Spreadsheet fun!

[Dillon]

Priceless? I know it to be true - if you all could see the smiles on DiznyDi's face!

 

[RLRDA]

Forget your 401K! Buy DVC!
(Disclaimer: Please don't forget your 401k and consult the services of a certified financial planner).

 

[Tink&PirateMama]

The numbers would depend on what you were going to use the SSR contract for. The numbers would vary based on a few things:

1) CRO charges the same price for Fri-Sat as they Do Sun-Thur. However, DVC charges twice as many points. The spreadsheet I did above is for a full week, so there is a 5 night/2 night weekday/weekend split there. If you mostly do long weekends (maybe 2 night/2 night) that would skew the numbers to take longer to make it up. If you do mostly Sun-Thur stays, then you would make up the cost even quicker.

2) Different resorts have different costs in points and cash. Those differences will skew the numbers a little bit also based on the resort.

3) Different resorts have different annual dues, and the annual dues BY FAR are the single biggest expense of owning DVC. In my spreadsheet, the last 3 years of annual dues exceeds the initial purchase price of the contract. The initial purchase price is $20,384 but you will pay a total of $139,832.90 in annual dues over the life of the contract.

4) The different room types at the different resorts may have different proportions of cash cost vs. point cost. One bedrooms may cost twice as many points as a studio, but maybe only 50% more cash.

Overall, the numbers will work out very certainly for DVC. Even if you only stay Fridays and Saturdays, pay the highest annual dues resort, and stay at the worst cash/point room on property, the numbers will certainly be in favor of DVC, by a long shot.

To put it simply: DVC won't save you money NOW. But in 10, 20, 30, 50 years from now you will pay the same price for your vacations in 2050 as you would for annual pass or the dining plan in 2050. THEN all the non-DVCers will be sick that they paid $32,000 for a week in a studio and all you paid was your annual dues of $7,300.

Thank you! I love this thread!!! Going to email it to DH right now!

 

[tjkraz]

Now show us the scary part...how much are we going to spend for park tickets, dining, souvenirs and airfare over that same period.

 

[logan115]

Now show us the scary part...how much are we going to spend for park tickets, dining, souvenirs and airfare over that same period.

You forgot to add in the cost of "drinking around the world" at Epcot

Chris

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

Now show us the scary part...how much are we going to spend for park tickets, dining, souvenirs and airfare over that same period.

Okay...I'll bite. The number's ain't pretty though. Here is what I came up with:

• Current 8 day Park hopper price: $281 Adults and $246 Kids for a week
• Current Dining Plan Price: $39.99 Adults and $10.99 Kids per day
• I assumed an average souvenir/"drinking around the world"/misc. expenses cost of $20.00 per person per day
• I assumed airfare of around $250 (this will vary wildly based on where you are located, time of year, fuel prices, etc.)
• I assumed your average family that would occupy the studio with 2 adults and 2 kids. Every year.
• All vacation expenses increased by 5% each year (rising ticket prices, dining plan costs, inflation in general).

The number's ain't pretty

Obviously the numbers will fluctuate with everyone's individual vacationing style. I just picked numbers at random that I felt were representative of the most number of members here. Also as new family members are added, kids grow up, grand kids, etc. change, so will the expenses.

The GOOD news is, if you DIDN'T have DVC and paid cash for your rooms, your total cumulative cash cost of all your vacations at WDW would be: $1,314,981. DVC saves you $457,988.73 (or 35% of your life-time total vacationing expenses.)

 

[Mtnman44]

Hmmmm. Better not let Disney see this. They have unwittingly created a guest program whereby you will spend less money on their hotels over the next few decades than you otherwise would have. The fools! ha ha ha ha ha ha.

 

[CarolMN]

Hmmmm. Better not let Disney see this. They have unwittingly created a guest program whereby you will spend less money on their hotels over the next few decades than you otherwise would have. The fools! ha ha ha ha ha ha.

No need to worry about Disney. They got us figured out just fine, LOL.

Hardly any DVC members "save" money by buying DVC. A whole lot of us end up going more often, staying in larger accommodations, and treating friends and relatives. We probably wouldn't do those things without DVC.

Kind of like that new top that I bought but didn't need. Bought because it was on sale and "saved" 40%!!! Never mind that I spent $$ that I hadn't planned to spend until I saw the sale!

 

[Donna M]

With all this money I'll be saving I'm going to book a cruise!

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

Hmmmm. Better not let Disney see this. They have unwittingly created a guest program whereby you will spend less money on their hotels over the next few decades than you otherwise would have. The fools! ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Part of what makes DVC valuable for Disney is not the money that they would have received from selling us vacations. It's the security of a large captive audience that will go every year and spend money in your parks, year after year after year after year.... .... ....after year after year. They are giving up some profit for having a more predictable and steady revenue stream.

During tight economic times, people don't spend as much money on vacation. This hurts Disney. But since us DVCers don't pay more money to use our DVC, we tend to go every year, despite a tough economic climate.

Think about it: Which would you rather have? A contract job that paid you $40 an hour, but when it was over, you didn't know when your next contract job would be? Or being an employee making $30 an hour, but knowing you had a job for the foreseeable future? Most people would take the lower steady reliable income vs. the erratic and riskier higher income.

DVC is just a way for Disney to ensure that they have a steady stream of visitors to the parks.

DVC is also a win-win-win for Disney:
We pay for the construction costs, so there is very little capital risk for Disney...when they've sold all the points, they've paid off their loans on the construction. Any points they haven't sold yet, they get income from renting the inventory through CRO.
We go year after year... buy park tickets, food, souvenirs.
After our contracts are up in 50 years, Disney has a full fledged resort all ready, packaged, and paid for (by us) to do with as it pleases.

 

[Anna114]

Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet. I am going to show this to my husband so he knows we made the right decision!!

LOL I was keeping this page up so I can do the same thing with my husband. Maybe I should hold on to it until I want to add points.

 

[logan115]

No need to worry about Disney. They got us figured out just fine, LOL.

Hardly any DVC members "save" money by buying DVC. A whole lot of us end up going more often, staying in larger accommodations, and treating friends and relatives. We probably wouldn't do those things without DVC.

Kind of like that new top that I bought but didn't need. Bought because it was on sale and "saved" 40%!!! Never mind that I spent $$ that I hadn't planned to spend until I saw the sale!

You've really hit the nail on the head. If we wanted to save money, we'd just stay at the values or heaven forbid - offsite

But in most peoples analysis (including mine), DVC allows you to ulitmately pay value/mod money to stay in DVC rooms. In addition it does provide the chance to stay in much bigger rooms with more things (washer, dryer, kitchen) than you may normally need on vacation.

Other main point is you will probably end up taking friends and family members at some point without it really having a major financial impact. We're waiting to get approval on our contract now, and if it goes thru we're going to take my folks with us next year and stay in a 2BR. I don't think that I could really swing paying for this direct thru CRO (afraid to even punch in dates and see the ridiculous room only costs), and plunking down over $3K to rent points seemed like throwing away money to me.

It is clearly a luxury item, and in all reality we could still go to WDW and have a great time without it. However, if we end up going close to as often as I think, it will allow us to really enhance our stays and for that I'm willing to pay up.

Chris

 

[magicaldisney]

the reason to buy DVC is the Magic it brings into your life . . . the look on your DW or DH's face when planning the next adventure! Priceless!

My thoughts exactly

 

[GuySmiley]

No need to worry about Disney. They got us figured out just fine, LOL.

Hardly any DVC members "save" money by buying DVC. A whole lot of us end up going more often, staying in larger accommodations, and treating friends and relatives. We probably wouldn't do those things without DVC.

Kind of like that new top that I bought but didn't need. Bought because it was on sale and "saved" 40%!!! Never mind that I spent $$ that I hadn't planned to spend until I saw the sale!

I'm a good example of this. I would definitely NOT vacation every year without DVC. But now that I'm a member I will. So I will save money if we assume the same behavior. But that's not realistic. But now Disney twists my arm into going to WDW every year. PLEASE, don't stop the torture!!!

 

[DeeCee735]

Ok - now let's take it to an uber-ridiculous level :

Based on the following :

If I allow both of my kids to each get a Mickey ice cream bar for each day of our week long trips now, but cut back to only letting them get one every other day on every other trip, if I put that cash saved in the bank earning the same interest rate assumed in your calcs how many Mickey ice cream bars will I be able to buy my future grandkids with that money ? BTW the kids are currently DS 5 and DD 5 mos (so although she hasn't been to WDW or eaten ice cream, I expect her to in about a year when she makes her first trip).....

So what's the break-even ?

Just kidding, a bit bored today in case you couldn't tell.

 

[Marc A.]

Great thread guys.
Not a number cruncher so having this all laid out for me is wonderful.
Thanks

 

[Mtnman44]

Well I was just trying to humoursly make the point that for the most part these calculations are academic, not reality. Almost none of us would otherwise have spent X amount on Disney hotels every year for the next few decades. So, if we really wouldn't have spent it, then we haven't really "saved" that money by going with DVC. Go out and buy the biggest TV you can find that is on sale and try to convince the spouse that you have "saved" money. I've tried, it doesn't work.

The fact is, Disney Co. all together, makes more $ with the DVC program than without it. That means we all spend more $ with DVC than without it. I think that the idea that DVC saves us all $, while logical when you sit down and look at hotel costs, is largely an illusion as DVC has actually caused us to alter our behavior from what our vacation habits would have otherwise been. Altered in a way that causes us to spend a lot more money at Disney than we otherwise would have. You alluded to this when you correctly point out that DVC provides them with a new, predictable revenue source.

Part of what makes DVC valuable for Disney is not the money that they would have received from selling us vacations. It's the security of a large captive audience that will go every year and spend money in your parks, year after year after year after year.... .... ....after year after year. They are giving up some profit for having a more predictable and steady revenue stream.

During tight economic times, people don't spend as much money on vacation. This hurts Disney. But since us DVCers don't pay more money to use our DVC, we tend to go every year, despite a tough economic climate.

Think about it: Which would you rather have? A contract job that paid you $40 an hour, but when it was over, you didn't know when your next contract job would be? Or being an employee making $30 an hour, but knowing you had a job for the foreseeable future? Most people would take the lower steady reliable income vs. the erratic and riskier higher income.

DVC is just a way for Disney to ensure that they have a steady stream of visitors to the parks.

DVC is also a win-win-win for Disney:
We pay for the construction costs, so there is very little capital risk for Disney...when they've sold all the points, they've paid off their loans on the construction. Any points they haven't sold yet, they get income from renting the inventory through CRO.
We go year after year... buy park tickets, food, souvenirs.
After our contracts are up in 50 years, Disney has a full fledged resort all ready, packaged, and paid for (by us) to do with as it pleases.

 

[Shleedogg]

More spreadsheet fun:

So, I did some more comparisons, and I decided to do a couple apples-to-oranges comparisons:

First:
--Cumulative total cost of DVC: $160,215.90
--Cumulative total cash cost at a moderate: $286,806.75
--Savings of DVC vs. Moderate: $126,590.85

Second:
--Cumulative total cost of DVC: $160,215.90
--Cumulative total cash cost at a value: $159,941.87
--Savings of DVC vs. Moderate: -$274.03


I think the second one is most interesting: Over the life of the contract, you are staying at a deluxe resort for almost the same cost as the value resort!

Thank you so much for doing all this work for me! I've been meaning to do this to show DH but having a baby at home who doesn't want to be put down makes it a little difficult.

This one is especially helpful as DH and I would never pay cash to stay at a deluxe and would most likely be at a moderate. If DH had his way we'd be at a value. With little kids though we'll need some down time from the parks than we normally would and I'd much prefer that to be at a DVC resort with more room to spread out in the room and have some quiet time around the resort. Plus, I think we'll all much prefer the bed situation at a deluxe/DVC than at a value. We stayed at AS Sports in Jan and had a terrible bed experience.

Thank you again! Here's hoping this will be the convincing DH needs

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

I can see the DVC sales managers scratching their heads wondering why they've had a recent spike in add-on activity....

 

[HilsNPaul]

Great thread!! YourEveryDayAdam, excellent calculations. I'm very impressed. I'd figure out how to do it myself...but you already did it for me!