Talk with my Guide and Random Notes

[crisi]

Although, Pam, as the waitlist gets longer, the chances of people further down on the list getting their rooms goes down.

People will always cancel vacations. But more people will not cancel vacations just because the waitlist has gotten longer.

 

[Beca]

Wow, Puffkin!!

I am sorry you feel "second class" on this board! I hate to think ANYONE feels that way!! And, I am probably someone who has given you that feeling in the past...and, if so...I am VERY sorry!!!

Please understand that it is NOT a snobbiness of "the big 3" compared to SSR, it really is more of a concern about the regular availability of our home resorts. I have to agree entirely with Tagrel (his/her post sounds EXACTLY like some I have written in the past)...I am NOT concerned that "SSR people are going to come book at MY BWV)...everyone books there anyway (LOL)!!, it is more of a concern (for me, anyway) that DVC will actually build ONE resort with just over 100 rooms, and another with 850...and then say to the one with 850...you should have no problem getting into "100 rm resort"! That's just TOO many people to make promises to, and actually have all of them filled on a regular basis....I don't care where the resorts are, or what they are called...I see some unhappy people up ahead!

The size of SSR DID start a conversation with DH and myself. We would like to visit VWL once every 3 yrs around Christmas time. This year, we were able to get in...I cannot say, that without owndership at that resort, that I will be able to get in even 3 years from now. So, I have put my name on the waitlist. I would NOT have done so, if VWL had 800 rooms, instead of 128. Whether my fears are founded, or skewed...the presence of SSR has prompted me to buy VWL. If that means that I am being snobby...I am really sorry!! I don't mean to be (as I am sure others do not as well), but I purchased into DVC with certain expectations, and also certain information (such as SSR will be no bigger than OKW), and when DVC altered this information, it kind of made me regret my decision (buying that the 300 rm resort, instead of the 130 rm resort)...I think that is what people are complaining about. But, also...I heard that when BWV opened, people were complaining MASSIVELY about it!!! So, maybe that's just the way DVC'ers are!!

I know this may be a touchy subject, but I DO think resale values on BCV, VWL, and even BWV will stay high for a LONG time, despite their shorter contracts, because of location, and smaller size. There are NOT that many contracts available, and in a capitalist economy...well...that's just the way it goes. I think there are far more OKW on the market when compared to the others, not because OKW isn't a beautiful resort...but, because when there are 500+ rooms, if the same percentage of people are selling OKW as selling VWL...you should see 5X the listings...and you pretty much do!

Anyway...SSR looks to be beautiful, and we will check it out when we go home this December. I hope EVERY SSR owner loves their DVC membership as much as I love mine!!



Beca

 

[Pluto4Pres]

One thing to remember is that for every new member added there is a corresponding increase in DVC room inventory. OK, maybe you will have to work hard or be really lucky to get a particular resort at the 7mo window, but there will be a room for you at WDW. So what if you end up at OKW or SSR its still a great room for a fantastic WDW vacation.

If you're intention is to buy SSR or a cheaper OKW resale with intent to stay at BCV - don't do it.

If you love to vacation in WDW - Welcome Home!

 

[pjpoohbear]

Originally posted by DrTomorrow
I'd suspect that a new SSR owner will be a lot less sophisticated about the ins.and.outs of the DVC system than someone who's been an owner for years, uses CaskBill's DVC Planner and books a day at a time....

IMHO - YMMV

I have been using all the above programs since well before I signed my contract for SSR this past January . Use them to plan out the size of contract I wanted and might need to have in the future. Thanks to the developers of these programs. I knew about 11/7 month windows and the trading opportunities open to DVC members. Our guide was very impressed with my knowledge and said that the newer members know more and more about DVC before they buy.

I would say that all owners began at generally the same level of knowledge of the inner workings of DVC as the newer members are at today. I think that the newer owners will be very wise about the ways of DVC.

Penny

 

[Scratch42]

Originally posted by pjpoohbear
I have been using all the above programs since well before I signed my contract for SSR this past January . Use them to plan out the size of contract I wanted and might need to have in the future. Thanks to the developers of these programs. I knew about 11/7 month windows and the trading opportunities open to DVC members. Our guide was very impressed with my knowledge and said that the newer members know more and more about DVC before they buy.

I would say that all owners began at generally the same level of knowledge of the inner workings of DVC as the newer members are at today. I think that the newer owners will be very wise about the ways of DVC.

Penny

Well Said! And I'll second that!

Scratch

 

[chainkid]

I'm sorry you feel that alot of our observations about the soon to be lack of availability at the smaller resorts at the seven month window is a slam at SSR. I think one of the main themes of this board is to buy where you want to stay because who knows what the future holds. Some don't care which resort they stay at as long as they are at WDW. They won't have too much trouble finding a room at 7 months at OKW or SSR but in my opinion it will only get harder at the smaller resorts for all of us.. . I own at BWV and for the most part it is very important to me to stay here and not somewhere else . I always book at the 11 month window with my BWV points but this year because I'm bringing a large group, I had to wait until the 7 month window to use my Hilton ?Head points there. Alas no availability and the wait list has not come through either. I did get a room at OKW and was told SSR was available. So it is already hard for certain times of the year.

What really bothers alot of us is when people buy SSR because they want into the DVC and not because they love that resort .... the Disney people tell them it doesn't matter where you own you can stay at the other resorts all the time. Some people here bought at one resort and wish they had bought somewhere else after having tried them all. Its obvious from reading these boards each resort appeals to different people. SSR is not my cup of tea and boardwalk is not for others. No slam intended.

 

[Patty3]

I totally agree with Tagrel and his position. I think that all of the DVC resorts are beautiful and each have its own appeal. I originally bought at BWV because I knew that is where I wanted to stay. I have always loved YC/BC, so when that opened I bought there as well, because I wanted to stay there also. Again, I do not think that this is being snobby on my part, I just have my favorites as we all do. I am a big planner, and want to be able to make my ressie at the 11 month mark, I like having this advantage.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by pjpoohbear
I think that the newer owners will be very wise about the ways of DVC.

Ah, yes...as opposed to those poor ignorant fools who bought-in years ago and just didn't "get it."

I'm well aware that the Politically Correct thing to do around here is to incite fear, uncertainty and doubt regarding the ability to book at non-Home resorts.

But I'm also going to point out that the DVC members who frequent these boards are just the tiniest fraction of EIGHTY-FIVE THOUSAND people who own DVC points.

People said that this would happen when SSR opened. SSR is about 1/4 sold out already. If my math is correct, there are as many SSR points in the system as there are BCV points. And you know what? The sky hasn't fallen yet. I booked at BCV studio two weeks ago for DECEMBER. A few months ago I was offered a BOARDWALK VIEW room just 3 months before check-in.

Will it get more difficult to book SOME resorts during SOME times of the year when calling at SOME point in time after the 7 month window opens? Sure. But I'm not going to buy into the line of thinking that says phone calls at exactly 7 months will increase tenfold and waitlists will be dozens of names deep.

The first time that I try to book a non-Home resort at 7 months and get shut out, I'll be on these boards as soon as I hang up the phone. Until then, I'm just going to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

 

[d-r]

Originally posted by tjkraz
Demand for the POINTS is likely to continue...and that will determine their value more than anything else.

But, as an owner at another resort, I'm not concerned with the ability to book BCV at 7 months. The total ownership (points) at BCV CANNOT ever change. So, one can logically conclude that the availability at 7 months + 1 day will be the same whether there are 80,000 DVC members or 180,000. Those who are prepared to book a non-Home resort right at 7 months will rarely be disappointed, IMO.

I wouldn't mind if they changed the 11/7 month window to 11/6 or 11/5 or even 11/4.

 

[Tagrel]

tjkraz - I'm guessing this is a pretty sore subject for you!

Discussing future trends as the DVC member population increases is NOT meant to 'incite fear, uncertainty and doubt'. Its meant to discuss personal opinions about how MORE members trying to reserve the SAME number of available rooms could make it tougher to make reservations at the 7 month window.

Nobody said this was a terrible problem today, just that it has the potential to become more difficult in the future as membership increases. As SSR is only at 25%, there remains a great number of members still to come. As DVC adds more resorts (I'm thinking this is fairly likely) the situation would continue to escalate. I'm also thinking that a lot of new members might tend to stay where they bought on their first trip - at least I know we did our first 2 years... Of course, there are always exceptions...

When and if making reservations at 7 months really DOES become a problem more often than not, I'm sure we'll hear about it from many members. Hopefully, that day will be far in the future, or not at all. But I tend to like to think through the different scenarios, and be prepared all the same. for me, NOT thinking through different situations and possibilities is what can cause fear, uncertainty and doubt.

 

[crisi]

and tkjraz, you've owned for how long? Is it possible you are getting lucky? Is it possible that things will change in the future?

chainkid just posted that even the waitlist didn't work for him seven months out - this can be an issue right now, and can't get better at the small resorts as members get added (at least not under the current system).

 

[mydogdrew]

I tend to agree that it will get more difficult to book EPCOT resorts at 7 months when SSR is sold out.

However, I received lots of banked points with a contract that I just bought at BWV and had to make a lot of last minute reservation calls to book rentals as we were not going to make it down this summer. My observations were that 30-60 days out all that was available was OKW and SSR for August. Right at 30 days things changed - there were a number of opportunities available (including a BW view studio that I booked) due to cancellations from multiple ressies. So if you are patient, things do become available.

That being said, it stands to reason that there will be a lot more activity at 7 months in the future than today.

I guess my thoughts are that all these SSR buyers are really not receiving the 11 month advantage that owners at BCV/BWV and VWL receive. I think you will almost always be able to get into SSR at 7 months and I don't see the 3 BR points as a great value (like at OKW). Do SSR buyers really understand that they will not be able to take avantage of std view rooms at BWV? There is competition for these rooms from 7-11 months and very few available at 7 months.

 

[TheRustyScupper]

1) There are details people forget.
2) As the resorts get to capacity, the points don't increase.
3) This means that everyone MUST reserve a room.
4) There just won't be anywhere else for people to go.
5) It is a little like Jim Bakker.
6) If you want a room, you need above the 7-month window.
7) There are only so many points to issue per year per resort.

Example: (not actual numbers)
Resort "A" has 12,000 points for a year's worth of a room.
There are 12,000 points sold to members.
If you don't reserve, you run of of time & capacity.
If you bank, it can actually get worse.
Now there is over-capacity for the next year.



THUS, if DVC wants to keep the ability to have people use other resorts (instead of limiting use to ONLY your resort, which they CAN do), they MUST continue to build new rooms. If not, there will be people unable to use points in a given year. Sure, some will go to II resorts or cruises, but not enough. There would be a high probability (almost a certainty) that people who didn't book early enough will not be able to find an opening to use their points.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by crisi
Dr. Tomorrow,

It takes an uneducated member one unsuccessful call at five months to become educated.

[...] "Well, she says, next year you'll want to call right at seven months, BCV is a very popular resort and books up fast, some people even call us day by day at seven months to make sure they get in."

Next year Joe calls right at seven months. So do Jane and Sam and Fred, who all had similar conversations with member services last year.

[...]

Yes, it's agree to disagree time. In the whole 11 months since I've been a member (it seems that's an issue now ), I've never heard of this level of Helpful Education (tm) from MS - usually it's "MS told me the wrong thing again." It's also key to remember that many DVC owners , either due to circumstances or their own inability to plan, are not able to take advantage of the 7 month window. And finally, once again the caution "don't assume that all 80,000+ members are anywhere near as informed, educated, organized or obsessive as DIS DVCers are" needs to be made. Let's not forget those recent posts about owners who have let their points expire, unused, year after year. I'm usually an optimist who believes in the great potential that all people have; but in this case you just won't convince me that the same people who call up Tech Support asking where the "Any" key is - or those people who check into SSR, get a map, and still can't find where something is - are going to be able to work the system as proficiently as we, the DIS DVC Elite, can.

I agree with Tagrel that these things DO need to be considered, discussed and taken into account. While I can't say I think that his scenario is a given, right now, all things remaining equal, I'd say that it's got a better than 50% chance of happening. But that "remaining equal" part is the tricky one. I still don't think that any of us can see 5, 10 or 20 years into the future. Epcot's been kinda sucky lately; doesn't anyone think that, in ten years, it might get boring? Or that, as DVC owners - and their families - age into 40-somethings with teens, then into empty-nesters, SSR / DTD might become more popular?

I love that these debates take place - as an anal-retentive Software Engineer, I can never get enough "what if?" - and right now those who believe that there will be a future "run" on smaller resort bookings seem to have a sound idea. However, with DVC contracts lasting 38 more years (or 50 ), this reminds me of the folks who, when deciding whether or not to buy in to DVC, say "Well, I've always gotten a great discount on an on-site room" and assume that such discounts will always be available. One thing's for sure - the next five or ten years will be an interesting time at WDW and the DVC.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by crisi
and tkjraz, you've owned for how long? Is it possible you are getting lucky? Is it possible that things will change in the future?

"Will it get more difficult to book SOME resorts during SOME times of the year when calling at SOME point in time after the 7 month window opens? Sure. But I'm not going to buy into the line of thinking that says phone calls at exactly 7 months will increase tenfold and waitlists will be dozens of names deep. "

chainkid just posted that even the waitlist didn't work for him seven months out - this can be an issue right now, and can't get better at the small resorts as members get added (at least not under the current system).

And was that seven months to the day? I read "7-month window." How are you waitlisted, chainkid? Day-by-day or for the entire trip? How long is the trip? What size / class room?

Let's be very clear here. Going back to my initial post, I said "Those who are prepared to book a non-Home resort right at 7 months will rarely be disappointed, IMO." I wasn't talking about 6 months and 28 days--I was talking about SEVEN MONTHS.

I wholeheartedly agree that rooms will fill up quicker at the smaller resorts as an aggregate. If BCV fills its last opening at 4 months today, perhaps that last room is taken at 5 months a few years from now. I'm not saying that I'll be offered a Boardwalk View room at 3 months when SSR is sold out. Certainly that was a fluke.

However, I firmly believe that there will NEVER be a day when resorts CONSISTENTLY fill up immediately when that 7 month window opens, such that even reasonable waitlist requests are not granted. Holiday periods? Possibly. 365 days per year? No way.

 

[Granny]

Originally posted by crisi
(snip)It takes an uneducated member one unsuccessful call at five months to become educated.(snip)

I was really hoping that it would take about 37 of those annual unsuccessful calls for the newbies to catch on!

Since I am a fairly conservative person (not a gambler, that is), I am happy to have the booking advantage at my home resorts. It is my little security blanket, for which I pay higher dues than the lowest cost resorts.

So if I'm paying that upcharge to enable me to book earlier where I want to stay the most, for me it's worth it for the peace of mind.

Even if it turns out I could have made the same bookings at the 7 month window for the next 37 years!

Others may not care as much about where they stay as long as it's WDW, or they may be more of a gambler than I am. That's cool too. But I still think the "buy where you want to stay the most" advice is sound for most people asking advice here.

 

[Tagrel]

Y'know Granny, I think you hit on it exactly - at least for me. It IS worth something not to have to worry about getting just what you want. We will always be happy with a stay at either WLV or BCV and know that we can always get the unit type we want at 11 months out.

I'm currently going to MouseFest in December, and booked my BCV studio around 10 months. No problem. And there may still be rooms available, I just know I don't have to worry about it, and I'm where I want to be. I know SO many others that are waiting and waiting for AP rates - (and/or ANY discounts), and its driving them nuts! I am just now learning what a great 'perk' not worrying can be.

Now, if we ever want to book a 3 bedroom villa I'm in trouble, but ya gotta take the good with the bad! Of course, if that just means the inlaws have to stay in a DIFFERENT unit, I guess I'll suffer through!

 

[Deep-Thots]

Originally posted by chainkid


What really bothers alot of us is when people buy SSR because they want into the DVC and not because they love that resort .... the Disney people tell them it doesn't matter where you own you can stay at the other resorts all the time.

How can you be bothered by the fact that people buy into SSR because they "want into the DVC" and not because they love SSR? chainkid, you yourself just stated that that is what people are being told by Disney. Why should they have any reason to think otherwise -- at least initially? After all, at sales presentations, SSR is presented as the only resort currently available for sale. The people being "pitched to" are never told that they can attempt to buy into the other resorts -- even through DVC!

All this means is that the owners at the smaller resorts will have to be vigilant between the 7 and 11 month window. After that, every DVC owner is on the same playing field. If this fact potentially "ruins" the plans of the owners at smaller resorts, well, so be it. Those are the rules, and we have to live within them.

 

[Deep-Thots]

Originally posted by crisi
and tkjraz, you've owned for how long? Is it possible you are getting lucky? Is it possible that things will change in the future?

chainkid just posted that even the waitlist didn't work for him seven months out - this can be an issue right now, and can't get better at the small resorts as members get added (at least not under the current system).

This is a bit disingenuous, I think. chainkid was trying to get a BW Grand Villa. We all know that there aren't many of them, and that they tend to be reserved very quickly. I wonder whether he would be able to get a 2BR and a 1BR -- sort of near each other -- at BWV?

 

[jarestel]

Originally posted by Deep-Thots
All this means is that the owners at the smaller resorts will have to be vigilant between the 7 and 11 month window. After that, every DVC owner is on the same playing field. If this fact potentially "ruins" the plans of the owners at smaller resorts, well, so be it. Those are the rules, and we have to live within them.

And hopefully the plans of the owners at the larger resorts aren't ruined either if there's no availability at the smaller resorts. But as you said, rules ARE rules and I'm perfectly happy with the 11 month reservation windows at my home resort.