Soarin

[adam.adbe]

The thing I question is the timing. With the new Frozen ride and A&E meet and greet being located in Epcot possibly by mid-year 2016, that may have been a better time to go with option 1 above which would be to cut the number of Soarin' FP+ in half and just use the new 3rd theater while converting theater's 1 and 2. I base this on the tier system currently in use at Epcot. The new Frozen ride and well as new A&E building will no doubt be tier 1, and since you are restricted in your tier 1 choices there would be a lot fewer Soarin' FP+ required ahead of time. Still not perfect, but at least Soarin' wouldn't be completely shut down.

This is totally what I would have expected. Closing Soarin' down without Frozen being on-line quite honestly would seem to cause issues with the current FastPass tiers.

Ignoring IllumiNations, as I suspect a lot of people will be quite grumpy if the only Tier 1 FP they can get for a day, locks their three fast pass allocation until park closing time, the other Tier 1s are Test Track, and LwtL. Their combined daily max for FP is about 21,000 riders. Assuming Disney don't just make those rides essentially FastPass only for six months, that's pretty low, even during the quieter months. By June time, it'd be a mess. Hollywood Studios is in a similar place of course, having a total FP allocation of around 23K for the two headliner Tier 1s, RnR, and TSMM, but attendance at that park is much lower than Epcot, and at least there are two more daytime attractions to burn a Tier 1 Fast Pass on early in the day.

Given that average park attendance was about 30K back in 2014, if this really is a six month deal, I can see not holding off until May, as June, July, and August would be FastPass madness, but even so, either Disney is going to have to play shenanigans with FP quotas, they're very confident that Easter visitors are going to want to watch IllumiNations, or they're willing to risk dropping attendance.

 

[rteetz]

This is totally what I would have expected. Closing Soarin' down without Frozen being on-line quite honestly would seem to cause issues with the current FastPass tiers.

Ignoring IllumiNations, as I suspect a lot of people will be quite grumpy if the only Tier 1 FP they can get for a day, locks their three fast pass allocation until park closing time, the other Tier 1s are Test Track, and LwtL. Their combined daily max for FP is about 21,000 riders. Assuming Disney don't just make those rides essentially FastPass only for six months, that's pretty low, even during the quieter months. By June time, it'd be a mess. Hollywood Studios is in a similar place of course, having a total FP allocation of around 23K for the two headliner Tier 1s, RnR, and TSMM, but attendance at that park is much lower than Epcot, and at least there are two more daytime attractions to burn a Tier 1 Fast Pass on early in the day.

Given that average park attendance was about 30K back in 2014, if this really is a six month deal, I can see not holding off until May, as June, July, and August would be FastPass madness, but even so, either Disney is going to have to play shenanigans with FP quotas, they're very confident that Easter visitors are going to want to watch IllumiNations, or they're willing to risk dropping attendance.

It's been said that once toy story opens at DHS we could possibly see the end of tiers. AK functions without them and has limited attractions.

 

[kapstar]

Personally, I am hopeful that they will not shut Soarin" down at all. It would be a big announcement if it were going to happen and I can't believe Orlando Theme Park Insider would bury it in a story like that.

 

[Tinkerdreams]

I'm doubtful also of a 6 month shutdown. Other than changing the film, maybe the screen and sound system (maybe), what are they going to do for those 6 months? Any real detail on this?

 

[DisneyDreamer ♥]

DHS come next year is going to be a construction zone.

OOOH RIGHT!! I forgot.. the new Star Wars and Toy Story lands right!?

 

[adam.adbe]

It's been said that once toy story opens at DHS we could possibly see the end of tiers. AK functions without them and has limited attractions.

I'd argue that AK has a better roster of attractions than HS. Safari, Expedition, and Dinosaur stack up well against ToT and RnR, with a much greater overall rider throughput. Also AK, being as it is Nahtazu, is more of an attraction in its own right. RoL is going to really help AK also since the extra few hours at night will increase total rider counts even as the gate (presumably) increases.

I can't help thinking that with two E-tickets and two companion attractions planned, if HS really starts packing them it, it's still going to need a couple of new attractions to give the park some breathing room (and I'm saying that without factoring the various closures seemingly planned for existing shows and extras).

As for Epcot, I ...

 

[kapstar]

I spoke with a business/travel reporter I know in my area. He is going to look into it.

He agrees that with Innoventions West and Soarin' both shuttered it really hurts how attractive Future World is to potential guests.

 

[rteetz]

Apparently Disney has been cross training CMs for other attractions while Soarin is closed. This still doesnt confirm length of closure tho but it seems a closure is happening for sure.

 

[boufa]

I am running down in Feb for a quick adult only 20th anniversary trip, and our plan was 4 days, 2 MK and 2 Epcot. But with Soarin possibly closing, I am planning on 2 MK, 1 Epcot and 1 DHS (I counted 9 attractions at DHS, enough to keep us busy). They are already cutting into attendance.

I am a HUGE fanboy, who is a tool for everything they shovel, and hate all the experts and complainers on the DIS... but time to turn into what I hate...
.. with DHS being torn up for 2 new lands, and AK still being torn up (though much less than it was), knock Soarin off the books for 6 months... It actually get to the point of crossing the line where I might reconsider a trip. Thankfully, I imagine Feb will still be safe for DHS, and we don't have time for AK on this trip.

 

[kapstar]

I agree with you 100% Boufa.

 

[atp]

One ride certainly doesn't, but (as I said in the full comment) about 1/2 of HS is shuttered. Test Track is a distant second to Soarin' as the main attraction at Epcot. When you add in a rehashed Captain EO, and Innovations West being shuttered it really impacts Epcot, outside of the World Showcase. And if there are even slight delays with "Frozen Ever After" in Norway, that won't be open either.

For the amount of coin I am putting up for Airlines and a weeks stay at the Poly having AK full up and running, MK short BTMRR, and HS and Epcot limping at half a park....it creates questions about value for $. The experience and time spent with my family is very important to me, which I why I may consider spending my vaca dollars elsewhere.

There have been a lot of closures at HS, with nothing to replace them at this point. Here is a quote from an article speculating about the now announced expansions, "For now the possibilities are endless, but as the bodies of all the closed attractions are quickly stacking up (Backlot Tour, Animation tour, American Idol, Legend of Captain Jack Sparrow, the big Hat, the Premier Theater, etc…) the park is going to have to announce something new before too long." Voyage of the Little Mermaid is going away also and there are rumors of Muppets 3D being closed as well. It's great that they are going to do a major expansion with 2-3 new Star Wars attractions and 2-3 new Pixar attractions, but that is 3-5 years off.

At Epcot, Innoventions West is shuttered except for the Chase Cardholders Meet n Greet. Some of the work is to prep for the Food and Wine Fest, but not all. Here is the link (they throw in at the end that Soarin' may close for 4-6 months, but I don't buy it).

http://www.orlandoparksnews.com/2015/09/epcot-update-living-with-land.html#more

Disney has been making some interesting decisions lately. I know a lot of attractions have been closed permanently and temporarily but never realized it was THAT many until I read the above posts.

I guess they messed up the maintenance timing somehow. Park attendance is very high lately, with fewer attractions, I can't imagine how it will be once it starts to get REALLY busy.

I'm not sure how much it cost to build Soarin, but I'm sure it's a lot less than Avatarland or Star Wars land. It took about one and a half years to build Soarin in Orlando. I think Disney waited too long to add something new. I think they should never close multiple rides without replacing them with anything else, specially since they keep having more and more guests each year.

Instead of closing Soarin soon, which will likely happen due to the current condition of the ride (the quality of the ride has deteriorated a lot in the past two years), they could have started building a similar ride elsewhere in EPCOT, without the need to close any attractions, by adding it to an existing country or adding another country. They could also have build something else or closed one of the most unpopular attractions to make into something better that would attract a lot of people. There are lots of options in EPCOT.

It seems that their focus right now is getting as many people into the parks as possible without a lot of concern about the quality of their experience.

As for cancelling a vacation because of a ride, to each their own. Yes, vacations are about spending time with family, but you can do that anywhere. A vacation to Disney is expensive and usually more stressful than most other vacation options so if someone's main priority is spending time with their family Disney is possibly not even a good option because a lot of your bonding will be done while you stand in line...for the rides, for the bus, for the restaurants, etc. Lines and more lines. Which can be worth it if you go to Disney for the rides, which I for one do, but not the ideal way to enjoy time with your family, IMO. Also, if I'm spending all the money required to go to Disney, I will want to get the best possible experience and for me that means whenever the parks are the least crowded and most or all rides that matter to me are open.

 

[Eoghann]

I guess they messed up the maintenance timing somehow. Park attendance is very high lately, with fewer attractions, I can't imagine how it will be once it starts to get REALLY busy.

There have been a lot of complaints for a while now about the condition of rides, particularly in the Magic Kingdom, but also elsewhere. I imagine it was a combination of cost cutting and reluctance to close popular rides.

It does seem that Disney have woken up to the problem but now they have to pay the piper and the only way to do the maintenance needed is to close the rides.

 

[atp]

There have been a lot of complaints for a while now about the condition of rides, particularly in the Magic Kingdom, but also elsewhere. I imagine it was a combination of cost cutting and reluctance to close popular rides.

It does seem that Disney have woken up to the problem but now they have to pay the piper and the only way to do the maintenance needed is to close the rides.

It makes sense to me. Though I do wonder why they want to cut costs when they are more popular than ever and likely profiting more than ever from ticket sales and their hotels and consequently food and souvenirs. I know they are building new lands which are going to cost a lot of money, but they gave gone many many years without adding anything major so they should have some money "saved up".

 

[Eoghann]

It makes sense to me. Though I do wonder why they want to cut costs when they are more popular than ever and likely profiting more than ever from ticket sales and their hotels and consequently food and souvenirs. I know they are building new lands which are going to cost a lot of money, but they gave gone many many years without adding anything major so they should have some money "saved up".

So I don't know the particulars for Disney of course but I can tell you how large publicly traded companies generally operate:

They are broken down into various sizes of operating unit and each unit is given a budget each year. They have to stay within budget. Each of the parks at WDW for example has a separate operations budget, while new rides an expansions come from a separate budget.

So at some point the accountants look at the budget proposals that each operating unit has submitted and give them less money than they asked for. Why? Because that increases their ROI and ROI matters because that is what drives stock prices. Just making lots of money isn't good enough you have to modestly exceed estimates (wildly exceeding estimates is also bad because it makes you look like you don't know what you're doing).

And it's all about stock prices. Because if the stock dips too radically people start wanting to kick out the board of directors. This will happen regardless of actual profitability for the company.

Long version short, publicly trading a company distorts the normal economic model.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I find it hard to believe that it will take 4-6 months to do the work required, so I won't believe it until/unless Disney announces it themselves.

 

[atp]

So I don't know the particulars for Disney of course but I can tell you how large publicly traded companies generally operate:

They are broken down into various sizes of operating unit and each unit is given a budget each year. They have to stay within budget. Each of the parks at WDW for example has a separate operations budget, while new rides an expansions come from a separate budget.

So at some point the accountants look at the budget proposals that each operating unit has submitted and give them less money than they asked for. Why? Because that increases their ROI and ROI matters because that is what drives stock prices. Just making lots of money isn't good enough you have to modestly exceed estimates (wildly exceeding estimates is also bad because it makes you look like you don't know what you're doing).

And it's all about stock prices. Because if the stock dips too radically people start wanting to kick out the board of directors. This will happen regardless of actual profitability for the company.

Long version short, publicly trading a company distorts the normal economic model.

Thank you for taking the time to explain that. I guess that explains everything, sadly. Things seem to be too centered around money currently, not just Disney, almost everything is and it's sad to me that Disney is also becoming like that. Sure they are a business, but for some reason I figured they would always try to stick to their values so to speak, unless they had no choice. I have to remember your explanation and remind myself that Disney is just a business like any other and their main priority is money, that will save me a lot of disappointment. Though I wonder how being perceived as extremely um, money oriented (in detriment of some other important things) will work for them since their fame was built on the fact that is is the happiest most magical place on earth with the best costumer service ever.

 

[kapstar]

For the record. If I were to reschedule our vacation, which I don't think I will, it would not be for "one ride" as was labeled earlier in this thread. My concerns are about the totality of closures, Soarin' just being the proverbial straw that broke the Camel's back.

I adore a Disney vacation and am really looking forward to our April trip. I am holding out hope that the plan will be to refurb Soarin' in stages and that at least one theater will remain open at all times.

I'm not looking for a rebate or any other accommodation from Disney if Soarin' is going to close, but if they know it and are not telling people who are booking Jan-June about the closure then they are not being honest.

 

[Eoghann]

Thank you for taking the time to explain that. I guess that explains everything, sadly. Things seem to be too centered around money currently, not just Disney, almost everything is and it's sad to me that Disney is also becoming like that. Sure they are a business, but for some reason I figured they would always try to stick to their values so to speak, unless they had no choice. I have to remember your explanation and remind myself that Disney is just a business like any other and their main priority is money, that will save me a lot of disappointment. Though I wonder how being perceived as extremely um, money oriented (in detriment of some other important things) will work for them since their fame was built on the fact that is is the happiest most magical place on earth with the best costumer service ever.

Disney's PR is exceptional. There aren't many other companies who have done such a good job of making people think they are "friends" rather than a company selling a service.

The closest I can think of is Apple who seem to have that same aura about them. However, Apple's products remain top quality, some of Disney's do not. So yes, there is a risk that eventually the PR will start to look at little less shiny.

 

[peg110]

Disney's PR is exceptional. There aren't many other companies who have done such a good job of making people think they are "friends" rather than a company selling a service.

The closest I can think of is Apple who seem to have that same aura about them. However, Apple's products remain top quality, some of Disney's do not. So yes, there is a risk that eventually the PR will start to look at little less shiny.

I agree with this. To add to it however, both Apple and WDW have a "Darker" side to. They go to great lengths to try and hide it, but it's there. I suppose that's true of most companies, but most don't hide it as well.

As examples, I will say that Apple makes a QUALITY product. To that end, they charge a QUALITY price too. The problem I have had with it, is that it not only is good and "Expensive" it forces you to use OTHER apple products as well. In many cases, maybe not as good. iTunes comes to mind. Why do I need iTunes to put music (that I already own) on my phone? Before anyone throws their arguments about this, I am an "AVID" Linux user. My laptop runs Linux. iTunes won't work on Linux. Thus I cannot use it for my iPhone/iPad.

The cable is non-standard. By this I mean if my cable breaks, I have to buy a "Special" cable. Ok, no worries there. DW, DD and I all had an iPhone. Upgraded once (or twice) so we have "Extra" cables. Oh wait, now here comes iPhone 5 and 6. Cable Change. Proprietary! Ugh.

Most other (non apple) phones will use the Micro USB. I have tons of them. They are cheap and reliable. Love em. Hate iPhone/iPad charge cables.

WDW in a round about was is similar. Quality Product, Quality Price, but they have the "Additions" that are WDW only. EMH forces (if you want it) you into going to a WDW Resort. Then the "Add-ons" of special seating for the parade, "Special Desert parties", "Special Attention" all for a "Special" fee.

Apple and WDW can both be like a "Drug" once in, it's hard to get away. I am recovering from Apple. (Now a very happy Android Phone user as is the entire family) but I am still addicted to Disney.

 

[atp]

I agree with this. To add to it however, both Apple and WDW have a "Darker" side to. They go to great lengths to try and hide it, but it's there. I suppose that's true of most companies, but most don't hide it as well.

As examples, I will say that Apple makes a QUALITY product. To that end, they charge a QUALITY price too. The problem I have had with it, is that it not only is good and "Expensive" it forces you to use OTHER apple products as well. In many cases, maybe not as good. iTunes comes to mind. Why do I need iTunes to put music (that I already own) on my phone? Before anyone throws their arguments about this, I am an "AVID" Linux user. My laptop runs Linux. iTunes won't work on Linux. Thus I cannot use it for my iPhone/iPad.

The cable is non-standard. By this I mean if my cable breaks, I have to buy a "Special" cable. Ok, no worries there. DW, DD and I all had an iPhone. Upgraded once (or twice) so we have "Extra" cables. Oh wait, now here comes iPhone 5 and 6. Cable Change. Proprietary! Ugh.

Most other (non apple) phones will use the Micro USB. I have tons of them. They are cheap and reliable. Love em. Hate iPhone/iPad charge cables.

WDW in a round about was is similar. Quality Product, Quality Price, but they have the "Additions" that are WDW only. EMH forces (if you want it) you into going to a WDW Resort. Then the "Add-ons" of special seating for the parade, "Special Desert parties", "Special Attention" all for a "Special" fee.

Apple and WDW can both be like a "Drug" once in, it's hard to get away. I am recovering from Apple. (Now a very happy Android Phone user as is the entire family) but I am still addicted to Disney.

That's a great analogy. I was never "addicted" to Apple because I never really liked their products much, still don't. I prefer Android for phones and just about anything else for computers. But I agree with everything you said. For me, Disney has always been an addiction, I have loved Disney ever since I was a child. Right now I'm still addicted, but I'm feeling like that person in a bad relationship. You can see that maybe it would be best to leave, it might not be worth your time (and money) anymore, but you just like the other person too much and keep giving them another chance.

We'll see what happens. I love and will always love the parks, the attractions, the look and feel of everything. And also the Cast Members that still have "the magic" in them, the Disney way. But I can't say the same for the management and the way the parks are being run and some of the guests that Disney attracts. If that makes sense.