Somewhere Over China...

[clsteve]

You're telling me in the market known for IP robbery, when other major theme park's plans are in flux, and not to mention Disney has been consistently moving in the direction of holding off public announcement you have a problem with their strategy?

IP theft:
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/not-exactly-disneyland-but-close-enough.177808/
http://www.thethemeparkguy.com/park/happy-valley-beijing/?loc=none
http://www.thethemeparkguy.com/park/world-joyland/?loc=none

Whether targeting Disney or Universal there's a group of opportunistic robbers over there (some of them state owned) that will take concepts, and shamelessly rip them off. Getting traction before these theme park operators move in will keep Disney ahead of the curve while getting them good will and the attention they deserve. Two points as well. First, theme park quality there is abysmal. People will tell the difference as soon as they step into Disneyland. Second, what's with all the IP robbery if no one cares about Disney? Strange...

Fierce competition with plans still in flux:
http://www.latimes.com/travel/themeparks/la-trb-china-theme-park-expansion-20140903-story.html
http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-s...-chinese-theme-parks-pays-off-for-developers/

Not trying to say Universal, Six Flags, and Dream Works are going to copy, (Disney and Universal do have a history of that. DHS and Dueling Dragons Coaster can trace their lineage to their competition.) however knowing what they're up against is an advantage. Disney has first mover advantage, and disadvantage. So they're keeping their cards close while they build so no one can gain that edge. I'm fine with that. The more Universal can be blind sided by Disney's opening, the better. There's billions at play. Disney's not going to make a rookie mistake.

Holding off public announcement:
http://disneyparks.disney.go.com/bl...-of-avatar-to-life-at-disneys-animal-kingdom/

I like this article and video because they still tell us almost nothing. Disney is moving in the direction of Pixar and Apple where leaks are taboo. They don't give detailed descriptions at the beginning, only to have plans change. Surprise is key here.

I trust them to spend the money on a proper roster of rides, attractions, and lands. What do we expect them to spend it on? I'm trusting them to build a great theme park. I don't have the expertise to be a backseat theme park operator. As and investor and a customer I'll determine whether they did a good job.

They're actually looking pretty good on construction.
http://www.thethemeparkguy.com/park/shanghai-disneyland/photos/

Oh, as for that article? Bad PR= Bad. Good PR=Good. Of course they have every incentive to remove a negative article. Apple does that all the time. So do most companies. Not a big deal.

I'm not worried yet. That's not to say I'm immune to worry. Just not worried yet...

?

Opportunistic robbers? They broke ground for SDL in 2011.

DDLand. There is no physical possibility that anyone could steal their IP and beat them to the punch. Come on. Uni isn't going to even start their Chinese Park for several years.

We're not talking about software features in smart device. Or a movie idea, where you need to keep features close to the vest. This is a Theme Park, not a land addition like Avatar in an already established footprint where you want that hint of Willy Wonka secrecy.

Not in China, where we've already established in the previous discussions in this thread that Disney needs as much time as possible to build Brand awareness. Heck, the vast majority of those 330 million potential guests in driving distance couldn't pull Mickey, Minnie, Donald, Anna, nor Elsa out of a line up.

Time to get the word out as soon as possible and get them excited for and educated about that 5.5 billion dollar Theme Park, don't you think?

They're supposed to be opening SDL in a year! Hiring should start in a few months! It takes at least that long to get the true technical core of your staff up and running. Unless Spring 2016 isn't really feasible....

Absolutely no reason at all to stay "secretive". Except as a smoke screen.

As to the article...? They've had dozens of negative articles about things in the past months. Why was that one so much more important to risk so much over to remove in 24 hours...??

Either way, I'll be shocked if there isn't a Grand SDL Dog and Pony Show within the quarter - if not the next few weeks. You can almost feel the fur and .ppt's flying, as we speak. Because, that's the only real bullet they have in the gun that can absolutely kill this. Stop the real analysts they care about from asking the real questions (behind closed doors).

That's the way these things go. It should be an interesting show....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't understand why people are claiming Shangai is going to be a failure or that Disney is not doing this correctly. Time will tell. Disney has set exptremely high attendance goals for Shanghai and if they reach them some people here and over at the other board will have to eat their words. I think that a population of 25 million right next to the park will make it easy to break the Magic Kingdoms attendance marks but so what. Profits are what matters. If Shanghai does not improve the total parks profits significantly then Iger will have to answer why he spent so much. Also if it were such a bad idea to enter China then why is Universal doing it? Six Flags and others?

Perhaps because they know the western middle class is dead? ...And that's who goes to amusement parks?

And maybe china is a stopgap for what they see as happening far sooner than any of us happy world conquerors expect it to?

 

[ChrisFL]

?

Opportunistic robbers? They broke ground for SDL in 2011.

DDLand. There is no physical possibility that anyone could steal their IP and beat them to the punch. Come on. Uni isn't going to even start their Chinese Park for several years.

We're not talking about software features in smart device. Or a movie idea, where you need to keep features close to the vest. This is a Theme Park, not a land addition like Avatar in an already established footprint where you want that hint of Willy Wonka secrecy.

Sorry, I have to agree with DDLand here, copies of Disney's attractions, or even the appearance of the same attractions can be built and built quickly. Disney doesn't have any of the legal safeguards it does here in the states for copying of IP stuff.

The question I have is...what will the admission price be and what is the average income of the guest they are expecting to attract there?

The next 2-3 years will be very interesting for an outside observer.

 

[DDLand]

?

Opportunistic robbers? They broke ground for SDL in 2011.

DDLand. There is no physical possibility that anyone could steal their IP and beat them to the punch. Come on. Uni isn't going to even start their Chinese Park for several years.

We're not talking about software features in smart device. Or a movie idea, where you need to keep features close to the vest. This is a Theme Park, not a land addition like Avatar in an already established footprint where you want that hint of Willy Wonka secrecy. Not in China, where we've already established in the previous discussions in this thread that Disney needs as much time as possible to build Brand awareness. Heck, the vast majority of those 330 million potential guests in driving distance couldn't pull Mickey, Minnie, Donald, Anna, nor Elsa out of a line up.

Time to get the word out as soon as possible and get them excited for and educated about that 5.5 billion dollar Theme Park, don't you think?

They're supposed to be opening SDL in a year! Hiring should start in a few months! It takes at least that long to get the true technical core of your staff up and running. Unless Spring 2016 isn't really feasible....

Absolutely no reason at all to stay "secretive". Except as a smoke screen.

As to the article...? They've had dozens of negative articles about things in the past months. Why was that one so much more important to risk so much over to remove in 24 hours...??

Either way, I'll be shocked if there isn't a Grand SDL Dog and Pony Show within the quarter - if not the next few weeks. You can almost feel the fur and .ppt's flying, as we speak. Because, that's the only real bullet they have in the gun that can absolutely kill this. Stop the real analysts they care about from asking the real questions (behind closed doors).

That's the way these things go. It should be an interesting show....

You're completely missing the critical time period Universal, Six Flags, and Dream Works are in. The decisions they're making right now will determine how they're going to be competing for literally decades. Unlike software or movies where an update or new new movie will be on the way soon, their choices are locked into steel and concrete clsteve. The stakes are immeasurably higher.

I'm not saying by any means that they're going to swoop in and open a new park before Disney. That defies the laws of Chinese construction timetables. What I am saying is the roster of rides and attractions will tip Disney's competitors off to what they're going to be up against. That means they can adapt the offerings into the most potent weapon to fight Disney. If you don't think their competitors will change focus, design, and even increase budget depending on how Shanghai Disney performs; then you're mistaken.

Every month that Disney doesn't reveal plans, means that it's another month of Disney's competitors going on with construction not knowing what Disney is up to. The farther they go means that it's harder to change plans. That's inherently better for Disney.

The opportunistic robbers was directed towards the plethora of competitors on the mainland. They can get things done quickly. They can cut corners that US companies just can't cut. It's especially critical that these types of things don't leak to them. As I showed above they're completely shameless. They're nimble, they're Chinese, and they're likely cheaper. They could be a problem. Now as soon as someone actually walks into Disneyland they'll know the difference. All the same they could damage the brand.

I am not saying that Disney never will embark on that ad campaign. They'll just do it when the time is right.

Because this is a big project. If Disney can get something down, they'll do it. Just like a plethora of different companies.

 

[rteetz]

You're completely missing the critical time period Universal, Six Flags, and Dream Works are in. The decisions they're making right now will determine how they're going to be competing for literally decades. Unlike software or movies where an update or new new movie will be on the way soon, their choices are locked into steel and concrete clsteve. The stakes are immeasurably higher.

I'm not saying by any means that they're going to swoop in and open a new park before Disney. That defies the laws of Chinese construction timetables. What I am saying is the roster of rides and attractions will tip Disney's competitors off to what they're going to be up against. That means they can adapt the offerings into the most potent weapon to fight Disney. If you don't think their competitors will change focus, design, and even increase budget depending on how Shanghai Disney performs; then you're mistaken.

Every month that Disney doesn't reveal plans, means that it's another month of Disney's competitors going on with construction not knowing what Disney is up to. The farther they go means that it's harder to change plans. That's inherently better for Disney.

The opportunistic robbers was directed towards the plethora of competitors on the mainland. They can get things done quickly. They can cut corners that US companies just can't cut. It's especially critical that these types of things don't leak to them. As I showed above they're completely shameless. They're nimble, they're Chinese, and they're likely cheaper. They could be a problem. Now as soon as someone actually walks into Disneyland they'll know the difference. All the same they could damage the brand.

I am not saying that Disney never will embark on that ad campaign. They'll just do it when the time is right.

Because this is a big project. If Disney can get something down, they'll do it. Just like a plethora of different companies.

Exactly when the time is right. That may be soon based on the negative press Iger has gotten the last couple weeks from that article. An announcement showing off Shanghai attractions would make that negative stuff fall back and people would forget about it. Just like the avatar announcement today.

 

[DDLand]

Exactly when the time is right. That may be soon based on the negative press Iger has gotten the last couple weeks from that article. An announcement showing off Shanghai attractions would make that negative stuff fall back and people would forget about it. Just like the avatar announcement today.

That's where I'm not so sure rteetz. Remember who this park is catering to. You and I both know it's not to the people on wdwmagic. Until we see a big US or Chinese media publication start complaining Disney is just fine. They're doing just fine.

Though I do have to point out that those Avatarland Photos have pretty much silenced the critics. (To some extent me included)

I think that we can trust them to do Shanghai right.

 

[rteetz]

That's where I'm not so sure rteetz. Remember who this park is catering to. You and I both know it's not to the people on wdwmagic. Until we see a big US or Chinese media publication start complaining Disney is just fine. They're doing just fine.

Though I do have to point out that those Avatarland Photos have pretty much silenced the critics. (To some extent me included)

I think that we can trust them to do Shanghai right.

I don't doubt they won't do it right but the question remains whether it will be a winner or not.

 

[clsteve]

Sorry, I have to agree with DDLand here, copies of Disney's attractions, or even the appearance of the same attractions can be built and built quickly. Disney doesn't have any of the legal safeguards it does here in the states for copying of IP stuff.

The question I have is...what will the admission price be and what is the average income of the guest they are expecting to attract there?

The next 2-3 years will be very interesting for an outside observer.

Yes, they definitely don't want to let any competitor know the secrets of a PoTC or a 7DMT one year before opening.....

 

[rteetz]

Yes, they definitely don't want to let any competitor know the secrets of a PoTC or a 7DMT one year before opening.....

Well in defense of that this POTC looks to be unlike any before it. But those aren't the only two clones coming to this park I'm positive there will be more. One thing that will be weird is not having a mainstreet but that goes along with the Chinese culture as they don't really understand the story to that.

 

[DDLand]

I don't doubt they won't do it right but the question remains whether it will be a winner or not.

See the problem is even if they release all the photos, and concept art in the world we'll still not know if it succeeds. People would just say it's going to be an empty park with great theming. Or they'll say it's a waste of money for a bomb. Or they'll say they rather would've seen the money spent in Orlando or Anaheim.

You and I know the only way to really know if it works is to open the thing.

 

[DDLand]

Well in defense of that this POTC looks to be unlike any before it.

Who knows. We may get the the full 7DMT too.

 

[clsteve]

You're completely missing the critical time period Universal, Six Flags, and Dream Works are in. The decisions they're making right now will determine how they're going to be competing for literally decades. Unlike software or movies where an update or new new movie will be on the way soon, their choices are locked into steel and concrete clsteve. The stakes are immeasurably higher.

I'm not saying by any means that they're going to swoop in and open a new park before Disney. That defies the laws of Chinese construction timetables. What I am saying is the roster of rides and attractions will tip Disney's competitors off to what they're going to be up against. That means they can adapt the offerings into the most potent weapon to fight Disney. If you don't think their competitors will change focus, design, and even increase budget depending on how Shanghai Disney performs; then you're mistaken.

Every month that Disney doesn't reveal plans, means that it's another month of Disney's competitors going on with construction not knowing what Disney is up to. The farther they go means that it's harder to change plans. That's inherently better for Disney.

The opportunistic robbers was directed towards the plethora of competitors on the mainland. They can get things done quickly. They can cut corners that US companies just can't cut. It's especially critical that these types of things don't leak to them. As I showed above they're completely shameless. They're nimble, they're Chinese, and they're likely cheaper. They could be a problem. Now as soon as someone actually walks into Disneyland they'll know the difference. All the same they could damage the brand.

I am not saying that Disney never will embark on that ad campaign. They'll just do it when the time is right.

Because this is a big project. If Disney can get something down, they'll do it. Just like a plethora of different companies.

Universal doesn't have to worry one iota about Disney's list of rides. They have cache in China. Just look at what their movies have done over there. Transformers being #1 or #2 in the box office last year or so.

Disney could give them the full plans, right now and it wouldn't matter. Since, if Disney is correct that they're opening in early 2016, SDL will have been open for 3 years before Comcast even breaks ground. Seems like plenty of time to re-assess whatever they wanted to....

 

[rteetz]

Who knows. We may get the the full 7DMT too.

No it's the same version MK has that's been proven by the wdwmagic guys already.

 

[rteetz]

See the problem is even if they release all the photos, and concept art in the world we'll still not know if it succeeds. People would just say it's going to be an empty park with great theming. Or they'll say it's a waste of money for a bomb. Or they'll say they rather would've seen the money spent in Orlando or Anaheim.

You and I know the only way to really know if it works is to open the thing.

And hopefully they will open it on time based on the new opening time frame.

 

[DDLand]

No it's the same version MK has that's been proven by the wdwmagic guys already.

Oh, I hadn't seen that yet. Tokyo is said to be getting full right?

 

[rteetz]

Universal doesn't have to worry one iota about Disney's list of rides. They have cache in China. Just look at what their movies have done over there. Transformers being #1 or #2 in the box office last year or so.

Disney could give them the full plans, right now and it wouldn't matter. Since, if Disney is correct that they're opening in early 2016, SDL will have been open for 3 years before Comcast even breaks ground. Seems like plenty of time to re-assess whatever they wanted to....

universal Beijing opens in 2019 so they would break ground several years before that.

 

[rteetz]

Oh, I hadn't seen that yet. Tokyo is said to be getting full right?

I don't believe it's confirmed for Tokyo

http://disneyandmore.blogspot.com/2014/10/more-details-about-tokyo-disneyland-new.html?m=1

 

[DDLand]

Universal doesn't have to worry one iota about Disney's list of rides. They have cache in China. Just look at what their movies have done over there. Transformers being #1 or #2 in the box office last year or so.

Disney could give them the full plans, right now and it wouldn't matter. Since, if Disney is correct that they're opening in early 2016, SDL will have been open for 3 years before Comcast even breaks ground. Seems like plenty of time to re-assess whatever they wanted to....

clsteve, you know that one IP doesn't make a theme park. That also doesn't negate the competitive risks that Disney poses.

Everyday they don't know is better. If they're spending time and money on something that will get cancelled after fully understanding Disney plans let them. They may have time to adapt, but they're developing something now that could cancelled or changed. This is in Disney's best interest.

Of course, you're also negating Dream Works, and Six Flags which are on track to open more quickly.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...w-theme-park-delayed-and-over-budget-but.aspx

(sorry, I had to throw in that piece somewhere)

@rteetz, it looks like that's in flux.
"Discussing a planned Beijing theme park, Burke said it would happen after 2020, meaning no capital plans are known yet."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/nbcuniversal-ceo-studio-roll-cable-777355


Then again they've already cleared the land so it's anyone's guess.

 

[rteetz]

clsteve, you know that one IP doesn't make a theme park. That also doesn't negate the competitive risks that Disney poses.

Everyday they don't know is better. If they're spending time and money on something that will get cancelled after fully understanding Disney plans let them. They may have time to adapt, but they're developing something now that could cancelled or changed. This is in Disney's best interest.

Of course, you're also negating Dream Works, and Six Flags which are on track to open more quickly.
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...w-theme-park-delayed-and-over-budget-but.aspx

(sorry, I had to throw in that piece somewhere)

@rteetz, it looks like that's in flux.
"Discussing a planned Beijing theme park, Burke said it would happen after 2020, meaning no capital plans are known yet."
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/nbcuniversal-ceo-studio-roll-cable-777355


Then again they've already cleared the land so it's anyone's guess.

Interesting that has changed because there was an announcement and concept art for it.

 

[DDLand]

I don't believe it's confirmed for Tokyo

http://disneyandmore.blogspot.com/2014/10/more-details-about-tokyo-disneyland-new.html?m=1

Man, I thought I'd read it was getting built for real somewhere. Whoops. I guess I dreamed it up.