Swine Flu News

[momx2]

MSN is reporting that globally there have been 625 deaths from swine flu just week. That is scary folks...I feel like it is a ticking time bomb in the schools.

 

[Pennykay]

"The other option is that H1N1 is over counted in some areas because actual cases of allergies, colds, bronchitis, 'stomach flu', strep, etc are mistakenly called 'swine flu'."

If that were the case how do you explain why there are hundreds of kids out of school sick this year as compared to every other year? I think that it is more likely that doctors are misdiagnosing. People are going to the doctor and being told it's not swine flu because they have no fever even though over 30% of cases do not present with fever. People are being told that they just have the "regular flu" even though the CDC says that over 99% of flu cases are swine flu. People are being told that they don't have swine flu after a rapid test even though the rapid test has up to a 70% false negative rate. It is obvious that there are doctors out there that are misinformed.

 

[Pennykay]

Swine flu spreading at 'unbelievable' rate: WHO
(AFP) – 6 days ago

PARIS — Swine flu spreads four times faster than other viruses and 40 percent of the fatalities are young adults in good health, the world's top health official warned in an interview appearing Saturday.

"This virus travels at an unbelievable, almost unheard of speed," World Health Organisation Director General Margaret Chan told France's Le Monde daily in an interview.

"In six weeks it travels the same distance that other viruses take six months to cover," Chan said.

"Sixty percent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health -- who die of a viral fever in five to seven days.
"This is the most worrying fact," she said, adding that "up to 30 percent of people in densely populated countries risked getting infected."

Chan's warning came a day after the WHO said the virus had overtaken others to become the most prevalent flu strain.

"Evidence from multiple outbreak sites demonstrates that the A(H1N1) pandemic virus has rapidly established itself and is now the dominant influenza strain in most parts of the world," the UN agency said in a statement.

"The pandemic will persist in the coming months as the virus continues to move through susceptible populations," it added.

Chan underlined that emergency and healthcare services in several countries had come under strain and stressed that resources allocated for cancer patients and those suffering from heart disease should not be diverted.

"One must not rob Peter to pay Paul," she said. "All governments must prepare for the worst."

She said the most important thing in the battle against the virus was "political leadership."

More than 2,180 people around the world have died from the virus since it emerged in April, according to the latest WHO figures.

Chan also said that it could be months before sufficient vaccine is available to combat the pandemic.

She put world production capacity at 900 million doses a year, for a global population of 6.8 billion people.

Even if this was an unprecedented effort, and authorities were speeding up procedures for getting vaccines to the market, there should be no question of compromises on their safety and effectiveness, Chan said.

Britain and France received their first batches of swine flu vaccine this week. Australia on Friday said a massive swine flu vaccination programme would start in October and Turkey hopes the first supplies of the vaccine will come by that time.

While 90 percent of severe and fatal cases occur in people aged above 65 in seasonal flu, most of those who die from swine flu are under the age of 50.

A "very severe form of disease" affecting the lungs and causing severe respiratory failure among young and healthy people was being reported, WHO said Friday, adding that highly specialised care was required.

Large numbers of such patients could therefore "overwhelm" intensive care units and disrupt the provision of care for other diseases, it warned.

In the southern hemisphere where the flu-prone winter season is tailing off, the WHO said cities in several countries had reported that nearly 15 percent of hospitalised cases required intensive care.

 

[sbell111]

... "Sixty percent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health -- who die of a viral fever in five to seven days.

That story was posted last week, but thanks for bringing it back. It think that it's important because it highlights how we all need to be careful to not believe too much of these news reports.

As you can see, the bit that you bolded doesn't logically follow from the part just before.

 

[sbell111]

"The other option is that H1N1 is over counted in some areas because actual cases of allergies, colds, bronchitis, 'stomach flu', strep, etc are mistakenly called 'swine flu'."

If that were the case how do you explain why there are hundreds of kids out of school sick this year as compared to every other year? I think that it is more likely that doctors are misdiagnosing. People are going to the doctor and being told it's not swine flu because they have no fever even though over 30% of cases do not present with fever. People are being told that they just have the "regular flu" even though the CDC says that over 99% of flu cases are swine flu. People are being told that they don't have swine flu after a rapid test even though the rapid test has up to a 70% false negative rate. It is obvious that there are doctors out there that are misinformed.

Or that people in here are misinformed. There is an incredible amount of bad information running around. Frequently, this junk lands in threads like this one where it swirls around and around, taken and repeated as gospel.

Simply put, the average doctor is more qualified to make diagnoses than the average forum denizen.

 

[Pennykay]

Say what you will, but many doctors are misinformed about Swine flu.

 

[Pennykay]

That story was posted last week, but thanks for bringing it back. It think that it's important because it highlights how we all need to be careful to not believe too much of these news reports.

As you can see, the bit that you bolded doesn't logically follow from the part just before.

What do you mean?

 

[minniebeth]

I've followed this thread carefully everyday, but often don't post since so many of you have so much knowledge and techical information, I feel I'm not necessarily qualified to comment about it. I just read and post as a concerned parent. While I've not been panicked about the whole H1N1 situation, I've been educating myself and preparing a just in case scenario.
I have a DD with severe asthma and compromised immune system.
The other day we had an allergist appointment and DD's lung capacity levels at best are registering at 68%. She is being treated accordingly, but when I asked the allergist her opinions and advice for H1N1, she said that she is "freaked out" by the situation (not very professional wording IMO) and that she does recommend the vaccine for DD when it comes out regardless of concern of the adjuvant, etc. She also said, that the vaccine might not be in time anyway, by the time it is ready to go, they get the vaccine and it takes its time to be effective in the body that many will already become sickened with the virus at the rate it is spreading.
She said that it is with patients like DD that this virus is most dangerous for.

Well, I'm taking her "freak outedness" with a grain of salt, but now I am much more concerned about this than I have been.

Thanks to everyone for following the H1N1 information and keeping many of us informed, it is appreciated!

 

[sbell111]

What do you mean?

What do you mean what do I mean?

Sixty percent of the deaths cover those who have underlying health problems," Chan said. "This means that 40 percent of the fatalities concern young adults -- in good health -- who die of a viral fever in five to seven days.

Chan assumed that the 60% of people who died due to underlying health problems was evenly distributed throughout the population. For all we know, all of the young adults who died had underlying health problems and the people who died without having previous underlying health problems were in older or younger population groups. Further, all of the 'health' people who have people who have died from H1N1 have not died from 'viral fever' or died within five to seven days.

Frankly, every bit of the second part of that statement was conjecture. I haven't bothered to fact check the first part.

 

[sbell111]

I've followed this thread carefully everyday, but often don't post since so many of you have so much knowledge and techical information, I feel I'm not necessarily qualified to comment about it. I just read and post as a concerned parent. While I've not been panicked about the whole H1N1 situation, I've been educating myself and preparing a just in case scenario.
I have a DD with severe asthma and compromised immune system.
The other day we had an allergist appointment and DD's lung capacity levels at best are registering at 68%. She is being treated accordingly, but when I asked the allergist her opinions and advice for H1N1, she said that she is "freaked out" by the situation (not very professional wording IMO) and that she does recommend the vaccine for DD when it comes out regardless of concern of the adjuvant, etc. She also said, that the vaccine might not be in time anyway, by the time it is ready to go, they get the vaccine and it takes its time to be effective in the body that many will already become sickened with the virus at the rate it is spreading.
She said that it is with patients like DD that this virus is most dangerous for.

Well, I'm taking her "freak outedness" with a grain of salt, but now I am much more concerned about this than I have been.

Thanks to everyone for following the H1N1 information and keeping many of us informed, it is appreciated!

I think that you are making Pennykay's point, but not how she intended.

It really sounds like the allergist hasn't kept current on this flu and is just talking out of ignorant fear. I think that you should talk to your child's primary care doc and see what she says.

 

[Pennykay]

I see what you are saying, that she is being too general. I would think that she is doing more than assuming and that she does know exact numbers and that she is trying to give people an idea of what is going on. Like you said, there is so much information out there coming from every direction, all we can do is keep trying to educate ourselves with the facts as best we can and try to make informed decisions.

 

[N.Bailey]

The other option is that H1N1 is overcounted in some areas because actual cases of allergies, colds, bronchitis, 'stomach flu', strep, etc are mistakenly called 'swine flu'.

I don't think this is true. There are no unconfirmed cases counted in any swine tally.

They are grossly underestimated and it's my opinion that it's in the thousands if not the tens of thousands.

Knowing true figures would grossly drop the death toll percentage. That's why I have a really tough time wrapping my brain around the articles that suggest funeral directors (as one example) in NY prepare for 50,000 to 80,000 additional deaths over a 3 month span.

Someone is either hitting unjustified panic buttons, or the public isn't being informed of something.

 

[luvwinnie]

Sorry if this has been posted...article about the 36 children swine has killed
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/04/health/research/04flu-001.html

 

[Pennykay]

"I think that you are making Pennykay's point, but not how she intended."

Not necessarily true. Misinformed is misinformed regardless of which way the information goes.

 

[N.Bailey]

Or that people in here are misinformed. There is an incredible amount of bad information running around. Frequently, this junk lands in threads like this one where it swirls around and around, taken and repeated as gospel.

Simply put, the average doctor is more qualified to make diagnoses than the average forum denizen.

That's simply not true at all. The ONLY way to diagnosed is to be tested. No doctor can look at you and say you have it without performing testing. Then add in that the Rapid test is very faulty, doctors who use it only are no more able to diagnose it than posters on a message board if that test comes back negative (and the vast majority of positive cases do come back negative with this test).

Then you see doctors giving Tamiflu for cases that are not confirmed or cases that pretty mild and they are NOT helping the problem at all. They're enabling the virus to build up an immunity faster, thus yielding it more ineffective for those who do come down with severe cases.

 

[sbell111]

I don't think this is true. There are no unconfirmed cases counted in any swine tally.

They are grossly underestimated and it's my opinion that it's in the thousands if not the tens of thousands.

Knowing true figures would grossly drop the death toll percentage. That's why I have a really tough time wrapping my brain around the articles that suggest funeral directors (as one example) in NY prepare for 50,000 to 80,000 additional deaths over a 3 month span.

Someone is either hitting unjustified panic buttons, or the public isn't being informed of something.

We weren't talking about official tallies, I don't believe.

Regarding the funeral directors thing, I believe that they were talking about worse case scenarios. No one actually believes that the death toll will be remotely that high.

 

[sbell111]

That's simply not true at all. The ONLY way to diagnosed is to be tested. No doctor can look at you and say you have it without performing testing. Then add in that the Rapid test is very faulty, doctors who use it only are no more able to diagnose it than posters on a message board if that test comes back negative (and the vast majority of positive cases do come back negative with this test).

Then you see doctors giving Tamiflu for cases that are not confirmed or cases that pretty mild and they are NOT helping the problem at all. They're enabling the virus to build up an immunity faster, thus yielding it more ineffective for those who do come down with severe cases.

What's not true?

None of your post actually disagreed with anything in my post.

 

[MickeyMomTo2]

The other option is that H1N1 is overcounted in some areas because actual cases of allergies, colds, bronchitis, 'stomach flu', strep, etc are mistakenly called 'swine flu'.

My pediatrician told me that they have had cases of people who seemingly had allergy problems that tested postitive for flu. This is not conjecture or someone randomly attributing symptoms to the flu.

And, we know that the totals are grossy underestimated, possibly by millions nationwide, because they are only counting hospitalized cases and deaths. This is also fact and not conjecture.

I also think there are people who have the flu who will just say, "It's just stomach flu (or whatever)" because they don't want it to be swine flu. If it was, they would need to admit the need to stay away from people or alter their schedule, and many people find that too inconvenient. Many also have the "It won't happen to me" attitude.

Regardless, the "official" numbers are WAY lower than actual numbers. We'll never know how much lower, but I doubt you can find evidence to support the overestimation theory.

 

[NEVERENOUGHWDW]

It is very concerning to me how quickly some health care providers are handing out Tamiflu.
I you have a mild case & are in good health why would you jump & take a drug that could cause you to have a resistance to future strains?
Tamiflu also has to be given immediately after symptoms arise, giving the med the next day or longer is no longer effective.

The same thing will occur with Tamiflu that happened with antibiotics. We now have super antibiotics like Cipro, Levaquin. Why? because their earlier cousins became non-effective with so much misuse & abuse.
The bacteria became resistant antibiotics just as this virus is already mutating so Tamiflu is no longer effective in several studies.

I would be very cautious with this drug.

 

[sbell111]

My pediatrician told me that they have had cases of people who seemingly had allergy problems that tested postitive for flu. This is not conjecture or someone randomly attributing symptoms to the flu.

And, we know that the totals are grossy underestimated, possibly by millions nationwide, because they are only counting hospitalized cases and deaths. This is also fact and not conjecture.

I also think there are people who have the flu who will just say, "It's just stomach flu (or whatever)" because they don't want it to be swine flu. If it was, they would need to admit the need to stay away from people or alter their schedule, and many people find that too inconvenient. Many also have the "It won't happen to me" attitude.

Regardless, the "official" numbers are WAY lower than actual numbers. We'll never know how much lower, but I doubt you can find evidence to support the overestimation theory.

It's cool how you started your post with it not being conjecture and followed that with a ton of conjecture.