The Vaccine Discussion Thread

[jane01jp]

Here is a link to an article about the poll on vaccine willingness: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...vaccine-divided-timing-poll/story?id=74703426.

More than eight in 10 Americans say they would receive the vaccine, with 40% saying they would take it as soon as it's available to them and 44% saying they would wait a bit before getting it.

Only 15% said they would refuse the vaccine entirely in the new survey, which was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel -- a reflection of growing confidence in the rapidly-developed vaccine, which marks a long-awaited turning point amid an unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic.

I think as we go along, more people will feel comfortable. I hope so, anyway.

I can only speak to my personal experience, so all of this will be anecdotal to the intermountain west where I live. But here goes:

You're asking the right questions, but in the peak we're in it's difficult to do nothing. I think a lot of the nation's shut downs were premature in certain areas, without clear direction on what to do next. It has allowed for a lot of the fear (not mongering) that you describe. Curfews and even some/majority masking has proven to help. I still think indoor dining should be scaled back just a touch more, but could be deemed a hypocrite by some because my family and I enjoy one or two meals out weekly. Our theater of choice is a ghost town in normal times because we prefer smaller production film to blockbusters, and since reopening we are one of maybe 5 couples in a theater that seats about 150. My DS x2 are in person school because that is absolutely the best decision for most kids, and mine in particular. My point is you and I are probably in the same camp that if Wal-Mart and Costco can be open, and news anchors can be in studio, there's no reason to believe the neighborhood clothing boutique is inherently dangerous. That is absolutely a gap in the narrative.

I'm more than willing to listen to any and all. There are other crises beyond one virus, and my work with traumas has gone up considerably in the past 8 months (I'm a specialized tech in surgery). However, those same people (many my friends) need to understand (locally, again), that our hospital that provides care from northern Wyoming to western North Dakota to Great Falls, MT, is at 110% capacity and that hasn't gone down in weeks. We're still providing care to all specialties, not just COVID, but to think difficult decisions aren't on the horizon is a bit head in the sand.

Your last two questions are perhaps the most important in the next few months. I hope states start reporting how many people have been vaccinated in their state dashboards. If it can be directly tied that vaccination is providing relief from hospitalizations and death, we can "live" with the virus. At that point, but not now, I'll be right there with you picketing for a pretty quick change in direction (and to be back on a ship, gosh darn it). A lot of the same questions were asked by the GP from 1917-1920. But remember that just three short years later F Scott Fitzgerald had enough material to write The Great Gatsby. Socialization isn't going anywhere, but the fastest way to get back to it at this point is an effective vaccine. Here's to praying the ones we're getting really are just as the early data shows.

Thanks for your thoughtful response.

 

[jane01jp]

I can only speak to my personal experience, so all of this will be anecdotal to the intermountain west where I live. But here goes:

You're asking the right questions, but in the peak we're in it's difficult to do nothing. I think a lot of the nation's shut downs were premature in certain areas, without clear direction on what to do next. It has allowed for a lot of the fear (not mongering) that you describe. Curfews and even some/majority masking has proven to help. I still think indoor dining should be scaled back just a touch more, but could be deemed a hypocrite by some because my family and I enjoy one or two meals out weekly. Our theater of choice is a ghost town in normal times because we prefer smaller production film to blockbusters, and since reopening we are one of maybe 5 couples in a theater that seats about 150. My DS x2 are in person school because that is absolutely the best decision for most kids, and mine in particular. My point is you and I are probably in the same camp that if Wal-Mart and Costco can be open, and news anchors can be in studio, there's no reason to believe the neighborhood clothing boutique is inherently dangerous. That is absolutely a gap in the narrative.

I'm more than willing to listen to any and all. There are other crises beyond one virus, and my work with traumas has gone up considerably in the past 8 months (I'm a specialized tech in surgery). However, those same people (many my friends) need to understand (locally, again), that our hospital that provides care from northern Wyoming to western North Dakota to Great Falls, MT, is at 110% capacity and that hasn't gone down in weeks. We're still providing care to all specialties, not just COVID, but to think difficult decisions aren't on the horizon is a bit head in the sand.

Your last two questions are perhaps the most important in the next few months. I hope states start reporting how many people have been vaccinated in their state dashboards. If it can be directly tied that vaccination is providing relief from hospitalizations and death, we can "live" with the virus. At that point, but not now, I'll be right there with you picketing for a pretty quick change in direction (and to be back on a ship, gosh darn it). A lot of the same questions were asked by the GP from 1917-1920. But remember that just three short years later F Scott Fitzgerald had enough material to write The Great Gatsby. Socialization isn't going anywhere, but the fastest way to get back to it at this point is an effective vaccine. Here's to praying the ones we're getting really are just as the early data shows.

One other thing: I think question 3 is really critical. People have largely complied with the mandates. Compliance with masks is at around 80%, and has consistently been in that range since July. Blaming citizens for the failures of these policies is causing unnecessary strife among us. But, our leaders likely prefer that to taking personal accountability for their actions.

 

[sethschroeder]

Here is a link to an article about the poll on vaccine willingness: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ame...vaccine-divided-timing-poll/story?id=74703426.

More than eight in 10 Americans say they would receive the vaccine, with 40% saying they would take it as soon as it's available to them and 44% saying they would wait a bit before getting it.

Only 15% said they would refuse the vaccine entirely in the new survey, which was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel -- a reflection of growing confidence in the rapidly-developed vaccine, which marks a long-awaited turning point amid an unrelenting COVID-19 pandemic.

I think as we go along, more people will feel comfortable. I hope so, anyway.

Ya as outlined its fairly vague. I would suspect long term if COVID19 were to stick around we will see around 90% vaccination if side effects turn out to be minor and rare. You have with children MMR vaccines over 90% which I think the difference between the 84% in the poll vs 90% is simply either data collection bias or those who already had COVID19 personally opting out.

I think the big question is how long is waiting for the 44%.

 

[sethschroeder]

Just regarding vaccination mandates by employers:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html

Mandatory vaccination protocols, however, may not happen until the FDA formally approves the vaccines and grants Pfizer and BioNTech or Moderna a license to sell them, which will take several more months of data to show their safety and effectiveness.

“An emergency use authorization is not a license,” said Reiss. “There’s a legal question as to whether you can mandate an emergency observation. The language in the act is somewhat unclear on that.”

Could a business get away with mandates for customers without a mandate for employees?

 

[jane01jp]

Just regarding vaccination mandates by employers:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html


Could a business get away with mandates for customers without a mandate for employees?

That's a great question.

Here is another report of reluctance of some health care workers and firefighters to take the vaccines:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...edical-workers-to-balk-at-getting-the-vaccine

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Just regarding vaccination mandates by employers:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/covid-vaccine-side-effects-compensation-lawsuit.html


Could a business get away with mandates for customers without a mandate for employees?

That's a great question.

Here is another report of reluctance of some health care workers and firefighters to take the vaccines:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...edical-workers-to-balk-at-getting-the-vaccine

My hospital won’t mandate it right now. They’ve made it clear that it’s encouraged for the frontline, but legal has very obviously helped write the language.

For cruising, the question we need to ask is, will other nations require it? Or, will our own CDC not lift conditional sail orders without it? I see the former as very likely.

 

[lanejudy]

For cruising, the question we need to ask is, will other nations require it? Or, will our own CDC not lift conditional sail orders without it? I see the former as very likely.

I think it's going to be other countries that require a vaccine, not necessarily a requirement of the cruiselines/ships (for U.S. departures - Europe is another story). So if a Caribbean nation requires the vaccine, it will be necessary for anyone on that cruise. But mandatory in the U.S. is likely a few years away as they need that much time to watch for post-vaccination effects and formally approve a vaccine.

Plus at this time neither vaccines have EUA for kids (Pfizer age 16+ and Moderna is age 18+). With the younger demographic of DCL's customers, that factor may delay their restart if vaccines become mandatory at destination ports.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

I think it's going to be other countries that require a vaccine, not necessarily a requirement of the cruiselines/ships (for U.S. departures - Europe is another story). So if a Caribbean nation requires the vaccine, it will be necessary for anyone on that cruise. But mandatory in the U.S. is likely a few years away as they need that much time to watch for post-vaccination effects and formally approve a vaccine.

Plus at this time neither vaccines have EUA for kids (Pfizer age 16+ and Moderna is age 18+). With the younger demographic of DCL's customers, that factor may delay their restart if vaccines become mandatory at destination ports.

Yes, because of the Caribbean islands’ likely/assumed requirements, don’t be surprised to see the cruise lines’ hand be forced in this regard. Let’s assume the Bahamas requires it. DCL gets forced on almost every FL itinerary because of CC.

Your point on the age requirement is valid, but I don’t foresee the issue. Even on DCL, if ALL officers and crew are vaccinated, as well as any passenger over 16, the % vaccinated on that cruise so drastically cuts the risk of outbreak that a bubble is easily maintained. It is also why I see masks in indoor kids’ activities sticking around longer than anything else.

Finally, one last point of minutia: the full approval process won’t be years from now, more like summer. Different (younger) age groups will be studied and be “tacked on” to the approvals as appropriate. Follow up will go on for years, but that isn’t the same thing as obtaining full licensure.

 

[sethschroeder]

For cruising, the question we need to ask is, will other nations require it? Or, will our own CDC not lift conditional sail orders without it? I see the former as very likely.

I am not sure the CDC could require a COVID19 vaccine requirement as part of lifting sail orders. Thats about exactly opposite of my thought as the CDC a government entity would be forcing a vaccination on a private business and by extension private citizens.

Even if the CDC tried I think it would receive challenges from private citizens, state/local government, and from companies. After all you are talking about a large portion of the US Cruises that starts/ends in Florida who isn't exactly California.

Yes, because of the Caribbean islands’ likely/assumed requirements

Why do we assume they will require it? Has there been any government coming out saying they are likely to require it?

 

[sullivan.kscott]

I am not sure the CDC could require a COVID19 vaccine requirement as part of lifting sail orders. Thats about exactly opposite of my thought as the CDC a government entity would be forcing a vaccination on a private business and by extension private citizens.



Why do we assume they will require it? Has there been any government coming out saying they are likely to require it?

I agree on the CDC. Was just spitballing possibilities. It’s a bit out of their scope.

As to other nations: they haven’t outright said it yet. But the Caymans in particular are very stringent (like New Zealand or Australia) as to who is coming in right now. BVI have been similar. So I do think it’s a real possibility it gets required by at least one nation.

If one port of call in a given itinerary requires it, that’s all it takes. And it could go a step further that they require “clean” ships for a period prior to arrival. So, take Cayman or Tortola. The way Fantasy rotates weekly, just on of those requiring a clean/quarantine type environment prior to arrival is all it would take.

Is it possible it doesn’t happen? Sure. Am I going to be shocked that small, impoverished islands require something like I’ve laid out? Not at all.

 

[sethschroeder]

Part of this is if the specific cruise line wants to take the heat for the countries or not.

As to other nations: they haven’t outright said it yet. But the Caymans in particular are very stringent (like New Zealand or Australia) as to who is coming in right now. BVI have been similar. So I do think it’s a real possibility it gets required by at least one nation.

I think it really would need to be the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Dominican Republic coming together to require it and then smaller countries could then have a harder stance as far as cruise ships go. Smaller port countries may also take an aggressive stance as a way to actually attract tourists (uptick in air travel while they put some risk on losing cruise ships).

If one port of call in a given itinerary requires it, that’s all it takes.

For that specific cruise and guests would be informed its that countries requirement. Then possibly based on demand they cut the specific port from itineraries.

The way Fantasy rotates weekly, just on of those requiring a clean/quarantine type environment prior to arrival is all it would take.

With Disney its even dead simpler to simply cut out ports from your routes since they have so few ships. Also if a "clean ship" is required they could change the rotating to where the Fantasy and Dream hand off 7 day trips with only 1 of them visiting vaccine required ports.

 

[jane01jp]

Part of this is if the specific cruise line wants to take the heat for the countries or not.



I think it really would need to be the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Dominican Republic coming together to require it and then smaller countries could then have a harder stance as far as cruise ships go. Smaller port countries may also take an aggressive stance as a way to actually attract tourists (uptick in air travel while they put some risk on losing cruise ships).



For that specific cruise and guests would be informed its that countries requirement. Then possibly based on demand they cut the specific port from itineraries.



With Disney its even dead simpler to simply cut out ports from your routes since they have so few ships. Also if a "clean ship" is required they could change the rotating to where the Fantasy and Dream hand off 7 day trips with only 1 of them visiting vaccine required ports.

Great discussion.

I would expect to see China's growing influence in the Caribbean be reflected in very stringent COVID policies in much of that region. Below is a good recent article from the NYT on China's growing influence in the Caribbean:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/world/americas/china-caribbean.html

 

[lanejudy]

Finally, one last point of minutia: the full approval process won’t be years from now, more like summer. Different (younger) age groups will be studied and be “tacked on” to the approvals as appropriate. Follow up will go on for years, but that isn’t the same thing as obtaining full licensure.

I was not referring to additional age groups as "full" FDA approval. I expect those will be added to the EUA as trials move forward for those ages. Phase 3 clinical trials for vaccines typically take 2-4 years before licensure and those trials are required to continue. EUA doesn't mean a fast-track to licensure. That kind of follow-up simply cannot be done in a shorter time period. It is still considered investigational.

Since other countries have different laws and approval processes, I do expect at least some will require vaccination to enter those countries. That will impact cruisers from the US and everywhere.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

One of my friends got the vax the other day. She reports standard injection site ache, but says she has not felt a need to go be a zombie and eat brains.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...red-to-take-vaccine-until-fdas-full-approval/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-fda-idUSKBN28K2Z5


Full approval may come as soon as April (a bit ambitious in my opinion), but within seven months more likely. FDA requires eight months from second dose for phase 3 participants and that data to be tabulated prior to full application. The follow up continues for a minimum of four years, but full labeled approval may come sooner than that.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Received dose one from Pfizer about two hours ago. I'm not sure if the viscosity of the vaccine is higher than the flu shot, but I could definitely feel it goin in the arm. Similar sensation to a TB skin test if anyone has that experience, or like having your mouth numbed for dental work (I always feel that local goin in). But not uncomfortable. Arm is already just a little sore, but I'm a little sensitive to IM injections, anyway. For reference, I was sore for almost three days after my flu shot in October. It was a bit surreal watching the assembly line of doses being drawn up at a table in the other side of the room. Almost felt like being in the images of the Polio vaccine blitz.

 

[AquaDame]

Received dose one from Pfizer about two hours ago. I'm not sure if the viscosity of the vaccine is higher than the flu shot, but I could definitely feel it goin in the arm. Similar sensation to a TB skin test if anyone has that experience, or like having your mouth numbed for dental work (I always feel that local goin in). But not uncomfortable. Arm is already just a little sore, but I'm a little sensitive to IM injections, anyway. For reference, I was sore for almost three days after my flu shot in October. It was a bit surreal watching the assembly line of doses being drawn up at a table in the other side of the room. Almost felt like being in the images of the Polio vaccine blitz.

Yeah that is interesting... I almost always am sore in my arm from the normal flu shot for a couple of days but feel nothing from the TB test (the bubble under my skin is a little surreal at first though!). I certainly feel the localized anesthetic at the dentists office more than both of those... sharp pinch and then feel the liquid going in...

 

[DisneYE]

Received dose one from Pfizer about two hours ago. I'm not sure if the viscosity of the vaccine is higher than the flu shot, but I could definitely feel it goin in the arm. Similar sensation to a TB skin test if anyone has that experience, or like having your mouth numbed for dental work (I always feel that local goin in). But not uncomfortable. Arm is already just a little sore, but I'm a little sensitive to IM injections, anyway. For reference, I was sore for almost three days after my flu shot in October. It was a bit surreal watching the assembly line of doses being drawn up at a table in the other side of the room. Almost felt like being in the images of the Polio vaccine blitz.

Please keep us updated on how you feel or if any side effects.
I'm kind of watching reactions and side effects from the bleachers since I'm not comfortable taking the vaccine.
Not anti-vaccer at all, but twice I've got the flu shot (last time 10 or so yrs ago) and I got incredibly sick both times.. the last one I was sick as a dog & in bed for 2+ weeks, felt I was going to die... Had a bad reaction to it, not immuno-compromised.

 

[sullivan.kscott]

Please keep us updated on how you feel or if any side effects.
I'm kind of watching reactions and side effects from the bleachers since I'm not comfortable taking the vaccine.
Not anti-vaccer at all, but twice I've got the flu shot (last time 10 or so yrs ago) and I got incredibly sick both times.. the last one I was sick as a dog & in bed for 2+ weeks, felt I was going to die... Had a bad reaction to it, not immuno-compromised.

Will do. And don’t blame you at all. If you, or anyone else, is at all up to it, I’d strongly urge trying the flu vaccine again. Since you last got it, they’ve made some pretty big advances, the biggest being growth media for the virus itself. As opposed to egg whites preserved in thimerosol (which were culprits for a lot of the garbage feelings I can fully relate to), most manufacturers now use plant cell growth media that is far better tolerated. As an added benefit, people with egg sensitivity like my wife are now eligible for the newer vaccines.
This year’s flu shot is a “quad” (four strains), so the injection site side effects have been reported to be a little more pronounced, but being laid up in bed like days of old hasn’t been a widely reported issue.
Not trying to sway one way or the other unless you have a history of pneumonia or something. But definitely talk to your PCP or pharmacist.

 

[DisneYE]

Will do. And don’t blame you at all. If you, or anyone else, is at all up to it, I’d strongly urge trying the flu vaccine again. Since you last got it, they’ve made some pretty big advances, the biggest being growth media for the virus itself. As opposed to egg whites preserved in thimerosol (which were culprits for a lot of the garbage feelings I can fully relate to), most manufacturers now use plant cell growth media that is far better tolerated. As an added benefit, people with egg sensitivity like my wife are now eligible for the newer vaccines.
This year’s flu shot is a “quad” (four strains), so the injection site side effects have been reported to be a little more pronounced, but being laid up in bed like days of old hasn’t been a widely reported issue.
Not trying to sway one way or the other unless you have a history of pneumonia or something. But definitely talk to your PCP or pharmacist.

Thank you. Much appreciated.
Are the newer flu shots you speak of all non-egg whites preserved? I'll check with my family doc.
Are you a physician ? you sound very knowledgeable