Talk with my Guide and Random Notes

[lat]

Talked to my guide today.

- SSR will be almost twice as large as OKW when completed (not news to some people)

- I think it took YEARS for OKW to be sold out, SSR seems to be selling at record time since it is already in phase 2 out of 3 phases.

- I believe BWV, BCV and WLV points will be more and more in demand because the 11 month window will become more and more important as SSR is being sold.

- He thinks it is likely DVC will raise the price again, probably another $5 later this year.

- Contemporary rumor - he said it is possible but it is a rumor that has been around for years. For DVC to do anything, they will want it to be a bigger project, unlike VWL, sold out within a year or so (in his words).

 

[Luckymommyx2]

I'm curious, did your guide happen to say how much of phase II is sold so far? Maybe someone knows the most recent figures. Thanks for the post.

 

[PamOKW]

OKW opened in October 1991 ($51 per point). It first sold-out in 1998. The model/sales office area was made into the 3 additional buildings which sold-out again in October 1999.

DVC was an unknown concept at the start. The first two years there were 9,000 members.

 

[KANSAS]

PAM OKW

HOW many dvc members now??

 

[tjkraz]

Last official report was in the neighborhood of 82,000.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by KANSAS
PAM OKW

HOW many dvc members now??

[pinky to mouth] One MEELION Members!

Actually, I think it's around 80,000 or so....

 

[Beca]

I heard 83,000...and yes, I KNOW I am not PamOKW...I just have a really hard time keeping my mouth shut!!!



Beca

 

[KANSAS]

83,000 dvc members and growing rapidly with SSRS.

this supports theory that BCV points and their 11 month window, will grown in value!!

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by KANSAS
this supports theory that BCV points and their 11 month window, will grown in value!!

Demand for the POINTS is likely to continue...and that will determine their value more than anything else.

But, as an owner at another resort, I'm not concerned with the ability to book BCV at 7 months. The total ownership (points) at BCV CANNOT ever change. So, one can logically conclude that the availability at 7 months + 1 day will be the same whether there are 80,000 DVC members or 180,000. Those who are prepared to book a non-Home resort right at 7 months will rarely be disappointed, IMO.

 

[PamOKW]

At the SSR opening they said "more than 80,000 members". I saw something within the last week that quoted 85,000 members. In any case, it's a lot more than 9,000

 

[Tagrel]

Originally posted by tjkraz
But, as an owner at another resort, I'm not concerned with the ability to book BCV at 7 months. The total ownership (points) at BCV CANNOT ever change. So, one can logically conclude that the availability at 7 months + 1 day will be the same whether there are 80,000 DVC members or 180,000. Those who are prepared to book a non-Home resort right at 7 months will rarely be disappointed, IMO.

Can't say I agree with your logic. As the number of DVC members grows, so will the number of members that are educated enough to know the importance of calling right at 7months to book a resort at which they do not own.

First - Owners at the resort will realize they HAVE to make reservations before 7 months, or they are out of luck.

Second - If there are suddenly 500 people calling for reservations at 7 months, when there used to be 50 - your chances of success are greatly reduced.

I'd compare it to PS reservations at both Princess Breakfast's. First CRT was (and remains) very difficult to book. So Disney added the Princess Storybook Breakfast. After two years, it is now as difficult to book as CRT. As more and more people 'know the rules', it becomes more difficult to reserve - even at that first possible moment!

All this makes me very happy to own at our two favorite resorts - (and the smallest!) BCV and WLV. Great trading value and no worries about whether or not we'll get to stay there when we want to. I'm very glad I bought where I want to stay most!

As always, just my opinion - your mileage may vary!

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by Tagrel
Can't say I agree with your logic. As the number of DVC members grows, so will the number of members that are educated enough to know the importance of calling right at 7months to book a resort at which they do not own.

Can't say I agree with yours. I see no correlation between the number of members and how well they understand the DVC system - and know how to work it to their best advantage. I might agree that the number of "educated" owners will grow proportionally to the total number of members. But even then, with the true mass-marketing of SSR - along with the ease.of.booking promises that we're hearing about - I'd suspect that a new SSR owner will be a lot less sophisticated about the ins.and.outs of the DVC system than someone who's been an owner for years, uses CaskBill's DVC Planner and books a day at a time....

And while this might be mitigated over time, who knows what's going to happen to BCV/WLV popularity when CRV opens !

IMHO - YMMV

 

[puffkin]

It may just be me, but after reading these boards for months, it dismays me at how snobby some people are about VWL, BWV and BCV and how terrible SSR is for them because it will mean even less ability for those resorts after the 7 month mark.

Yes, I agree those locations are at desirable locations NOW, but who knows what will happen in 5, 10 or even fifteen years. What if Disney builds a new DVC resort right at the MK, or builds a new park right near OKW or SSR. I know this is unlikely, but you don't know what will happen in the future.

Did it ever occur to some that perhaps a lot of people with VWL, BCV and BWV would like to stay at SSR or any new resorts in the future, thus spreading out demand. Timeshares in general are set up to encourage advanced planning of vacations, and most people know that before they purchase any timeshare, not just DVC.

IMHO, I think what is making DVC so attractive is the variety of resort and accomodation options, which will continue to grow, not to mention the exchanges. I think some people need to get off their high horses and realize that the growth of DVC is only going to be beneficial. I bought SSR because I thought it was a beautiful resort and I liked the longer contract. I can't wait to try all the DVC resorts though. However, I am tired of feeling like a second class citizen though on these boards because I don't own at one of the big 3.

Sorry, I will get off my soap box now. I just have been bothered by this for a long time. I just don't think that the whole 7 month issue will be as bad as some people think it will be.

 

[crisi]

Trading may become more important....i.e. I'll book BW 11 months out for you if you book BC for me. And if trading become important, the perceived value of the difficultly of the trade will be a factor in making the deal.

i.e. I'll trade my BWV points for VWL points - and call to get someone a standard view or BW view room. But I won't do it for SSR points because SSR is probably going to always be fairly easy to book at 7 months - simply a matter of supply and demand - SSR has a lot of supply.

 

[laceemouse]

I agree with puffkin, we own at BCV and made one trip there in March (it was super!) We are going to do a quicky to OKW in October (can't wait!) BUT....we hope to try all of the resorts in time, including SSR. We haven't decided when our next trip will be, but I guess we will book at our home at 11 months and then maybe try to change it at 7 months. We are also considering an add-on but can't decide where. I think each resort has its pros and cons, but I like to try things myself and not just listen to what others say.....JMHO....Lacee

 

[Tagrel]

I intended NOTHING snobby in my response. I stated I was happy to have purchased where we wish to stay the most. We love trying other DVC resorts (and stayed at BWV this year and loved it!) And hope to try OKW and SSR in the future.

I'm sorry if the logic of the situation makes some feel uncomfortable, but to me its obvious. As overall membership grows, a percentage of the members will wish to stay somewhere OTHER than their 'owned' resort(s). While the percentage of owners 'trading out' from all resorts should typically be similar, the NUMBER of owners trading out from smaller resorts will almost certainly be less than the those trading out from larger resorts. So it will prove easier to get reservations at a larger resort at 7 months than at the smaller ones. This has nothing to do with 'which resort is better than the other' and everything to do with the number of total units.

Sorry for any perceived attacks on ANY DVC resort.

 

[crisi]

Dr. Tomorrow,

It takes an uneducated member one unsuccessful call at five months to become educated.

SSR member Joe has been informed by his guide that booking other resorts at seven months is easy. From reports on this board, unless you are going at peak times, it usually is. So he wants BCV next summer. And he doesn't call at seven months. He calls at five months. And is told "no dice." "What!", he says to the MS rep, "I was told this would work."

"Well, she says, next year you'll want to call right at seven months, BCV is a very popular resort and books up fast, some people even call us day by day at seven months to make sure they get in."

Next year Joe calls right at seven months. So do Jane and Sam and Fred, who all had similar conversations with member services last year.

It will take some time, but all but the densest members will catch on that if you want to be assured of something other than your home, you need to call at seven months.

Once the competition at the seven month mark goes up, people will start looking for ways to gain an advantage. Trading points will move the non-home booking window forward. Of course, those will be the educated members who find us - or other communities of DVC members willing to trade. If enough people find those communities (and google is your friend), the small resorts could get very tough at seven months.

 

[puffkin]

I intended NOTHING snobby in my response

Just to clarify my opinion, I wasn't saying anyone on this thread, just a general feel here on the boards. Your point is well taken, only time will tell what happens.

 

[Tagrel]

crisi -

- exactly. And I think more people will also find these boards BEFORE making the purchase as well as soon after.

puffkin - Good! I'd hate to be labelled a Resort Snob - I happen to believe all the DVC resorts have something great to offer!

 

[PamOKW]

If you are looking for instant gratification, calling right at the 11 month mark or the 7 month mark is the best way to accomplish that. If you have some patience, many times things work out.

At 7 months and 1 day possibly every resort is booked for New Year's Eve. If you get on the waitlist, chances are that during that 7 month period people's plans will change and you will get the accomodations you want. Making use of the waitlist can be just as important as using home resort advantage.