The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[tidefan]

I like the name River Country Lodge 1000 times better than Reflections.

But the feature pool will have to have a great lazy river going around it !
.

To be clear, this, I believe, was what the CM’s were colloquially referring to it as, not that it was an official name…

But, I agree, it would be a much better name than Reflections…

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

As much as I’d love to have one, I think Disney has proven time and time again they aren’t interested in making the hotel pools attractions. They did it relatively well speaking once with Stormalong Bay, but overall it has always felt to me they wanted the pools to be just nice enough that people feel the box was checked, but not too nice that people don’t go to Disney Springs/the parks/The water Parks, etc.

Even Vero Beach, where you’d think a pool would be a huge hit, it is pretty underwhelming compared to other timeshare/resort properties and their pools. If I recall correctly, Aulani tried playing that game and they had to redo the pool.

I am at Aulani now. I don’t know what the original plan was, but it’s hard to imagine they could have redesigned the pools as an afterthought as they crammed an entire lazy river and two water slides between the massive towers. I am sad there’s no adult dedicated pool (and it appears even when they had one it didn’t have any ocean view at all).

I tend to agree with you that at WDW they want the pools nice enough to spend a half day and not complain about lack of amenities but not so nice you don’t need to actually visit their parks….but my kids were content to ride the one waterslide at VGF or PVB over and over and I was able to sit on a comfortable chair without walking to far for F&B service, so I actually think the pools are the only area (aside from location) where DVC resorts meet or exceed an average luxury property.

 

[Cfabar1]

Not sure what Aulani had before vs. now (I have never been there), but here is a news article from the time:

The major expansion project at Aulani, A Disney Resort & Spa is complete! Enjoy even more outstanding experiences – including an infinity pool, dynamic splash zone and new dining options – throughout this beautiful Hawaiian paradise.

Here is what is new at Aulani.

Pool Area
The Waikolohe Valley pool area offers more fun experiences and dining options than ever before, including:

• A themed family pool (Ka Maka Grotto), featuring an infinity edge, a misty grotto with beautiful sunset views and an after-dark experience with glittering lights
• A kids’ splash zone (Keiki Cove) that’s designed to resemble a tidal pool, with images of tidal pool creatures on the pool floor, rainbow water jets and hidden menehune – the legendary “little people” of the islands
• Additional deck space, chairs, chaises and cabanas surrounding the new water features
• A poolside dining venue (Ulu Cafe) serving breakfast, lunch and dinner – and featuring an outdoor patio with beautiful ocean view
• Wailana Pool – formerly the quiet pool – is now an adult-exclusive pool area

https://aulanihawaii.com/aulani-expansion-complete-time-for-a-swim/

 

[emchen]

Just to add to our speculation, on both of our last two DCL sailings (this year) they had River Country as a trivia answer. Wondering they have a long game of amping up nostalgia. I’m already ready for the “will they have a lazy river” speculation.

…And whether it will be the same association or not?

 

[mamaofsix]

As much as I’d love to have one, I think Disney has proven time and time again they aren’t interested in making the hotel pools attractions. They did it relatively well speaking once with Stormalong Bay, but overall it has always felt to me they wanted the pools to be just nice enough that people feel the box was checked, but not too nice that people don’t go to Disney Springs/the parks/The water Parks, etc.

Even Vero Beach, where you’d think a pool would be a huge hit, it is pretty underwhelming compared to other timeshare/resort properties and their pools. If I recall correctly, Aulani tried playing that game and they had to redo the pool.

The official site plans for Reflections did have a lazy river and extensive pool area, so hopefully they would keep that aspect if it was revived again.

 

[maui22]

I think we're entering a new era of DVC - where they're perfectly fine with NOT declaring more points to sell and leaving them as cash rentals. They don't care if it takes forever to sell out a Riviera as long as they can rent the points for cash on the backend while in active sales.

This also might explain why the theming is so much more muted now - more like a hotel room, and not at all what DVC is suppose to be (in terms of Disney theme.) The new Boardwalk refurb looks about as plain vanilla as they can go - and I don't think it's all for cost savings.

Agree on the muted theming.

A lot more cash rooms is good during strong travel economy. However during bad times like the Great Recession, all the rooms were a major problem.

If another recession hits and 4 of the active resorts are restricted, the boards are going to have a lot of posts about Disney decisions.

Not sure about others, but I come to the boards regularly because of excitement about new resorts being built. If slow sales mean a 5 year wait before a new resort after the tower, Disney loses a lot of hype/enthusiam.

 

[Mikey15]

Not sure about others, but I come to the boards regularly because of excitement about new resorts being built. If slow sales mean a 5 year wait before a new resort after the tower, Disney loses a lot of hype/enthusiam.

Points charts are a factor in how slowly or quickly the sales will go:
Copper Creek apparently took two years from opening to sell out (27mo of sales) for 3.3 million points, which was with a modest point chart fairly similar to BRV’s.
Riviera was an entirely new build with a massive point chart of 6.7 million points, so while it’s been open almost four years and on sale for even longer, they’ve managed to sell 3.9 million points in that timeframe.
And BPK added 1.7 million points to VGF, so while they managed to sell it all in under two years, it was a lot less to sell.

Overall, it looks like 2 million points per year is a “good year” of DVC sales, and the last two years have been good years. So yes, it’s going to take a while for the remaining 2.8 million Riv points to go. For the new ones coming online though, I believe the educated guesses for Poly tower (smaller than Riv) to be between 3 & 4 million. CFW points level is a bit of a wildcard, but I don’t see 360 cabins breaking 3 million combined points.

So at least on the WDW side you’re looking at ~9 million points between 3 resorts on sale. Mathematically, I think it means at least 4 years to sell them all out… but some could go more quickly than others. If CFW is “cheap” points-wise like some are predicting, it could mean more like 2 million points to sell there. I do think Poly chart will be high, but it is a small resort with fewer “keys” than Riv. But maybe demand will be high too. I mean, who doesn’t want to own at Poly?*

*Lottery win may be required.

 

[ehh]

CFW points level is a bit of a wildcard, but I don’t see 360 cabins breaking 3 million combined points.

Looking at other room categories, I think it's actually pretty likely they will break 3mil total points.

Here's 350x the number of points by other room types that might be in the range of a CFW Cabin per night/week:
Poly SV Studio - 21.7pts/night - 2.8mil points
AKV 1BR Value - 22.4pts/night - 2.9mil points
RIV PV Studio - 23.8pts/night - 3.05mil points
Poly LV Studio - 25.8pts/night - 3.3mil points
OKW 1BR - 28.2pts/night - 3.6mil points
SSR Std 1BR - 29.7pts/night - 3.8mil points
VGF TPV Resort Studio - 31.0pts/night - 4mil points
SSR Pref 1BR - 34.3pts/night - 4.4mil points
CCV 1BR - 35.4pts/night - 4.5mil points

I'm doubtful that CFW Cabin will be fewer points per night than any RIV Studio, and that alone would put CFW over 3mil.

Even the high watermark of studios, the VGF Theme Park View Resort Studio, seems near the floor for CFW Cabins (sleeps more, bigger, neighbors are far, own parking space, might have a better kitchen space or W/D, etc.), and 350 of those is just under 4mil points. I'm not saying it should be, but juicing the points chart a tiny bit means more sales in total, and we just saw DVC take VDH right up to the line that VGC set.

 

[KimMcGowan]

Looking at other room categories, I think it's actually pretty likely they will break 3mil total points.

Here's 350x the number of points by other room types that might be in the range of a CFW Cabin per night/week:
Poly SV Studio - 21.7pts/night - 2.8mil points
AKV 1BR Value - 22.4pts/night - 2.9mil points
RIV PV Studio - 23.8pts/night - 3.05mil points
Poly LV Studio - 25.8pts/night - 3.3mil points
OKW 1BR - 28.2pts/night - 3.6mil points
SSR Std 1BR - 29.7pts/night - 3.8mil points
VGF TPV Resort Studio - 31.0pts/night - 4mil points
SSR Pref 1BR - 34.3pts/night - 4.4mil points
CCV 1BR - 35.4pts/night - 4.5mil points

I'm doubtful that CFW Cabin will be fewer points per night than any RIV Studio, and that alone would put CFW over 3mil.

Even the high watermark of studios, the VGF Theme Park View Resort Studio, seems near the floor for CFW Cabins (sleeps more, bigger, neighbors are far, own parking space, might have a better kitchen space or W/D, etc.), and 350 of those is just under 4mil points. I'm not saying it should be, but juicing the points chart a tiny bit means more sales in total, and we just saw DVC take VDH right up to the line that VGC set.

I am not trying to just argue with you. I also realize I could very well be in the minority here. However, I can’t see CFW being anywhere near the mark you think. People think Riviera has been slow? I can see these cabins taking forever to sell - like Aulani forever. That could very well just be my own personal dislike of Fort Wilderness speaking though.

 

[mamaofsix]

I am not trying to just argue with you. I also realize I could very well be in the minority here. However, I can’t see CFW being anywhere near the mark you think. People think Riviera has been slow? I can see these cabins taking forever to sell - like Aulani forever. That could very well just be my own personal dislike of Fort Wilderness speaking though.

FW has a very loyal following and many people stay year after year. A lot of people love FW. I can see fixed weeks around Hallowe'en or Christmas being particularly popular. It's also going to be super appealing to locals.

My guess is that the points will be similar to OKW 1 Bedroom, as PP suggested.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I will say, all the speculation helped cure my addonitis. We are owners at BCV, and a couple of years ago we stayed at Poly. Before we purchased DVC, BCV and Poly were the two resorts we debated as being our home resorts. We ended up buying BCV because that is easily our favorite, but Poly was a close second. Anyway, after our stay at Poly I got a really bad case of addonitis. I REALLY wanted to own there. And then, literally just as I was about to succumb to my desire, DVC announced Poly2. The speculation began to run rampant (rightfully so). All the questions and lack of clarity was the perfect cure to my addonitis. I have been watching this thread since then and I am waiting for DVC to levy their verdict. I see both sides of the discussion regarding if Poly2 will be part of the original Poly. It will be interesting to see what DVC decides.

 

[jakecaputo]

It’s been six hours since it was announced that tower will be part of the existing association, how is this thread not blowing up?!

 

[Jack Kerouac]

It blew up. Well, with a whimper. And now we stand here. What do you suggest we do next?

 

[Sandisw]

I think those of us who thought new are still in shock. I don’t get it but obviously those at DVD have different goals than I thought they did.

 

[intamin]

I think those of us who thought new are still in shock. I don’t get it but obviously those at DVD have different goals than I thought they did.

Seems poorly planned.. kind of par for the course with DVC

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Isn't the natural next step speculating about opening pricing? We can also speculate about if/when ROFR will start for PVB existing sales.

I'll start! In my opinion, if they were trying to sell higher than RIV, it would have made more sense to start a new association (can you really sell new at $200 after incentives if gently used is readily available around $150? It didn't work with VGF!) so I think we will see a sticker price in the 200s, but with incentives that bring it down lower than the best rate offered at VDH. I don't think we will see the $170s (before or after MB) anytime soon unless the economy craters... so if I had to guess, maybe $185 after a discount for Magical Beginnings?

As for ROFR, if prices naturally nudge up to the $150s, I could see Disney being tempted to support it around that level so that the gap between new and gently used pushes people towards the direct points.

 

[Cyberc1978]

We can also speculate about if/when ROFR will start for PVB existing sales.

Why should they start ROFR for PVB? IF associations are the same(I'd like to see it in writing first) then they have 1 trillion points to sell and until they are sold it would not make sense to ROFR points. That's at least how it's been in the past.

I'll start! In my opinion, if they were trying to sell higher than RIV, it would have made more sense to start a new association (can you really sell new at $200 after incentives if gently used is readily available around $150? It didn't work with VGF!) so I think we will see a sticker price in the 200s, but with incentives that bring it down lower than the best rate offered at VDH. I don't think we will see the $170s (before or after MB) anytime soon unless the economy craters... so if I had to guess, maybe $185 after a discount for Magical Beginnings?

As for ROFR, if prices naturally nudge up to the $150s, I could see Disney being tempted to support it around that level so that the gap between new and gently used pushes people towards the direct points.

$200 is not gonna be high enough. DVD normally raises their pricing beginning of the new year, and unless that will change $200 is too low. I think we will be looking at $230-$240 before incentives

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

$200 is not gonna be high enough. DVD normally raises their pricing beginning of the new year, and unless that will change $200 is too low. I think we will be looking at $230-$240 before incentives

I can see them asking for $230 or higher as an official price, but I think the best incentives for large point contracts, stacked with MB, will bring it below $190.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I can see them asking for $230 or higher as an official price, but I think the best incentives for large point contracts, stacked with MB, will bring it below $190.

That could very well be, but I dont expect that MB will be an option for all 2024 points. Depending on the opening date all the UY's before that date might not get any points until 2025. Then you could of course use MB for 2025 points but then again you wouldn't have any points to use until 2026.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

That could very well be, but I dont expect that MB will be an option for all 2024 points. Depending on the opening date all the UY's before that date might not get any points until 2025. Then you could of course use MB for 2025 points but then again you wouldn't have any points to use until 2026.

It makes sense for Disney because when the tower first opens cash bookings will be hot, so you can imagine why they might be happy to buyback the first UY, especially if it gives them juicy sales numbers.