Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[muppets3d]

It's hilarious to me how often people bring up investing and throwing out words like the time value of money when discussing buying DVC.

If you're that serious about investing and growing wealth, buying a timeshare would be the last thing you'd ever do.

 

[VGCgroupie]

TVOM has nothing to do with whether or not the money is invested in the interim. It is simply the fact that a dollar today buys more than a dollar ten years from now, because inflation is a thing.

They said TVOM so that’s where I went.

Yes inflation is a thing tell me like I’m stupid why that means SSR is a better deal? I can’t see how inflation would make SSR a better deal. SSR and all resorts should inflate the same …

 

[VGCgroupie]

It's hilarious to me how often people bring up investing and throwing out words like the time value of money when discussing buying DVC.

If you're that serious about investing and growing wealth, buying a timeshare would be the last thing you'd ever do.

100%

 

[Mikey15]

I would counter your time value with immediate loss of value of SSR vs Poly. There will also be more loss of value on SSR than Poly in the long run as well. So please take that into account just as you would time value of money.

Doesn’t seem that huge based on the MB option?

SSR-200 at $150/pt versus $100/pt resale value?
Vs
PVB-150/200 at $198-199/pt versus $160 resale.

Math is math and obviously a drop of $40 is less than $50, but that’s not as big a difference as you’d think.

 

[gvel]

Add in waiting for the next to come because the first is full. Add in waiting for ecv’s to be loaded up. Add in bus being late for whatever reason they run late for. Add in bus drivers making wrong turns. These problems are much less or non existent on Skyliner and Monorail.

I kind of get this. But I had to wait numerous times for the next 1-2 monorails. Also the skyliner seems to be stopped every time there some rain and or mild winds. This is Orlando we are talking about. This comes from someone who prefers the skyliner over the monorail.

Also, everyone needs to take at least 2 buses to go to 2 parks.

 

[airjay75]

Doesn’t seem that huge based on the MB option?

SSR-200 at $150/pt versus $100/pt resale value?
Vs
PVB-150/200 at $198-199/pt versus $160 resale.

Math is math and obviously a drop of $40 is less than $50, but that’s not as big a difference as you’d think.

That’s a 20% drop for PVB vs. a $33.3% drop for SSR. And, I’d personally be much more confident in PVB retaining its value than SSR.

 

[Tatebeck]

I fully disclosed the methodology and locations. You just removed Disney Springs and added an arbitrary 5 minutes...but sure... I'm the one cherry-picking.

Yes, your comparison was the one cherry picking.

You were comparing the best possible travel times for 2 resorts vs the average travel time for the other resorts, which is obviously not a fair comparison.

It also included Disney springs, which far fewer people go to WDW for or are traveling to in a rush, so it is not that relevant. It is called removing the outliers and it gives you a more accurate data set to actually compare similar things.

You could do something similar with VGF and add a column for travel to the nearest Disney Spa, and VGF would fly up the chart because it is the only DVC resort location with one right now. But that would be another big outlier and not useful.

What I did was compare the data more fairly by trying for the actual average travel time to the most important locations. And IMO I was very fair and the actual travel time added would probably be more than 5 minutes.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Doesn’t seem that huge based on the MB option?

SSR-200 at $150/pt versus $100/pt resale value?
Vs
PVB-150/200 at $198-199/pt versus $160 resale.

Math is math and obviously a drop of $40 is less than $50, but that’s not as big a difference as you’d think.

$100 for Saratoga’s is very high. Something like that would be fully loaded vs a stripped Poly.

But also as each year passes SSR has less years left than Poly so that will make the contract less valuable. There is an extra 12 years at Poly. And to be honest that alone is worth the extra for Poly.

It’s as if people need to be given justification for buying SSR and there’s a reason for that. You see people excited when they buy Poly they don’t need reassurance it was a good deal.

 

[juliebee]

I know I'm about to get a lot of hate for this, but I think the whole monorail resort argument is overrated from an efficiency standpoint. Sure you're close to MK and the monorail is a magical way to get to the parks, but that whole TTC transfer to EPCOT is a killer. You can get to EPCOT quicker from SSR and OKW.

I will take it even a little further. Pound for pound if you consider average travel times to all 4 parks and Disney Springs from each resort using the most efficient Disney transportation, SSR (preferred) and OKW (near hospitality) rank higher than many beloved or more "premium" resorts.

View attachment 1049221

For Poly the numbers improve if you're staying in Moorea or Pago and you walk to the TTC.

Saying these number are accurate, it's an 8 minute difference from 22.8 minutes to 14.8 minutes. So round trip that is 16 minutes a day. If 16 minutes makes or breaks your vacation, you need to relax a bit more.

 

[Tatebeck]

That’s a 20% drop for PVB vs. a $33.3% drop for SSR. And, I’d personally be much more confident in PVB retaining its value than SSR.

$100 for Saratoga’s is very high. Something like that would be fully loaded vs a stripped Poly.

But also as each year passes SSR has less years left than Poly so that will make the contract less valuable. There is an extra 12 years at Poly. And to be honest that alone is worth the extra for Poly.

It’s as if people need to be given justification for buying SSR and there’s a reason for that. You see people excited when they buy Poly they don’t need reassurance it was a good deal.

Yep, and SSR is faster to 0. In 2054 it will have lost 100% of value while Poly will have lost maybe 50% or less? Or maybe 75% if very unlucky?

 

[VGCgroupie]

I kind of get this. But I had to wait numerous times for the next 1-2 monorails. Also the skyliner seems to be stopped every time there some rain and or mild winds. This is Orlando we are talking about. This comes from someone who prefers the skyliner over the monorail.

Also, everyone needs to take at least 2 buses to go to 2 parks.

Everyone has different experiences. I have not had those. There are ECV's at least every other bus ride, the wind doesnt shut down the Skyliner everyday. I had to wait for a Monorail, is was maybe 4 minutes at most, the bus comes around every 20 minutes. Thats a big difference.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Yep, and SSR is faster to 0. In 2054 it will have lost 100% of value while Poly will have lost maybe 50% or less? Or maybe 75% if very unlucky?

Right? Like I really just do not get these arguments for SSR direct. The only way I would say buy SSR direct over Poly is if the person didn't have the extra money for Poly over SSR and were financing it. But even then Id say it's better to buy resale at that point.

 

[eticketplease]

Doesn’t seem that huge based on the MB option?

SSR-200 at $150/pt versus $100/pt resale value?
Vs
PVB-150/200 at $198-199/pt versus $160 resale.

Math is math and obviously a drop of $40 is less than $50, but that’s not as big a difference as you’d think.

SSR is a bigger contract which usually equates to less $ on resale and a longer time sitting there.
If you are going to say 200 PVB then the incentives would lower that direct price even more.

I am seeing SSR contracts around $90 for the 200 pointers with 30 listings vs only 5 and a low price of $162 for those 150 point contracts.

So if these numbers held true just next year you are looking at a $60 difference at SSR vs $40 at PVB

But if you are needing to sell that generally means you need the cash and we can see with more SSR on the market yours will likely sit for longer.

 

[Girlstar30]

Could you post a picture ?
Mickey & Minnie driving in a mail post delivery van ?
I would love it if it was a postcard you received .
Did you actually get a letter in the mail ?

Yes! No its them driving in a red corvette like car with the top down! Its a card thanking you for doing a tour. Everytime I talk to a guide I receive one. I usually chat with them at the dvc kiosk just to talk about dvc so ive accumulated quite a lot of them lol! This most recent one from vdh. Yes they mail it to you like a week or two after. I will take a lic and post as soon as I get uo give me 30 lol!

 

[muppets3d]

Yep, and SSR is faster to 0. In 2054 it will have lost 100% of value while Poly will have lost maybe 50% or less? Or maybe 75% if very unlucky?

You have no idea what a resale Poly contract will be worth in 2054, neither does anyone else. It's not a good idea to try to predict things like that, when a huge amount of it's future value is based on DVC's decisions that we have zero control over.

 

[Girlstar30]

Efficiency yes. Magical no.

Being able to leave a sleeping child in a stroller and board the monorail, boat or skyliner is where the magic is rather than removing said child and then breaking down the stroller to board the bus.

And watch the time for bus arrival keep moving up and up and up. And God forbid the park close early and you didnt know about it and then you have to bus it to disney springs and do a 1 and a half hour drive. That happened to us when we decided to have dinner at Riviera and the park closed. Never again lol! Monorail it up!

 

[VGCgroupie]

You have no idea what a resale Poly contract will be worth in 2054, neither does anyone else. It's not a good idea to try to predict things like that, when a huge amount of it's future value is based on DVC's decisions that we have zero control over.

It has to be worth more than $50 per point especially with inflation that has been pointed out. But without certainty it will be worth than $0 at SSR. If its worth $0 then the world is in shambles and DVC and what they bought years ago is the last of anyones worries.

 

[CWTC]

It’s as if people need to be given justification for buying SSR and there’s a reason for that. You see people excited when they buy Poly they don’t need reassurance it was a good deal.

Agreed. DVC is a luxury purchase and if someone needs to go through mental gymnastics to justify it, then maybe it’s not the right purchase. Bus rides are not fun and, recognizing my bias, I just do not believe SSR park transportation is more efficient than our home resorts. But that’s why we own where we own - because of what’s important to us. If someone loves SSR go for it but I hope purchasers are realistic about 7 month availability.

 

[Girlstar30]

Add in waiting for the next to come because the first is full. Add in waiting for ecv’s to be loaded up. Add in bus being late for whatever reason they run late for. Add in bus drivers making wrong turns. These problems are much less or non existent on Skyliner and Monorail.

Add in the bus not coming at all, you about to miss dinner with your family, and the front desk having time call you an uber

 

[Girlstar30]

It's hilarious to me how often people bring up investing and throwing out words like the time value of money when discussing buying DVC.

If you're that serious about investing and growing wealth, buying a timeshare would be the last thing you'd ever do.

This 100% it drives me crazy I dont know how many times ive read, "well you could have taken that and invested it into the SP 500" Like yeah we all could have, but here we are