Swine Flu News

[rie'smom]

I think that the 10-20% death rate is more of a worst case scenario. On the other hand, I wonder what the world population difference is now compared to back in 1918. That alone will drive up the raw numbers quite a bit, even if this flu remains mostly mild. Just looked it up-1918 population was 1.8 Billion, 2009 population is 6.78 Billion. Thinking of it that way, preparing mass graves in case of a worse case scenario is good thinking. I'd hate it if my loved ones couldn't be buried due to lack of preparation-we know we are in a pandemic, we don't know if it will come back more severely in the next year or two-no one knows, but we do know that it sure as heck could. It would be foolish NOT to prepare. Don't you think the people in charge would be raked over the coals if the situation worsened and there was no where to put the dead bodies. I'd be ticked.

It was a 10 to 20% death rate with people who had the flu. Overall it was 2-3% of the world's population.

 

[Tinijocaro]

It was a 10 to 20% death rate with people who had the flu. Overall it was 2-3% of the world's population.

Yes, in 1918, that was true. The article a previous poster is referring to said something about this pandemic possibly having a 10-20% death rate, which hasn't happened (yet) and may never. I was speaking in raw numbers, not percentages-more people equals more illness and more deaths.

 

[JessicaR]

ONe of the more disturbing news bites I've read in a week or two.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0821/breaking4.htm

Chile finds turkey's with swine flu.

Chile says swine flu in turkeys not a threat

Should the outbreak be confirmed, it would be the first case of infection reported in birds and the first time birds have caught the A/H1N1 virus from humans. The virus has been confirmed in only humans and pigs so far.

Even so, the infection is likely to heighten fears that a transmission of the flu virus to birds could lead to a possible mutation of A/H1N1. World health authorities are concerned that swine flu could mutate with a strain of bird flu, creating a more deadly virus that is hard to treat.

The bird infections, if confirmed, don’t represent a threat to humans, Pavletic said. Initial tests also ruled out the presence of H5N1, Sopraval said in the statement.

Swine flu, which causes similar symptoms as seasonal influenza strains, has swept across the globe faster than any other pandemic flu, reaching more than 170 countries and territories in the four months since being identified, the World Health Organization said.

The H5N1 bird flu virus, which isn’t easily transmitted among people, has killed 61 percent of the 432 people infected since 2003, according to the WHO.

Authorities said laboratory results had ruled out the presence of H5N1, or bird flu virus, in the turkeys.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aVFyGLKvnTLw

 

[Tinijocaro]

Chile says swine flu in turkeys not a threat

I agree that it isn't a current threat, but it is a huge potential threat. It's really an odds game though-what are the chances that an animal with bird flu meets up with an animal with swine flu? I think as the swine flu gets around the world, and the longer it stays around, the greater the chance of the two meeting. An incredible killer mated with an incredible spreader, hoping that never happens.

 

[Minnie Lor]

Today's latest article: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,542083,00.html

 

[AlexWyattMommy]

Seriously.

How do you go from "Oh it's mild, mild, mild. Just like seasonal."

to

"The H1N1 flu virus could cause as many as 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States..."



What are you supposed to do with that information?

 

[Tinijocaro]

Seriously.

How do you go from "Oh it's mild, mild, mild. Just like seasonal."

to

"The H1N1 flu virus could cause as many as 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States..."



What are you supposed to do with that information?

No kidding. You prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It's all you can do. No harm in preparing. At least they aren't saying it is going to be at all like the 1918 pandemic-that would be scary.

 

[LuvOrlando]

With regard to the Guillain-Barre, does anyone know how long it takes from the initial stirring of the immune system to show symptoms? The reason I ask is that I know some human testing has already begun. IF it really does cause a higher rate of GB, is there enough time for this to show itself in the test group before the vaccine is released into the general population of will we be the real test subjects due to time constraints?

As an aside: To be safe I got my DS into his new Pulmonary Specialist so the Dr could see him healthy. For both our 1st and second visit the poor kid was a mess so the Dr never even got any readings before today. Now we have a baseline and DS got a clean bill of health before anything comes our way. Today my son's Spirometer reading was 106% (thank heavens he has better than normal capacity) and we went over EVERYTHING on his Asthma Action plan including all medicines. I suspect the Dr expects trouble because the protocol is the kids normally only see him (without a sick visit) every 6 months but he wanted me to keep the November visit anyway. I hope I am prepared. The kids start school Wednesday and I am off to the store to restock for the fall. I really hope I am just spinning my wheels but judging from the moods of both my Pediatrician and this Dr. I am more concerned than at ease.

 

[MickeyMomTo2]

Seriously.

How do you go from "Oh it's mild, mild, mild. Just like seasonal."

to

"The H1N1 flu virus could cause as many as 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States..."



What are you supposed to do with that information?

Seasonal flu kills 30,000+ every year, so saying it's just like seasonal means that it could kill that many or more. The scary difference to me is that it is killing 20-50 year olds. In that way it is much different.

 

[2bearsmom]

Seriously.

How do you go from "Oh it's mild, mild, mild. Just like seasonal."

to

"The H1N1 flu virus could cause as many as 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States..."



What are you supposed to do with that information?

We are supposed to take that info and shove it where the sun don't shine! Taking care of ourselves; eating right, getting enough sleep and reducing stress and exercising can help keep one healthy and better at fighting off illness. But why do that when we can just get a shot full of who knows what that will do who knows what to our body. Just because the government says it's safe and advises us to do it does not mean we should. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-concern-neurologists-25-deaths-America.html

 

[Explodo]

I agree that it isn't a current threat, but it is a huge potential threat. It's really an odds game though-what are the chances that an animal with bird flu meets up with an animal with swine flu? I think as the swine flu gets around the world, and the longer it stays around, the greater the chance of the two meeting. An incredible killer mated with an incredible spreader, hoping that never happens.

exactly...by adding the avian population into the mix, we've now got billions more hosts that can cook this mutation.

All this current stain needs is a single protein to make it more deadly than the 1918 flu. My personal pucker factor just went up a notch or two.

(BTW, I'm a statistician by trade, probabilities are what I do for a living...and this event changes the probabilities drastically)

 

[mefordis]

You are absolutely correct. Thank you.

We are supposed to take that info and shove it where the sun don't shine! Taking care of ourselves; eating right, getting enough sleep and reducing stress and exercising can help keep one healthy and better at fighting off illness. But why do that when we can just get a shot full of who knows what that will do who knows what to our body. Just because the government says it's safe and advises us to do it does not mean we should. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-concern-neurologists-25-deaths-America.html

 

[Tinijocaro]

With regard to the Guillain-Barre, does anyone know how long it takes from the initial stirring of the immune system to show symptoms? The reason I ask is that I know some human testing has already begun. IF it really does cause a higher rate of GB, is there enough time for this to show itself in the test group before the vaccine is released into the general population of will we be the real test subjects due to time constraints?

It looks like symptoms appeared within days, so hopefully, witht ehse trials that are going on, a red flag will be raised if there are any problems since doctors are on alert.



"Within days, symptoms of GBS were reported among those who had been immunised and 25 people died from respiratory failure after severe paralysis. One in 80,000 people came down with the condition. In contrast, just one person died of swine flu.

More than 40million Americans had received the vaccine by the time the programme was stopped after ten weeks. The US Government paid out millions of dollars in compensation to those affected.

The swine flu virus in the new vaccine is a slightly different strain from the 1976 virus, but the possibility of an increased incidence of GBS remains a concern."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ologists-25-deaths-America.html#ixzz0PCB5D7SH

 

[pansmermaidzlagoon]

some things I am trying to sort out from what I am reading:

wasn't the increased risk of G-B thought to be linked to the use of squalene (also implicated in Gulf War syndrome) as an adjuvant? It is my understanding that squalene is planned to be included in swine flu vacs in Europe, but not in US.

Do they know for sure that they will not be using squalene as an adjuvant - or is that possibility still up in the air depending on how many doses they can get out?

I think, from what I have read that they are not currently testing vacs with adjuvants in US - can anyone confirm that? Would they test without adjuvants - and go ahead and decide they need them down the road - and administer vacs with adjuvants without further testing???

 

[bevgray]

You can also get GB from an alergic reaction to a virus. In my case, I developed the GB symptoms within a couple of days of the active symptoms of the virus. Just make sure you share your concerns with your doctor. Not everyone should have the flu shot and some definitely need to have it.

 

[Lucky4me]

I agree that it isn't a current threat, but it is a huge potential threat. It's really an odds game though-what are the chances that an animal with bird flu meets up with an animal with swine flu? I think as the swine flu gets around the world, and the longer it stays around, the greater the chance of the two meeting. An incredible killer mated with an incredible spreader, hoping that never happens.

Novel H1N1 DOES have avian flu in it.

C&P from wiki-some of the other science sites are so difficult to read, but they all say the same thing.--------------------

In the 2009 flu pandemic, the virus isolated from patients in the United States was found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American Mexican influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."[13] This new strain appears to be a result of reassortment of human influenza and swine influenza viruses, in all four different strains of subtype H1N1.

Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. The six genes from American swine flu are themselves mixtures of swine flu, bird flu, and human flu viruses.[14] While viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[15]

On June 11, 2009, the WHO declared an H1N1 pandemic, moving the alert level to phase 6, marking the first global pandemic since the 1968 Hong Kong flu.[16]

------------------------------------

So while this did already happen, so far what's in the petri dish has not become as deadly as 1918. Will it eventually? That's what everyone is worried about.
Another good site is recombinomics.com
Warning, it's a lot of scientific stuff and kind of scary.

 

[C.Ann]

Still trying to stay up to speed here, but I have to admit that this thread is getting just a little more frightening each time I read it..

School has only been in session in some areas for 3 weeks or so and the outbreaks have begun.. Definitely not a "normal" pattern - since it's not flu season in those areas..

Every night I pray that this thing will fizzle out, but those prayers aren't being answered (at least not the way "I" would like them to be answered)..

Does anyone have any "good" news to share?

 

[Tinijocaro]

Novel H1N1 DOES have avian flu in it.

C&P from wiki-some of the other science sites are so difficult to read, but they all say the same thing.--------------------

In the 2009 flu pandemic, the virus isolated from patients in the United States was found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses – North American Mexican influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe – "an unusually mongrelised mix of genetic sequences."[13] This new strain appears to be a result of reassortment of human influenza and swine influenza viruses, in all four different strains of subtype H1N1.

Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. The six genes from American swine flu are themselves mixtures of swine flu, bird flu, and human flu viruses.[14] While viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S.[15]

On June 11, 2009, the WHO declared an H1N1 pandemic, moving the alert level to phase 6, marking the first global pandemic since the 1968 Hong Kong flu.[16]

------------------------------------

So while this did already happen, so far what's in the petri dish has not become as deadly as 1918. Will it eventually? That's what everyone is worried about.
Another good site is recombinomics.com
Warning, it's a lot of scientific stuff and kind of scary.

No, it did not already happen. It's not the same thing. Can't explain now, in a hurry, but H1N1 has not yet mixed with H5N1. That's why it is news that Turkeys in Chili have H1N1. I understand that H1N1 is made up of bird, pig and human viruses, but that does not mean that the two different strains (H1N1 and H5N1) have met.

 

[sbell111]

We are supposed to take that info and shove it where the sun don't shine! Taking care of ourselves; eating right, getting enough sleep and reducing stress and exercising can help keep one healthy and better at fighting off illness. But why do that when we can just get a shot full of who knows what that will do who knows what to our body. Just because the government says it's safe and advises us to do it does not mean we should. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-concern-neurologists-25-deaths-America.html

Wow. Are all of the Daily Mail's stories just sensationalist hatchet jobs?

 

[MickeyMomTo2]

Wow. Are all of the Daily Mail's stories just sensationalist hatchet jobs?

I don't know about all their articles, but that one shouldn't have been printed. They used a story from 30 years ago, but wrote it in such a way so that it sounds like it is a current problem. I have seen comments from many people who have misinterpreted the article, thinking 25 people have died "secretly" in the last few weeks because of the vaccine.

This article should have either been written more clearly or not printed at all.