The need for carbs during running comes down to math to me

. Do I have enough carbs in storage in my muscles to run my pace for this distance? I don't have any medical need for nutrition per se, but need to have enough carbs on board and replenish my electrolytes.
Current body Weight (in kg) X Distance (in km) = Total kcals burned
In total, fat and carbs equal out the total kcals burned. The faster you run (relative to your fitness level) the more carbs you burn. I'll use my numbers as an example.
Weight = 72.7 kg
Distance = 42.195 km
kcals = 3068.7
Now my calculator makes two assumptions.
1. You have an average weight to leg muscle ratio. Outside of a leg muscle biopsy, it is near impossible to know where a person falls on the scale of leg muscle. The size of the leg muscle partially determines the capability of carb storage.
2. You have an average metabolic efficiency profile. Your use of carbs and fat the faster you run (relative to your fitness level) is average. Again, outside of a lab metabolic efficiency test, it is near impossible to tell whether someone is average or not. The faster you run the more carbs you use. Some people might be 60% carbs 40% fat at 65% VO2max and others at 80% VO2max (this is where the metabolic efficiency profile would be helpful).
*Chart from Rapoport's paper
If we
assume (and it is a leap), that a person is average for both of these parameters then we can make some calculations based on needs.
Leg Muscle Mass = 15.3
Carb storage = 1221.8 kcals
Current VO2max = 55 (Based on Garmin 235 which is highly dependent on an accurate HRmax of which I am not 100% confident in. If maxHR is off by 10 bpm, then Garmin VO2max can be off by as much as 10%. My 220-age=189, but based on my historical HR during races my maxHR is much more likely to be 170-180.)
My last marathon was at a pace of 7:40 min/mile and based on some other calculations that makes it 75% of my VO2max. Based on an average metabolic efficiency ratio I would need 2148 kcals carbs to run 42.195 km, at my weight, at 75% VO2max. This gives me a deficit of 926 kcals carbs. I can pull some from the liver and thus my final deficit is 826 kcals carbs (which equals 247.1 kcals carbs per hour which equals 61.8 g carbs per hour). This is where a traditional gel strategy would kick in. Ok I need 61.8 g carbs per hour to run a marathon at my weight and current fitness level at my goal pace. Keep in mind the limit for carb intake per hour is somewhere around 75-90 g (I've done 75g per hour successfully before).
On the above calculator you can see my %VO2max at 75 is equal to a 3:20:40 marathon time. It requires 2148 kcal carbs. If I did not do any carb pre-loading or carb intake during the race, I would hit the glycogen depletion wall at ~14.9 miles (assuming I entered the race with a normal 100% carb storage)
I personally use E-Gel as my carb and electrolyte source. It has 37g carbs per package from two different sources. The has been some research to show that two carb sourced nutrition is more readily available to be absorbed because of how each type of carb is processed by the body. More routes of absorption means more carbs can be taken in and more efficiently through the system. It also is the closest to meeting the American College of Sports Medicine recommended electrolyte replacement at 500mg Sodium and 200mg Potassium per liter (34oz) of consumed liquid.
For every 2 g of carbs, the body needs 1 oz of water to absorb it. Thus, I need to drink 18.5 oz of water between every E-Gel to ensure its proper absorption. A key thing to remember is this is water, and not gatorade or something similar. Gatorade is already an isotonic solution with a carb to liquid ratio around 2g:1oz. Which means there is no available water from gatorade to aid in absorbing the carbs from the E-Gel. If I take 1 E-Gel and 18.5 oz Gatorade, I will start to get GI issues (also known as the feeling of a brick in the stomach) because the body has no available water to digest the E-Gel (this isn't exclusive to E-gel as this is true across the board with carbs). Guess where the body pulls water from in emergency digesting needs... the muscles?!?! So if you don't hydrate appropriately you start to dehydrate your muscles in addition to making the bricks in your stomach and it leads to an inevitable crash. Important to note that in non-ideal weather situations, the 2g carb to 1 oz water ratio increases because of the loss of water in excessive sweating.
So for my last race I consumed 3oz of water per mile. I took one E-gel at the beginning, one at mile 5, one at mile 12, and one at mile 19. Do the math and that's 37+37+37+37=148 total carbs. But I needed 247 carbs to avoid the wall, so what else did I do???
Well I also do a pre-loading of carbs on the day prior. I'm also trying to get rid of using gels or carbs during racing. How can I do that?
It's a two-step process.
1. Teach the body to increase carb storage capacity.
2. Store more than 100% carb capacity immediately prior to race day.
Step 1 can be accomplished with something called Glycogen Depletion training.
WARNING! THIS CAN BE DANGEROUS AND SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED LIGHTLY! These glycogen depletion training runs occur at least 8-12 weeks prior to race day and can be no more than once every 3-4 weeks. You plan to do your normal long run in duration between 90-150 minutes. You eat no breakfast prior and you use no fuel during the run. Your body becomes starved for carbs during the run, but there is nothing available. You typically fade hard at the end of these runs and as others have described learn what it feels like to be at near 0. When you get home you consume a large load of carbs within 15 minutes of finishing. Preferably mostly in liquid form as it can digest more readily. Your body will quickly store as many carbs as it can. The body adapts to the training by saying to itself, hey this guy is crazy and needs more carbs. Let's store more carbs in his legs for the next time he tries to do this to us. Thus, this increases your ability to store above 100% of your physical carb storage capabilities based on the leg muscle mass calculations.
Step 2 is accomplished through a sophisticated pre-race day carb loading strategy. There are a few out there, but I prefer the Western Australian method. Over the past year, I have been training my body to be able to tolerate the carb loading procedure. According to research, it can allow you to maximally store as much as 190% carb capacity (although results varied in the study and I believe the variation in the results is due to Step 1). So if I could maximally train my body to store 190% carb capacity, then it means I could store 2321 kcals of carbs. Remember how much I needed to run my pace, my distance, my weight... 1902. So now I've created a surplus of carbs stored in the muscles in the day or days (research by others suggest that carb loading could be done as many as 5 days prior to the event) ahead and can run the distance without carbs being a limiting factor. In fact, if I were physically capable, then carb depletion wouldn't become an issue at my weight and VO2max until I tried to run a 2:44:49 (81% VO2max). Yea, there are plenty of other reasons why I can't currently run that pace and one of them is not carbs. Here's the Western Australia plan based on my weight (as you can see this is not your typical spaghetti dinner):
What's the drawback to this plan? There is no feedback prior to race day on how many carbs you've stored. I could calculate to the cows come home that I'll store 190%, but there's not really any way to know outside of a muscle biopsy the day prior whether I've done it successfully. So the plan takes a bit of leap of faith, but I know based on the science it works. The gels are easier from a standpoint that I can pre-calculate to eat this many gels at a certain rate with a certain water intake to determine I'll have sufficient carbs to finish. This however doesn't eliminate the need for electrolyte replacement (but if you drink some gatorade or electrolyte tabs on course, then you'll be fine). So at this point in my running career I commit overkill but doing some gels and a carb pre-loading prior to the event. As time progresses my goal is to get more and more comfortable with minimal on course nutrition and mostly doing pre-loading. But that's a lot of pressure (months of training) on some calculations to go right.
So something I realized when I went through this exercise is that I don't really need to do any carb replacement for any race other than a marathon or more. Unless I plan to run 85% VO2max or faster, then my calculator states that you won't hit glycogen depletion until after 13.1 miles.
The biggest question to me though is the accuracy of this calculation is highly dependent on the VO2max assessment being accurate. If that number is off, then so is your goal pace as a % VO2max, which means your "wall" estimation is off as well.
For the purposes of training, I only intake carbs on runs longer than 100 minutes in duration. My intent is to try and teach my body to become more efficient in using fat as a fuel source. If we could theoretically teach the body to use 100% fat as a fuel source we could run for VERY long distances with no threat of glycogen depletion. So this teaching of the body can be a very useful technique. On runs over 100 minutes I usually consume 1 E-gel when 100-120 minutes and 2 E-gels if 120-150 minutes in duration. These are not because I "have" to have the E-Gels for training at these distances for threat of glycogen depletion, but because getting too close to the "wall" to often increases the need for recovery between bouts of exercise. In addition, when you enter training runs your glycogen storage may not be 100% (whereas a tapered race is more likely you are).