That's the thing. I don't really think it is balanced out, at least for pure SAP owners. There are a bunch of things happening up until and including the 2042 resorts expiring that will make resale SSR/OKW SAP harder to use and a much smaller amount of things that will provide some relief. I guess it is possible there might be a net dip in the chart of problems for SAP owners for 1 year from 2041-2042 but its a steady uphill bunch of problems from now and well past 2042.
- Expiring resorts that will for sure hurt SSR/OKW SAP: BWV/BCV/BRV
- Expiring resorts that are offsite, but will likely (IMO) still affect SAP owners negatively: HHI/VB
- Expiring resorts that will provide less competition/relief for remaining SAP owners: OKW 2042 (so only a part of 1 resort)
Overall the expiring resorts are ones which IMO SAP owners would try to swap and book at much more than the owners at those resorts would try and swap back into SSR/OKW, resulting in a net loss of a lot of options.
Any additional future direct owners will all have the ability to swap at the O14 resorts as well, and will be looking to use their points occasionally at the beloved resorts, but probably not SSR or OKW as much, adding more pressure.
And any SSR/OKW direct/grandfathered members that sell points between now and 2042 will now have the new owners be locked into just the O14 as well, which would increase the competition in those resorts even further.
If you buy an O14 resort resale, I would just be prepared to stay at that resort a lot leading up to and post 2042