Super Busy after Irma and Crowd Tracker Accuracy

[gergy9]

Any thoughts as to why the drop?

 

[anniemae]

Any thoughts as to why the drop?

I was wondering the same thing. It seems strange that it would drop with more people booking. Strange.

 

[Tigger's ally]

I just got an email today and I'm surprised some of the crowd forecasts are lower than they were before! This is for the week of Sept. 24:

• September 24, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

• September 26, 2017: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

• September 26, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

• September 28, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.

• September 28, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.

• September 29, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 3.

My guess are no florida visitors as cleanups and the cost of same have led to a bunch of cancellations from them??????????

 

[heather13]

Well I got the email this morning and all of our mid-October dates went up
The idea to go to Disney at the last minute was based on so many days being a level 4, and some are now up to a 7. We've had really good luck using the crowd tracker our previous two visits and completely respect the data analysis, so I have faith in their accuracy.

We had all of our days planned based on crowd levels (and BOG reservation) but now I wonder if we should readjust.

 

[Farro]

.

 

[Farro]

Well I got the email this morning and all of our mid-October dates went up
The idea to go to Disney at the last minute was based on so many days being a level 4, and some are now up to a 7. We've had really good luck using the crowd tracker our previous two visits and completely respect the data analysis, so I have faith in their accuracy.

We had all of our days planned based on crowd levels (and BOG reservation) but now I wonder if we should readjust.

3 pts is a big jump. Ours only went up a point, not on all days. Highest day is still only a 6 and it's one day.

 

[heather13]

To clarify, the 4 days didn't jump to 7 - but a 5 and 6 day did. (sorry, just reread my message and didn't realize how it sounded).
Still, 2 points is a little worrisome. Crossing fingers that there won't be more changes - I think we can adapt enough if the calendar is relatively accurate.

ETA: Farro, yours are definitely lower than a few weeks earlier. Should be a good trip!

 

[LadyRayado]

These are the only changes for my trip:

• October 04, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 3.
• October 07, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 7 to 6.
• October 07, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.

Surprised 2/3 dropped - and we leave the morning of the 7th anyway.

 

[999_Happy_Haunts]

When reading these email updates, keep in mind that the Crowd Tracker is not a computer system that is tied in to Disney's resort booking, ADR booking and/or advanced ticket sales systems. They aren't using any hard data to make their predictions. Most of what they do is tied to past performance and frankly, what just happened with Irma is rather unprecedented. There are assumptions built upon assumptions, and when all is said and done, they might prove to be prescient or might prove to be off the mark. Things to consider would be: the stark decrease in local guests (especially from southeast and southwest FL) which would drive attendance down; The "crunch" of other guests who shifted their vacations from September to October which would drive attendance up; the possibility that people who were booked on Caribbean cruises/vacations for any time between September and, frankly, who-knows-how-far-into-the-future, might have either had their cruises/vacations cancelled or opted to cancel voluntarily, causing them to book a different warm weather vacation with WDW being a pretty popular choice (especially among families) which would drive attendance up. And there are lots of other variables that have to be considered, none of which the Crowd Tracker can "predict". All it can do at this point is guess. In order to be predictive, Touring Plans would have to have a high level of data from sources it simply doesn't have access to. They don't know how many people who had rented villas in St. Maarten or St. John in October have now pivoted over to WDW any more than we do.

 

[ckb_nc]

The cruise thing - my parents and my family have one planned over Christmas. 2 of the 4 ports of call are closed right now, with St Marten for sure not opening any time soon. The cruise line (not Disney) cannot tell us where we are going so I am advising my parents to cancel. Why? Likely we would be headed to the western Caribbean which is fine BUT it means other lines will be double booking ports or ports not use to the volume. Imagine going to WDW with two parks closed - at Christmas. Bit of a stretch of an analogy but for my older parents it seemed to work.

So yeah expect some cruise folks to pivot to WDW. The cruise industry is going to struggle this year. St. Thomas and St Marten are major, major ports. I feel for those places but they have far more important issues in the short term. The another port on our itinerary is Antigua is open despite what it may appear online.

 

[999_Happy_Haunts]

Likely we would be headed to the western Caribbean which is fine BUT it means other lines will be double booking ports or ports not use to the volume.

It is difficult to imagine just how crowded Cozumel is going to be for the next year+. Belize is a "tender port" so there is a finite amount of ship traffic it can handle. Same with Grand Cayman. Roatan isn't nearly as big as St. Thomas and can't absorb all that traffic. There is going to be serious jockeying for port space, and serious crowding in the Western ports for quite some time.

 

[goaljira]

Epcot was empty today. Soarin', Testtrack and Frozen were all pretty much walk on all morning. Did all 3(Soarin twice), Living with the land, Figment, and Missipn space all by 12:00.

 

[ckb_nc]

It is difficult to imagine just how crowded Cozumel is going to be for the next year+. Belize is a "tender port" so there is a finite amount of ship traffic it can handle. Same with Grand Cayman. Roatan isn't nearly as big as St. Thomas and can't absorb all that traffic. There is going to be serious jockeying for port space, and serious crowding in the Western ports for quite some time.

Cayman is a great example - excellent place with limited bandwidth; add a couple of big ships and its a real zoo. So yeah I don;t think we are heading to the Caribbean for Christmas.

 

[Minniekins]

3 pts is a big jump. Ours only went up a point, not on all days. Highest day is still only a 6 and it's one day.

Walt Disney World Crowd Tracker Updates!

• October 26, 2017: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 3 to 4.
• October 26, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• October 27, 2017: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 5 to 6.
• October 27, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 5 to 4.
• October 29, 2017: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.
• October 31, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 2 to 3.
• November 01, 2017: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 3 to 2.
• November 02, 2017: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 1 to 2.
• November 03, 2017: Epcot Crowd Level updated from 4 to 5.

Ooh, I was looking down the list hoping my dates for Nov 8-12 would be there, lol. And showing low numbers! But things for those dates don't look too bad really, not huge jumps one way or the other.

 

[linzjane88]

Epcot was empty today. Soarin', Testtrack and Frozen were all pretty much walk on all morning. Did all 3(Soarin twice), Living with the land, Figment, and Missipn space all by 12:00.

Animal Kingdom was too! EE was a walk on as was Safari.. It was great.

 

[Mickey's Best Girl]

Well I got the email this morning and all of our mid-October dates went up
The idea to go to Disney at the last minute was based on so many days being a level 4, and some are now up to a 7. We've had really good luck using the crowd tracker our previous two visits and completely respect the data analysis, so I have faith in their accuracy.

We had all of our days planned based on crowd levels (and BOG reservation) but now I wonder if we should readjust.

Honestly. For your situation I'm glad you got a heads up on crowd levels. Someone going into an October vacation expecting low crowds is going to be VERY disappointed - and that was before hurricane Irma.

IMO mid October crowds are only a level four if it's out of 5

We've been relegated to mid/late October trips for the last few years due to my DDs post secondary school schedule and it's been very busy during these weeks - and getting increasingly busy as the years go by.

I think you should keep things the way you have them planned and just roll with the punches. Don't sweat what you have no control over - go and have a super time!

 

[Spencer Wright]

Right. From what I've seen a large portion changed a week or two out, not a month.
First week in October is fall break throughout the South. It's going to be crowded. Probably not far from Spring break.

Fall break? Is that something new?

More and more on these boards it seems peak and low times of the year are becoming a thing of the past.

 

[pennytrip]

I am bringing my special needs daughter (19yoa disney addict) down on Saturday. We picked this week because of the low crowds which has changed somewhat because of Irma. My plan was to do Mon-Fri mornings because that is probably all she will have patience for. I saw on touring plans facebook that Thursday looks to be a 5. Would anyone recommend changing it to Sunday which is predicted to be a 3? I was avoiding weekends because I thought it would be too much for her. I have no experience with how accurate the predictions tend to be. We have FP for Thursday but the things she likes are not really the ones in high demand so getting new ones not problem. Leave as is or chance a Sunday? Thanks

 

[AngiTN]

Fall break? Is that something new?

More and more on these boards it seems peak and low times of the year are becoming a thing of the past.

Depends on how you define new. Our schools have had them for at least 10 years or so. It's pretty common around the South. We go back to school in early August and it just fits in our schedules to get in a week in the Fall, 3 weeks in Christmas, a week in Spring and then we're out before Memorial Day.

 

[1m1b]

I am bringing my special needs daughter (19yoa disney addict) down on Saturday. We picked this week because of the low crowds which has changed somewhat because of Irma. My plan was to do Mon-Fri mornings because that is probably all she will have patience for. I saw on touring plans facebook that Thursday looks to be a 5. Would anyone recommend changing it to Sunday which is predicted to be a 3? I was avoiding weekends because I thought it would be too much for her. I have no experience with how accurate the predictions tend to be. We have FP for Thursday but the things she likes are not really the ones in high demand so getting new ones not problem. Leave as is or chance a Sunday? Thanks

I've only been once, but my ds has autism, making us kind of a similar situation. When we went that happened that Saturday was slammed (thankfully we weren't in the parks but at a wedding) and Sunday was GREAT, even in MK. I think, just looking at things, that the sooner you get there the better. It seems like the low crowds are due to logistics and levels are likely only to go up. We're going in a few weeks, and I'm getting kind of scared that the rebound and people making up their dates could be in full swing when we get there. I think we might do more days and do shorter days. I'm also going to try to have some off the grid options, things that aren't as popular. That way if it *is* busy we'll still be doing stuff, just not as in the thick of it.

But yeah, if I could adjust and go earlier, like right now, I definitely would.