliminated SARS-COV-2? Not likely. I was reading what a virologist wrote recently about this. And he said the idea that we can vaccinate everyone quickly enough to prevent mutation is not at all realistic. There are too many people in the world and this virus spreads way too quickly. The planet has 7 billion people on it. There is no vaccination program you can implement that can produce enough vaccine quickly enough and inject enough people with it before this virus mutates or the vaccine wears off. It's just not possible. It is a race against nature that man will never win. But beyond that issue, the problem is that the vaccines don't fully stop infection. Most vaccines you can still get the virus and it can still replicate in you, even if you never become sick. The J&J one is also only 70% effective. People have a huge misconceptions on vaccines. They are only tools to help contain a virus and help prevent its spread, they are typically not silver bullets. They are not cures. And they are not 100% effective.

How long do these vaccines last is another issue. We don't know because they aren't old enough to know. Pfizer says all they know right now for sure is that theirs lasts for 6 months at least (6 months from the 2nd shot). Studies have also discovered that people who get COVID and recover maintain some immunity for up to 8 months. So it's very possible these vaccines won't last more than a year because our immune systems don't seem to want to remember this virus for longer than that. So everyone who is vaccinated today will have to get another shot next year.....especially if we are combating new variants. As I said above, this is a race against nature man will never win. And getting everyone to keep their shots up to date every year is going to be a futile exercise, especially if they are a person who does experience a lot of side effects.

We may eventually, possibly, get to a point where we can limit its spread so it doesn't infect 75% of a cruise ship because a single person was infected. We will get better at that. But we are probably never going to eliminate this virus.

Those are some good points the virologist made. My thinking is a bit more neutral on it.

COVID is more contagious (higher R value) and deadlier (higher CFR) than the flu. Typically, when a virus is highly contagious, it's trying to jump from body to body - instead of holing it out in one body and seeking to damage it harder.

When we bring out vaccines, they control the current virus strains. The virus then tries something new: a mutation that will evade the vaccine, the body's immune system or other controls. The UK variant is an example. In the midst of lockdowns and social distancing, it found a way to more easily attach to a new body even if the contact was minimal.

Over time, with enough vaccines and boosters working, the virus will be left with few new tricks. There are also fewer bodies left with which to experiment. But, the vaccines and boosters also lose their efficacy since the aging immune systems become less responsive. It is in this weakened immune phase - and general carelessness - that a new opportunistic virus strikes. COVID-19's high R values (and still worrisome CFRs) make it that virus.

That being said, while I understand some of the virologist's concerns, we are also seeing tremendous advancement in healthcare research, technology and global supply chains. The mRNA vaccines, for instance, are a breakthrough - not only for their efficacy but for how quickly you can repurpose them. It's a fair fight just a year after the pandemic began!

 

[Intr3pid]

That's quite disturbing. Same with the Brazil one.
Have you heard if the vaccines are effective against these variants?
Thanks for contributing to this thread btw. I read your posts and others every day.
This virus is a wild beast isn't it.

It's team work. We are all contributing!

The vaccines so far are all good against severity and hospitalization. The South African variant is a bit of a problem, but the good news is, it's not as contagious as the UK variant. If you had the same number of bodies to infect, the UK variant would get them all before another variant had a chance to jump to them. And the current vaccines are pretty good against the UK variant.

But, yes, I am following this Indian double-mutant closely. The virus situation in that country is quickly spiraling out of control.

 

[BruinEd03]

Yep, the problem being there's less vaccine being shipped this upcoming week. With the Johnson & Johnson problems (bad batches and possible side effects), the amount of vaccine coming to CA is down by something like 81% in J&J vaccine and 15% overall in the state. And more people eligible. They're saying it will take "several weeks" before vaccinations catch up to demand.

If people are willing to drive, there's availability at select CVS in California - actually a lot more places with availability than I've seen in weeks.

 

[brentm77]

Those are some good points the virologist made. My thinking is a bit more neutral on it.

COVID is more contagious (higher R value) and deadlier (higher CFR) than the flu. Typically, when a virus is highly contagious, it's trying to jump from body to body - instead of holing it out in one body and seeking to damage it harder.

When we bring out vaccines, they control the current virus strains. The virus then tries something new: a mutation that will evade the vaccine, the body's immune system or other controls. The UK variant is an example. In the midst of lockdowns and social distancing, it found a way to more easily attach to a new body even if the contact was minimal.

Over time, with enough vaccines and boosters working, the virus will be left with few new tricks. There are also fewer bodies left with which to experiment. But, the vaccines and boosters also lose their efficacy since the aging immune systems become less responsive. It is in this weakened immune phase - and general carelessness - that a new opportunistic virus strikes. COVID-19's high R values (and still worrisome CFRs) make it that virus.

That being said, while I understand some of the virologist's concerns, we are also seeing tremendous advancement in healthcare research, technology and global supply chains. The mRNA vaccines, for instance, are a breakthrough - not only for their efficacy but for how quickly you can repurpose them. It's a fair fight just a year after the pandemic began!

Along these lines, this is a fascinating Radio Lab episode regarding the many different variants British doctors found develop in a single patient when he was exposed to anti-viral drugs:

https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/dispatch-14-covid-crystal-ball

 

[hubbard53]

I think we'll be dealing with mutations like this likely forever. This coronavirus strain is as unstable as Influenza. It keeps changing. And by the time we even identify a new variant, the virus is already spread. There is no time to even try to control it.

Will we ever again have a world that has eliminated SARS-COV-2? Not likely.

yet somehow we've nearly erradicated influenza in the past year!

 

[Maggie'sMom]

yet somehow we've nearly erradicated influenza in the past year!
View attachment 567886

Yes, isn't it surprising that masks, social distancing, and washing your hands works really well against influenza, which spreads through droplets and is significantly less contagious than COVID?

COVID19 continues to spread despite these measures because it is much more contagious than influenza, spreads through aerosols, has a longer incubation period, and asymptomatic/presymptomatic infected people can spread the virus.

Influenza hasn't been eradicated. It will return the next flu season that the public at large isn't practicing these virus mitigation measures.

 

[n2mm]

That's awesome news about Pfizer! Ahhhhh, can't wait to get my daughter vaccinated! I'll be so relieved.

yep, us too. My newly 16 yo granddaughter gets her first shot this week (at school). My other granddaughter turns 16 next week and her shot will be scheduled then. Our 14 yo granddaughter is waiting for the green light. We are very fortunate that not only myself & husband have been fully vaccinated since February. Our adult kids and spouses and my adult grandson and his GF have all taken the jab. None of us had any problems, except one daughter did get covid arm (rash) from moderna. For our family we mostly got Pfizer, 2 got moderna and 1 got JJ. Most are scheduled for #2 next week. All my friends and most of our neighbors are fully vaccinated too.

 

[Garyjames220]

I think we'll be dealing with mutations like this likely forever. This coronavirus strain is as unstable as Influenza. It keeps changing. And by the time we even identify a new variant, the virus is already spread. There is no time to even try to control it.

Will we ever again have a world that has eliminated SARS-COV-2? Not likely. I was reading what a virologist wrote recently about this. And he said the idea that we can vaccinate everyone quickly enough to prevent mutation is not at all realistic. There are too many people in the world and this virus spreads way too quickly. The planet has 7 billion people on it. There is no vaccination program you can implement that can produce enough vaccine quickly enough and inject enough people with it before this virus mutates or the vaccine wears off. It's just not possible. It is a race against nature that man will never win. But beyond that issue, the problem is that the vaccines don't fully stop infection. Most vaccines you can still get the virus and it can still replicate in you, even if you never become sick. The J&J one is also only 70% effective. People have a huge misconceptions on vaccines. They are only tools to help contain a virus and help prevent its spread, they are typically not silver bullets. They are not cures. And they are not 100% effective.

How long do these vaccines last is another issue. We don't know because they aren't old enough to know. Pfizer says all they know right now for sure is that theirs lasts for 6 months at least (6 months from the 2nd shot). Studies have also discovered that people who get COVID and recover maintain some immunity for up to 8 months. So it's very possible these vaccines won't last more than a year because our immune systems don't seem to want to remember this virus for longer than that. So everyone who is vaccinated today will have to get another shot next year.....especially if we are combating new variants. As I said above, this is a race against nature man will never win. And getting everyone to keep their shots up to date every year is going to be a futile exercise, especially if they are a person who does experience a lot of side effects.

We may eventually, possibly, get to a point where we can limit its spread so it doesn't infect 75% of a cruise ship because a single person was infected. We will get better at that. But we are probably never going to eliminate this virus.

all vaccines are so far 100% effective in stopping seviere illness or death which surely is the main thing

 

[Intr3pid]

As I had cautioned previously, the South African variant was able to get through Pfizer's two doses as well:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/cov...-through-pfizer-vaccine-in-israeli-study.html
Here is a link to the study itself:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1
The highlights:
* This study is sourced from the real-life data in Israel.
* The researchers were expecting to see just one (1) case of the South African variant in the vaccinated group using its published efficacy numbers. They found 8 actual cases.
* For each expected case of the UK variant in the vaccinated group, they found 2.6 actual cases.

So, the real-life data is suggesting that the current mRNA vaccines will need to be boosted. And it also means the restrictions will have to remain in place in most international travel.

The study doesn't talk about severity and hospitalization, and I am hoping the results are similar to those from other vaccines - that is, the vaccines work. And that's the truly actionable metric now - at least until the boosters arrive.

 

[Intr3pid]

Simultaneously, the Chinese vaccines are getting a lot of flak. Apparently, their published efficacy numbers don't quite match up to the real-life data.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/chinese-vaccine-effectiveness-not-high
While that doesn't affect people in North America or Europe directly, most cruise staff is sourced from the countries using (or looking to use) the Chinese vaccines - such as:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04...accines-astrazeneca-supply-problems/100057448
The cruise lines may end up sourcing their own vaccines to protect their staff. The best case scenario is that all vaccines can be reconfigured to improve their efficacy - we will need every one of them!