The State Department advises U.S. citizens to reconsider foreign travel - update on 3/11, page 8.

[spiders]

You're going to be altering your life whether you like it or not, because governments won't agree with your assessment. I'm suggesting that people be prepared for that reality. Like the people of Italy who currently can't leave their country or even their region without being stopped from doing so.

And you’re also finding out that you aren’t the government and no one is going to follow your expectations.

I have 6 weeks of sick leave. By your standard, my commute to work is non-essential. Guess what? I’m going to work. I went on the Wonder last month. Did I have to? Nope but I did. Tough.

 

[Intr3pid]

Which backs up my point, data collected of those who have been tested show lower infection in children in total numbers compared to the total group. They are not stating though children get sick less when in the same environment.

They are not stating any COVID-19 conclusions here - other than simply removing the fear that children may be at an elevated risk. What they ARE confirming is that the data you see in the chart I posted is real. They are confirming the fewer instances of cases in children.

If children get less severe infections more often (which the CDC states as possible) then they will be tested less leading to less cases reported.

The only thing the CDC confirmed is that children are notore susceptible than anyone else.

Again my only thing is that there is no direct statement saying children are for sure at less of a risk. So trying to say such is wreck less in my opinion.

One last thing the CDC even states from limited information from other cornavirus diseases but not COVID-19 is where they are getting a possible hypothesis. Those previous diseases they outline had 2500 MERs and 8100 SARs cases. That is a tiny minute sample size which they outline as such in how they define its a possibility but not even close to a fact.

First of all, 8,000 is a large enough sample size in any researcher's books.

Secondly, there is no evidence of the bolded part. Less testing = the reason behid fewers instances of infection = pure speculation. Most of Hubei has been exposed to the incidence of virus. Most adult and most children. The results are what you see in the chart I posted. At the moment, the virus is nearly finished in that part of the world. Those numbers are all we are going to see. Similarly, the Shenzhen CDC research confirms full testing of ALL close contacts of an infected patient. - incl. children Those numbers are too little to put any sort of confidence, but the process is consistent across all CDC.

And - let me reiterate - the only aggregate COVID-19 data that we know of gives us a 3% infection rate vs a 20% population makeup. Explaining that difference with just the lack of testing is what's irresponsible.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

And you’re also finding out that you aren’t the government and no one is going to follow your expectations.

I have 6 weeks of sick leave. By your standard, my commute to work is non-essential. Guess what? I’m going to work. I went on the Wonder last month. Did I have to? Nope but I did. Tough.

Look, you don't have to follow the government's recommendations for precautions, and you are certainly free to only care about how this epidemic affects yourself and no one else. I'm not trying to get this thread shut down by saying what I personally think about your stance.

Reporting indicates that the CDC wanted to encourage seniors and vulnerable people to avoid all non-essential travel, including flights and and especially cruises. Healthy younger people who are concerned about inadvertently infecting vulnerable populations should follow the guidelines. Eventually, there may be regional or even countrywide quarantines the way that there have been in China, Italy, and New Rochelle, New York (as of today). To not be caught off-guard, some preparation would be prudent for that possibility.

And I would like to offer that my willingness to face the reality as it presents itself, rather than stick my head in the sand and pretend like my life won't change, would indicate that perhaps I am not the one who is scared.

 

[spiders]

Look, you don't have to follow the government's recommendations for precautions, and you are certainly free to only care about how this epidemic affects yourself and no one else. I'm not trying to get this thread shut down by saying what I personally think about your stance.

Reporting indicates that the CDC wanted to encourage seniors and vulnerable people to avoid all non-essential travel, including flights and and especially cruises. Healthy younger people who are concerned about inadvertently infecting vulnerable populations should follow the guidelines. Eventually, there may be regional or even countrywide quarantines the way that there have been in China, Italy, and New Rochelle, New York (as of today). To not be caught off-guard, some preparation would be prudent for that possibility.

And I would like to offer that my willingness to face the reality as it presents itself, rather than stick my head in the sand and pretend like my life won't change, would indicate that perhaps I am not the one who is scared.

You first talk about the difference between essential and non-essential travel and how people cannot afford to not take public transportation because they need to feed their kids so somehow standing shoulder to shoulder in subway car is now somehow safer. Meanwhile, last time I checked, people in the travel & hospitality industry also have these things called bills. It is not up to you to determine what is essential and non-essential. Now you keep talking about region-wide or nationwide government mandated quarantines that have not actually happened in the United States so it's pure speculation on your part.

You're from New York, right? Guess what? New York has it.

Name me one disease where seniors and immune compromised individuals are not at a greater risk...

Whatever, though -- you do you. You are the only person that you can control. So if you want to stay in your house for the next several months then you are free to do so.

 

[Coffee66]

I'm glad everyone is discussing this with a rational and cool head
I love a good discussion. I only wish people wouldn't get easily offended when people disagree with them. I love the post. Thank you for being strong. Yes USA strong

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

Now you keep talking about region-wide or nationwide government mandated quarantines that have not actually happened in the United States so it's pure speculation on your part.

You're from New York, right? Guess what? New York has it.

The National Guard has been called in to enforce a mandatory two week quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. I don't live in NYC anymore, but if I did, I would certainly have enough supplies for a two week quarantine if I could afford to do so. That's just being sensible given the reality on the ground.

 

[Coffee66]

You first talk about the difference between essential and non-essential travel and how people cannot afford to not take public transportation because they need to feed their kids so somehow standing shoulder to shoulder in subway car is now somehow safer. Meanwhile, last time I checked, people in the travel & hospitality industry also have these things called bills. It is not up to you to determine what is essential and non-essential. Now you keep talking about region-wide or nationwide government mandated quarantines that have not actually happened in the United States so it's pure speculation on your part.

You're from New York, right? Guess what? New York has it.

Name me one disease where seniors and immune compromised individuals are not at a greater risk...

Whatever, though -- you do you. You are the only person that you can control. So if you want to stay in your house for the next several months then you are free to do so.

Your what the doctor ordered

 

[Coffee66]

The National Guard has been called in to enforce a mandatory two week quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. I don't live in NYC anymore, but if I did, I would certainly have enough supplies for a two week quarantine if I could afford to do so. That's just being sensible given the reality on the ground.

Always keep a supply of frozen pizzas. I recommend and have 10 in the freezer. It's March madness

 

[Numtini]

We're foodies. We have two weeks of food just based on having five different kinds of rice and four different kinds of dried beans.

 

[Coffee66]

We're foodies. We have two weeks of food just based on having five different kinds of rice and four different kinds of dried beans.

Sounds yummy... Not really. I like frozen pizza and plenty of coffee and frozen food like veggies and fruit

 

[mmmears]

We're foodies. We have two weeks of food just based on having five different kinds of rice and four different kinds of dried beans.

When my DD's iPhone went for a swim I gave her the choice of a baggie filled with either dry arborio or carnaroli. That was all I had on hand but it worked. I tend to have a couple week's worth of ingredients on hand as well.

 

[Numtini]

Sounds yummy... Not really. I like frozen pizza and plenty of coffee and frozen food like veggies and fruit

We just made a note to ourselves to buy more coffee and maybe one of those shelf table boxes of 1/2 and 1/2.

And you don't know what I can do with beans and rice, a little stock, and my spice cabinet!

 

[Cliffside]

The National Guard has been called in to enforce a mandatory two week quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. I don't live in NYC anymore, but if I did, I would certainly have enough supplies for a two week quarantine if I could afford to do so. That's just being sensible given the reality on the ground.

It’s not a true quarantine. People are allowed to move around. Stores are opened. There is a one mile radius where they are trying to contain the spread.

 

[Coffee66]

We just made a note to ourselves to buy more coffee and maybe one of those shelf table boxes of 1/2 and 1/2.

And you don't know what I can do with beans and rice, a little stock, and my spice cabinet!

It sounds good. I like steak and veggies

 

[sethschroeder]

They are confirming the fewer instances of cases in children.

Correct but that does not mean children are less susceptible..... Which I have been saying is my point since the start. There is no data tangibly showing that children when exposed to the virus will not catch it in comparison to those who older.

All they have right now is data of tests taken that show older people are getting tested and confirmed to have COVID-19 in larger numbers than kids.

First of all, 8,000 is a large enough sample size in any researcher's books.

Except its not a controlled 8000 and its not in a specific disease and its not fully accurate information as its probable cases.

Hence why the CDC states "From limited information published from past Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks, infection among children was relatively uncommon."

Zero statement on this infection or that the information in the past gives them a reasonable sense of certainty moving forward. They even hedge the information with outlining it as limited information.

And - let me reiterate - the only aggregate COVID-19 data that we know of gives us a 3% infection rate vs a 20% population makeup. Explaining that difference with just the lack of testing is what's irresponsible.

Correct its irresponsible to try and state children have less or more or same susceptibility without more information.

Children could be immune more often, children may not be in places to even get sick, children could be getting sick but not exhibiting serious enough systems that would get them tested.

I am not stating for a fact that Children are getting sick as often. I am saying with limited testing its wreckless to assume that is the case with something as serious as this disease and how much everyone is trying to control spread.

If you find something concrete stating children get sick less often when confronted with COVID-19 in a similar situation as adults I will take a look and happy to change my mind. Until then I personally do not believe the data sample is complete. The only data sample I find to fully complete or of proper scope to cover age demographics is total deaths.

Lastly

there is no evidence of the bolded part

The CDC stated on their FAQ that most child cases appear to be mild:
"These limited reports suggest that children with confirmed COVID-19 have generally presented with mild symptoms, and though severe complications (acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock) have been reported, they appear to be uncommon. "

The CDC also stated mild cases in children out of china show:
"cold-like symptoms, such as fever, runny nose, and cough"

Thats why I outlined the idea that less severe cases would go untested, ignore, or told to just stay home and contact the doctor or come in to the hospital if symptoms worsen. I am not saying its a fact sorry if it came across as such.

Anyways if we can't agree at this point likely not going to.

 

[monkeydawn]

We're foodies. We have two weeks of food just based on having five different kinds of rice and four different kinds of dried beans.

Im a couponer so well stocked with non perishables, although a large component of my diet is fresh fruits and veggies. But Id be ok with the canned stuff if I had to be.

Two Fridays ago we went to Costco and picked up 24 gallons of water, that was the one thing I wanted to be certain to get before it was a problem. I usually fill my own jugs every week but in case a quarantine is imposed (or even just strongly suggested) I wanted to be prepared with water. Unfortunately our tap water is not safe to drink here.

 

[allashore]

The National Guard has been called in to enforce a mandatory two week quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. I don't live in NYC anymore, but if I did, I would certainly have enough supplies for a two week quarantine if I could afford to do so. That's just being sensible given the reality on the ground.

From what I read, it is not true quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. Only the schools within that 1mile radius are closed, some in that city some in neighboring town.
Stores are remaining open, and people can come & go

 

[Intr3pid]

There is no data tangibly showing that children when exposed to the virus will not catch it in comparison to those who older.

There is pretty hard, tangible data showing cases in children lagging far behind any older age group for COVID-19. (See the chart I posted.) To reiterate, most of Hubei has now been exposed to the virus - most adults and most children. Children will not get any more exposed than they already have been. Any deeper exposure is unrealistic and - honestly - meaningless.

Hence why the CDC states "From limited information published from past Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks, infection among children was relatively uncommon."

Zero statement on this infection or that the information in the past gives them a reasonable sense of certainty moving forward. They even hedge the information with outlining it as limited information.

If CDC felt this particular information to be out of context, they would simply not mention it. Invariably, they would put a disclaimer for a lack of controlled scientific study, but having to wait for one is irresponsible. Such controlled situation will never transpire in real life. SARS has come and gone. Conclusions have already been made - including those about children. The speculation that a lack of testing is artificially lowering these numbers would never be proven if it wasn't already proven during the SARS years.

I am not stating for a fact that Children are getting sick as often. I am saying with limited testing its wreckless to assume that is the case with something as serious as this disease and how much everyone is trying to control spread.

There is absolutely no evidence of "limited" testing. Once again, most of Hubei has now been exposed to the virus - most adults and most children. It would be naive to assume that mild cases were somehow "sent back home" when whole cities had been quarantined and 14 makeshift hospitals erected. On the contrary, as we have come to know, CDC in China has been monitoring ALL close contacts regardless of their age.

Thats why I outlined the idea that less severe cases would go untested, ignore, or told to just stay home and contact the doctor or come in to the hospital if symptoms worsen..

Yes, it's nothing more than a theory. There is no acknlowedgement of any sort from the CDC that children are not being tested, or being turned away due to mild symptoms. A case is a case is a case. Severity doesn't factor into its count.

To reiterate, a 3% vs 20% difference is hard data confirmed by CDC. It clearly shows a lower risk factor. If one wants to refute it, it's their responsibility to come up with equally hard opposite evidence. Not a theory, not a speculation - real evidence. All we have right now is a speculation of "limited" testing.

 

[aislinncruz01]

Cruise industry is going to be crushed with this outbreak.

Yeah, but it truly depends on where they primarily sail their ships

 

[mmouse37]

The National Guard has been called in to enforce a mandatory two week quarantine in New Rochelle, NY. I don't live in NYC anymore, but if I did, I would certainly have enough supplies for a two week quarantine if I could afford to do so. That's just being sensible given the reality on the ground.

This it not correct. As of now the National Guard is not there to enforce anything. They are being called in to CLEAN and deliver food. I watched the press conference today and they kept saying it is NOT a quarantine. They are trying to limit large gatherings and only closing schools, places of worship, etc. within a one mile radius. People can still come and go into the area.

This article explains it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlie...vince-in-coronavirus-crackdowns/#5d453fe946bc
When things are said like "the National Guard has been called in to enforce a quarantine" it gives a whole different meaning to the reality. It can scare people.

MJ