SSR Contract Sales Data - Projected Sell-Out Date: Nov 2007

[TroyWDW]

Below are two charts that show the Saratoga Springs Resort contract sales data. This information is based upon dates that deeds are recorded, not the signing date. Hence, pre-sales will all appear in one large block of time (e.g. May-2004, Feb-2005).

I've pivoted the data in two ways:
1) Contracts by Month
2) Contracts by Building

The "Contracts by Month" chart shows that DVC has been averaging ~1700 contracts of SSR per month for the past year.

The "Contracts by Bldg" chart shows that each building requires ~4100 contracts to sell-out. The last building (#12) of Phase2 will reach "sell-out" status next month based on deed records. Currently, there is about a 1 month lag between signing date and recording date. This means that Phase2 is sold out now and this concurs with the information that is being reported by new buyers.

From this information, I can make a projection of when SSR Phase3 will sell-out assuming the current sales trends continue.

Phase3 will have 6 buildings.

(6 Bldg) x (4100 contracts / Bldg) x (1 month / 1700 contracts) = 14 months to sell remaining SSR Phase3 points

Based upon the historical data, I'm predicting the projected sell-out date of SSR will be: November 2007



Chart 1

Chart 2

Please note that the dates used in the charts are based upon the Deed recording date, not the signing date.

 

[Steamboat Bill]

amazing post...thanks for the info.

Now let's try to figure out what the next resort will be?

 

[dvc_john]

Interesting! Thanks for the info.

One thing that may affect your projections:
In the past, when a resort neared sell-out, there tended to be a buying frenzy. This was particularly noticeable when BWV neared sell-out. Guides were swamped! Also, buildings 62-64 at OKW went very fast. So I suspect it may even be a little sooner than that.

 

[wisbucky]

I have to agree with DVC John that as sell out comes nearer people will be more likely to add on and friends and family buying in. I wouldnt be one bit shocked if SSR was sold out by the beginning of summer 2007.

 

[tomandrobin]

That's great news to hear!

I remember when I first joined reading all the negative posts from certain individuals about how far behind sales were, how it DVC was going to have a hard time selling Saratoga. I wonder what they all think now. Probably a silence bunch now.

If they do sell out next year, I guess there will be at least the end of 2008 before a new resort is complete. If they start construction within the next three months.

 

[disneycrazed139]

What a really interesting post. Was it a lot of work to obtainal all this information? Thanks!

 

[TroyWDW]

What a really interesting post. Was it a lot of work to obtainal all this information? Thanks!

It takes more than a few hours to compile all of the information.


Another interesting estimate is the monthly sales DVC generates.

(1700 Contracts / Month) x (185 Points / Contract) x (98 $ / Point) = $30,821,000 per month

Current estimate: DVC turns $30 million in sales each month or $370 million annually.



The 185 points/contract is an estimate of the average size of a contract sold for the given time period.
The 1700 contracts/month is an estimate of the average number of contracts sold per month for the given time period.

 

[esulerzy]

TroyWDW - GREAT information! Thanks!

I have a question, however. You state:

The "Contracts by Month" chart shows that DVC has been averaging ~1700 contracts of SSR per month for the past year.
How many points does a "contract" equal? Or, is the 1700 contracts = 1700 points. Trying to figure out how many points make up one building with a "sold out" status. Would be interesting to know.

Thanks again for the analysis

 

[Maistre Gracey]

WOW!

MG

 

[dvc_john]

The "Contracts by Month" chart shows that DVC has been averaging ~1700 contracts of SSR per month for the past year. How many points does a "contract" equal? Or, is the 1700 contracts = 1700 points. Trying to figure out how many points make up one building with a "sold out" status. Would be interesting to know.

I think TroyWDW is using 185 points/contract as an average.

At SSR, a 2-br for 1 year = approx 15086 points.
A GV for 1 year = approx 32698 points.

15086 X 44 2-br units = 663784 points
32698 X 2 GV's = 65396
Total per building = approx 729180 points.
(Of course DVD holds back a small percentage for maintenance, etc.)

 

[esulerzy]

Those are amazing numbers!

 

[paulh]

as a matter of intrest whats the turnover in dues for everone in dvc?
Paulh

 

[BirdsOfPreyDave]

Current estimate: DVC turns $30 million in sales each month or $370 million annually.

No wonder they can afford to set out free donuts and orange juice in the sales center.

 

[TroyWDW]

I have a question, however. You state:

The "Contracts by Month" chart shows that DVC has been averaging ~1700 contracts of SSR per month for the past year.
How many points does a "contract" equal? Or, is the 1700 contracts = 1700 points.

As dvc_john correctly stated, the 185 points I'm using in the estimation is the average number of points per contract sold for the given time period. Of course, this number changes from contract-to-contract, month-to-month, etc. But, when you consider the large number of contracts sold in a given year, it is a very good average estimate. (I'll update the original message to make it clearer)

Trying to figure out how many points make up one building with a "sold out" status. Would be interesting to know.

I use a different approach to estimate the total points for a given building than dvc_john. But, the good news is I get a very similar answer. For example, Building 5 has ~729,200 total points.

 

[TroyWDW]

as a matter of intrest whats the turnover in dues for everone in dvc?

I'm not sure if I understand your question. What do you mean by "turnover in dues" ?

 

[paulh]

I'm not sure if I understand your question. What do you mean by "turnover in dues" ?

What do disney take in dues each year from all the dvc resorts.I know they get $800 from me every jan
Paulh

 

[Boston5602]

What do disney take in dues each year from all the dvc resorts.I know they get $800 from me every jan
Paulh

Disney doesn't get the dues every January. They do get a percentage for a management fee but the rest goes to the property you own. We as owners pay for everything at the resort like the electric bill and the insurance bills and the staff has to get paid , and if you don't want to walk to the Magic Kingdom you'll need to pay for that bus ride.

 

[paulh]

what i would like to know is what it the total income from dues.Thanks
Paulh

 

[TroyWDW]

what i would like to know is what it the total income from dues.Thanks
Paulh

JimC posted the following message that summarizes the total points for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=11801367&postcount=3

Manning posted the following message that summarizes the 2006 Dues for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=10645299&postcount=1

Using the information from those two posts I did some simple math assuming the information provided is valid.


2006 Information
Resort__________Points______Dues_______TotalDues
OKW__________7,700,000_____$4.24_____$32,648,000
VBsub________3,100,000_____$4.12_____$12,772,000
VBunsub______1,600,000_____$5.27______$8,432,000
HH___________1,400,000_____$4.34______$6,076,000
BWV__________4,900,000_____$4.69_____$22,981,000
VWL__________2,000,000_____$4.61______$9,220,000
BCV__________3,000,000_____$4.48_____$13,440,000
SSR__________7,100,000_____$3.98_____$28,258,000

Total_______30,800,000______....____$133,827,000


The total points for SSR needs to be checked to see if that is for 12 or 18 Buildings.

VBsub = subsidized contracts
VBunsub = unsubsidized contracts

I didn't check these numbers against the Operating Budgets to see if they are close.

 

[tomandrobin]

JimC posted the following message that summarizes the total points for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=11801367&postcount=3

Manning posted the following message that summarizes the 2006 Dues for each DVC Resort.
http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=10645299&postcount=1

Using the information from those two posts I did some simple math assuming the information provided is valid.


2006 Information
Resort__________Points______Dues_______TotalDues
OKW__________7,700,000_____$4.24_____$32,648,000
VBsub________3,100,000_____$4.12_____$12,772,000
VBunsub______1,600,000_____$5.27______$8,432,000
HH___________1,400,000_____$4.34______$6,076,000
BWV__________4,900,000_____$4.69_____$22,981,000
VWL__________2,000,000_____$4.61______$9,220,000
BCV__________3,000,000_____$4.48_____$13,440,000
SSR__________7,100,000_____$3.98_____$28,258,000

Total_______30,800,000______....____$133,827,000


The total points for SSR needs to be checked to see if that is for 12 or 18 Buildings.

VBsub = subsidized contracts
VBunsub = unsubsidized contracts

I didn't check these numbers against the Operating Budgets to see if they are close.

That's one heck of an operating budget!