I also have a 10K race in mid-August that I'd really like to PR. I wanted to also get a t-shirt, but that seems unlikely now. The t-shirt distribution is complicated and being able to earn one at this race is kind of a bragging thing since not everyone gets one. It's not like "top 3" bragging level, but it's still something.

The distribution is based on your place and the number of t-shirts available for your age group varies based on what % of the finishers in the previous year's race came from your age group. Last year, 15% of the finishers were in my brand new age group, 40-49, so 15% of the total t-shirts (43 of 312) are available to earn. I thought it might be possible before the t-shirt numbers were announced this year, but the change to the new age group hurts (because my old age group, women's 0-39, was the largest percentage of all finishers so they get a whopping 81 shirts), also the lower number of total finishers last year hurt. The total t-shirts available to everyone is also based on the # of finishers the previous year, and it was very humid and foggy and numbers were down. Based on last year's results and this year's shirt numbers, I would need to run 1:00:50 to earn a t-shirt in 40-49, and that's just not possible for me at this time.

My PR from January on a pancake flat course is 1:13:39. I think last year I had calculated that I would have needed to run like 1:07 or 1:08 to get a t-shirt in 0-39, but with the reduced total number of shirts, that would be 58:33 now!