The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[brentm77]

And that sums up your motivation in this debate. That "we don't get ahead of ourselves".

Unfortunately, this lazy approach is exactly the reason why we are here one full year later with the virus and its variants on a rampage. If we had removed these rose-colored glasses last year and acted more decisively sooner, this virus could have been nipped in the bud. The variants needed thousands of live hosts to cultivate, and our "let's not get ahead of ourselves" laziness provided the perfect 'culture' for it.

Understand the costs of the "let's not get ahead" laziness. You ignore the lower efficacy of a vaccine against a variant, you allow that variant to become dominant. You put the booster on a back burner, and you are back to lockdowns next fall. Your jobs, your re-opening, your cruising all have disappeared because of this laziness.

This virus has been ahead of us for all this time. The least we can do is to make an effort to pull ahead. And I am glad those who can make a difference are finally acting now. The leadership everywhere is making the virus a priority. The drug makers are on to the variants and prepping their boosters. The manufacturing is ramping up - with particular credit actually to Pfizer who bit the short-term bullet but decided to retool its manufacturing operations to allow production to get ahead.

Like I said before, no brownie points for restating the past or present. Getting ahead is the only way out of this.

Ok. Well, I have read what you have had to say and am ready to move on. You skip over ever key counterpoint that I rise and make the same argument over and over again.

I'm perfectly comfortable with my reading comprehension. And there is nothing lazy about reading carefully enough to understand what information can be gleaned from a study versus making up facts not in evidence. I don't know why you insist on making this personal time and time again. Your position would appear stronger if you didn't resort to personal attacks.

I don't think other readers would appreciate us dragging this out more and its certainly not fun, entertaining, or intellectually stimulating for me at this point. Others can read what we have both said and make up their own minds. We won't get anywhere by going in circles further.

 

[brentm77]

Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Protects Against U.K., South Africa Variants, Study Shows

Researchers at Pfizer and the University of Texas Medical Branch genetically engineered versions of COVID-19 to carry some of the mutations found in the variant discovered in South Africa and tested them against blood samples taken from 15 people who had received both doses of the virus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

While the blood samples produced fewer neutralizing antibodies, it was still adequate enough to neutralize that strain of COVID-19, the institutions wrote in a letter to the journal.

"There is no clinical evidence to date that the South African variant virus escapes" vaccine protection from COVID-19, Pfizer said. Nevertheless, the company said it is "taking the necessary steps, making the right investments, and engaging in the appropriate conversations with regulators" to develop and seek authorization for an updated vaccine or a booster shot if a variant emerges to which its vaccine proves ineffective.

 

[mevelandry]

The problem with the one-shot-only approach is that the T-cells induced won't have similarly long-term memory. The immunity will be gone next year. Or even sooner if the variants have mutated enough.

I understand that vaccine supplies are tight right now. The short-term approach is to get as many people vaccinated, so we hopefully lower the spread as well. But the real immunity - the key to returning to a new normal - is still very much predicated on getting our two shots.

More on it:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/the...unity-infectious-disease-specialist-says.html

So far, the plan is to give the second shots withing 45 to 90 days (when pharmaceuticals recommended 2 to 3 weeks).

 

[Intr3pid]

I don't know why you insist on making this personal time and time again. Your position would appear stronger if you didn't resort to personal attacks.

Like others have noted as well, you will read what you want to read. Nothing personal about it. It's simply an observation based on your posts.

Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Protects Against U.K., South Africa Variants, Study Shows

Nothing new in this news article. It's just US news' spin on the same study. Like I said, read what you want to read:

https://www.ft.com/content/2eb05859-54c1-45b5-9058-fa50fa6ca7da
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/18/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/
It's best that we don't spam this thread with every news network's take on the same thing. It's fine if you don't want to refer to the actual study, but it's also not difficult to add a bit more value to the discussion with your own analysis.

 

[brentm77]

Like others have noted as well, you will read what you want to read. Nothing personal about it. It's simply an observation based on your posts.


Nothing new in this news article. It's just US news' spin on the same study. Like I said, you will read what you want to read:

https://www.ft.com/content/2eb05859-54c1-45b5-9058-fa50fa6ca7da
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/02/18/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/
It's best that we don't spam this thread with every news network's take on the same thing. It's fine if you don't want to refer to the actual study, but it's also not difficult to add a bit more value to the discussion with your own analysis.

Ok. Thanks for your opinion. I hope you have a happy weekend.

 

[cgolf]

So far, the plan is to give the second shots withing 45 to 90 days (when pharmaceuticals recommended 2 to 3 weeks).

Ignoring the drug companies testing that was done always seems like a great plan. If they had tested this scenario maybe. Hope this doesn't backfire on them. The clinical trials are done for a reason.

 

[mevelandry]

Ignoring the drug companies testing that was done always seems like a great plan. If they had tested this scenario maybe. Hope this doesn't backfire on them. The clinical trials are done for a reason.

The article I posted earlier states that the INSPQ collected data from 33 000 long-term care residents and 173 000 health care workers.

We had not received the vaccines we were supposed to receive for a very long time. They had to make a choice: Let people get sick and die just to make sure the very few who already received the first shot of the vaccine receive their 2nd shot... Or try to protect as many people as possible as fast as possible, hoping they would be able to give the 2nd shot at some point.

Those in charge chose to do the latter. They collected data while doing it, which will be helpful in the future. If you look at the results, it sure looks like it was the right decision (at least temporarily).

 

[AquaDame]

The article I posted earlier states that the INSPQ collected data from 33 000 long-term care residents and 173 000 health care workers.

We had not received the vaccines we were supposed to receive for a very long time. They had to make a choice: Let people get sick and die just to make sure the very few who already received the first shot of the vaccine receive their 2nd shot... Or try to protect as many people as possible as fast as possible, hoping they would be able to give the 2nd shot at some point.

Those in charge chose to do the latter. They collected data while doing it, which will be helpful in the future. If you look at the results, it sure looks like it was the right decision (at least temporarily).

I don't think anyone doubted that having just one shot would offer some protection, the studies have said as much, but this seems very haphazard to ignore prescribed dosages for short term benefits. We knew it wasn't full effectiveness, and we know it may well lead to more variants. Someone just decided they don't care. As with any gamble, we'll see, but I sincerely hope when my turn comes this summer ( )I am able to get a FULL round of the shot in the time period proven to have maximum effectiveness.

 

[mevelandry]

I don't think anyone doubted that having just one shot would offer some protection, the studies have said as much, but this seems very haphazard to ignore prescribed dosages for short term benefits. We knew it wasn't full effectiveness, and we know it may well lead to more variants. Someone just decided they don't care. As with any gamble, we'll see, but I sincerely hope when my turn comes this summer ( )I am able to get a FULL round of the shot in the time period proven to have maximum effectiveness.

We are not the only nation who made that choice. I believe others (like the UK) have done the same.

While the USA’s vaccine roll out is a huge success, our roll out is only happening drop by drop. We aren’t even at 1,5 millions yet in Canada... Not because we don’t have the facilities or the people, we do, we just don’t have the vaccines yet. If we are lucky we’ll have received 6 millions by the end of March.

The studies (so far) seem to show that the impacts of the delay are not dramatic. The data we are collecting while doing it will definitely have an impact on vaccination all around the world, in the future...

I’m hoping to hear that receiving one shot AND wearing a mask slows down the spreading of the virus... My in-laws and stepfather should receive their 1st shot this spring and I doubt DH and I will be eligible to receive our 1st shot before june/july. I’m just hoping people will be safe from hospitalization/death as soon as possible.

On top of that, from what I understand (heard this on the news) they are already working on future vaccines that would work against the new variants... So, for people who have received only one shot so far, their 2nd shots could end up being quite the booster if the vaccines have been updated by then!

 

[Intr3pid]

FDA will not require a large clinical study to approve modified vaccines against the new variants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/cov...ed-large-clinical-trials-to-win-approval.html
This is good news since it means the likes of Pfizer and Moderna - whose vaccines are already shipping - don't have to divert resources away to a drawn-out process of securing approvals. Similarly, those in the clinical trials currently can adapt the trials to include data against the variants - much like what J&J has already done. It also suggests that FDA doesn't seem to mind the lower efficacy against the new variants as long as it's above their minimum 50%.

There is an approval needed, however, so expect a few submissions/news releases from the incumbents shortly.

 

[brentm77]

FDA will not require a large clinical study to approve modified vaccines against the new variants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/cov...ed-large-clinical-trials-to-win-approval.html
This is good news since it means the likes of Pfizer and Moderna - whose vaccines are already shipping - don't have to divert resources away to a drawn-out process of securing approvals. Similarly, those in the clinical trials currently can adapt the trials to include data against the variants - much like what J&J has already done. It also suggests that FDA doesn't seem to mind the lower efficacy against the new variants as long as it's above their minimum 50%.

There is an approval needed, however, so expect a few submissions/news releases from the incumbents shortly.

That's great news. I was reading a headline from one year ago, today, that said the vaccine was "years away." One expert I heard on a podcast was predicting 3-4 years last summer. It still amazes me how quickly it was developed and produced, but even more, how effective it is.

 

[Missingmypooh]

FDA will not require a large clinical study to approve modified vaccines against the new variants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/cov...ed-large-clinical-trials-to-win-approval.html
This is good news since it means the likes of Pfizer and Moderna - whose vaccines are already shipping - don't have to divert resources away to a drawn-out process of securing approvals. Similarly, those in the clinical trials currently can adapt the trials to include data against the variants - much like what J&J has already done. It also suggests that FDA doesn't seem to mind the lower efficacy against the new variants as long as it's above their minimum 50%.

There is an approval needed, however, so expect a few submissions/news releases from the incumbents shortly.

Do I think this ends well? In 2021 yes.

do I think this sets an incredibly dangerous precedent with testing and licensing that could catch up to us one day? Also yes.

I *truly* hope this particular booster plays out well for everyone. I’m still curious regarding ADE based on the animal studies (not necessarily an issue with the first two, but what about adding a booster?), the long term efficacy (does this mean yearly boosters? I know it’s been tossed around), only a passive reporting system for Adverse events (again, not a big problem for first two, but third fourth or fifth down the line? Could it be like the miscarriage risk of the flu back in 2017?) the speed with which new technology was developed as portrayed by the media (mRNA was being tested for many years!! But hardly discussed that this was the case. Many people around me truly believe it was made out of thin air! )
this could be ****very**** good news if things go well and very bad is something happens because with “warp speed” being the name everyone heard, it would not bode well for public confidence. I wish they would have never named it that and now to continue at “warp speed” when they would have likely done this same speed anyways will be interesting to read in the history books (all about perspective!) we certainly don’t need a modern day ‘cutter incident’. Social media would be an absolute war zone.

 

[WishUponAStarryNight]

CT governor just announced updated distribution plans. Aside from teachers, daycare workers and other in school workers who will have their own dedicated clinics, all eligibility is age-based. Distribution is scheduled to be open to everyone 16+ by May 3.

 

[brentm77]

More good news on the vaccine front. South Africa is moving forward with huge orders of J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines:

South Africa's health minister said on Tuesday that government advisers had grouped COVID-19 vaccines into three groups and those considered for "immediate use" were the Johnson & Johnson (J&J), Pfizer and Moderna shots.

The country started rolling out the J&J vaccine in a research study targeting healthcare workers last week and hopes to receive Pfizer doses in the coming months.

It has paused AstraZeneca vaccinations because of a small trial showing the British company's shot offered minimal protection against mild to moderate illness caused by the dominant local coronavirus variant.

Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said the government had placed "huge orders on J&J and Pfizer which will be finalised in the next few days and announced when concluded", adding that discussions with Moderna were ongoing.

 

[Intr3pid]

More good news on the vaccine front. South Africa is moving forward with huge orders of J&J, Moderna, and Pfizer vaccines:

It's a bit of a mixed bag.

White it's great news that South Africans will finally be getting vaccines to go into their arms - after their government went all in with AZ's order - it puts a cloud over AZ's vaccine. South Africa has an existing supply of AstraZeneca's vaccine that they aren't touching.

AZ's vaccine is supposed to be the mass-produced, cost-effective vaccine for the broader world - and also constitutes the lion's share of COVAX supplies. COVAX is the primary source of vaccination for several countries, particularly in the Caribbeans and from where the cruise staff is recruited.

AZ thinks a modified version can be cranked out by the fall, and we really need it to pull through!

 

[brentm77]

It's a bit of a mixed bag.

White it's great news that South Africans will finally be getting vaccines to go into their arms - after their government went all in with AZ's order - it puts a cloud over AZ's vaccine. South Africa has an existing supply of AstraZeneca's vaccine that they aren't touching.

AZ's vaccine is supposed to be the mass-produced, cost-effective vaccine for the broader world - and also constitutes the lion's share of COVAX supplies. COVAX is the primary source of vaccination for several countries, particularly in the Caribbeans and from where the cruise staff is recruited.

AZ thinks a modified version can be cranked out by the fall, and we really need it to pull through!

I don't disagree. But the Astra news was known for some time now. It's good news that they are able to get "huge" replacement orders in and have J&J rolling out to front lines now. Global success on the vaccine front is going to help everyone in the long term.

What's your opinion on whether the U.S. should be vaccinating down to low-risk groups (i.e. everyone who wants it), versus helping other countries get their high-risk groups first? I haven't formed a strong opinion on that issue, but it seems logistically easier/more efficient to focus on your own country before branching out.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

It's a bit of a mixed bag.

White it's great news that South Africans will finally be getting vaccines to go into their arms - after their government went all in with AZ's order - it puts a cloud over AZ's vaccine. South Africa has an existing supply of AstraZeneca's vaccine that they aren't touching.

AZ's vaccine is supposed to be the mass-produced, cost-effective vaccine for the broader world - and also constitutes the lion's share of COVAX supplies. COVAX is the primary source of vaccination for several countries, particularly in the Caribbeans and from where the cruise staff is recruited.

AZ thinks a modified version can be cranked out by the fall, and we really need it to pull through!

I don't disagree. But the Astra news was known for some time now. It's good news that they are able to get "huge" replacement orders in and have J&J rolling out to front lines now. Global success on the vaccine front is going to help everyone in the long term.

What's your opinion on whether the U.S. should be vaccinating down to low-risk groups (i.e. everyone who wants it), versus helping other countries get their high-risk groups first? I haven't formed a strong opinion on that issue, but it seems logistically easier/more efficient to focus on your own country before branching out.

It's great that Pfizer/BNT can fulfill these new orders and aren't foreseeing major manufacturing snags. Same for J&J and Moderna. Luckily, the UK is still pretty confident in the AZ vaccine, and their current pandemic curve is showing they aren't entirely wrong in their confidence. Maybe for said COVAX nations, it wouldn't be so bad to divert South Africa's supply and utilize COVAX's money (including the new USA pump of cash) and start getting UNESCO or Doctors w/o Borders into those areas.

 

[Intr3pid]

I don't disagree. But the Astra news was known for some time now. It's good news that they are able to get "huge" replacement orders in and have J&J rolling out to front lines now. Global success on the vaccine front is going to help everyone in the long term.

What's your opinion on whether the U.S. should be vaccinating down to low-risk groups (i.e. everyone who wants it), versus helping other countries get their high-risk groups first? I haven't formed a strong opinion on that issue, but it seems logistically easier/more efficient to focus on your own country before branching out.

AZ missing from the new orders - is what the concern is. I very much agree it's good news for the South Africans (and the world) that vaccines are going to get into the arms.

I think it's fair to help others for two key reasons:

1. The US and UK cases are dropping very fast because they were just so bad. There are diminishing returns, however, as Israel's experience is showing. If we ignore the spread in another part of the world, new variants will be out before long. And you will be back to vaccinating your own population.

2. Our trade has economic benefits - and closed borders don't help anyone. Shutting out others will also move them to produce domestically - and would have the long-term effects on global competition. China and Russia are playing this long game. Mexico, for example, is already Russia's vaccine customer.

How far down the risk spectrum you go domestically is predicated on the options. If a treatment was also at hand, I would be more comfortable sharing the vaccines early. If the vaccine production was inside our border (= control), I would be more comfortable sharing. If the domestic spread was under control, I would be more comfortable. Or,, say, if the domestic economy already recovered, etc.

 

[Intr3pid]

So, we have early indications of how businesses may bring vaccination into the fold. Best Buy to give additional paid time off to the vaccinated employees:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/best-buy-gives-pandemic-related-bonuses-amid-company-layoffs.html
Right now, it looks like a carrot. Let's see if or when it changes into a stick.

 

[sabrecmc]

J&J vaccine gets emergency approval:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1364576885926076416