Soarin stand by queue

[nroush313]

Now this is making far less sense.

A CM getting in trouble for having more than 10 FPs? I don't even know what that means.

Are you talking about them taking them from guests, and then not throwing them away fast enough? That's just foolish and has nothing to do with enforcement of ratios.

Not saying it isn't true, but it certainly wouldn't fix any problem.

No, the distribution CM standing next to a machine, unlocking it, and printing FP one after the other and then throwing them away. Thus by doing this lowering the amount of FP guests can get, moving the return time forward, and then making FP returns less. So, if a manager sees this or you have more than 10 printed FPs on you (getting distracted by a guest asking a question or such, you get in trouble. So, if the CM are tired of getting yelled at by guests who see how many FP returns are going by printing out the FP and then trashing them would certainly help the ratio later in the day.

 

[atp]

Assume, for illustration purposes, 1,000 FP's are distributed for each 1 hour period. Assume that ride capacity is 2,000 per hour. Assume average standby wait time is 30 minutes.

If half of the people with return times during the 12 o'clock hour decide to eat lunch instead, and ride during the 2 o'clock hour, there are now 1,500 FP riders during 2 o'clock hour. The effect of the 500 reduction during the 12 o'clock has smoothed, since the standby line essentially emptied out, and more standby riders have jumped in upon seeing the low wait time (some perhaps exiting FP riders who jumped back for a reride.)

How can you say that riders entering the standby line would not be impacted by having 50% more FP riders during a given interval than Disney allocated?

You may say my numbers are not realistic, which may be the case, but I also say "just one family unit" is unrealistic. It's like saying, "Just one vote can't make a difference." I think surges do occur, after meal periods and events such as parades.

You do have a point about meal times/parades/etc. When I read that I was curious and decided to check what time I got there. I took a picture shortly before I got in line and it was 11:43am. I waited about 2 hours, maybe a little more and it started getting really bad towards the end...12:30-1:30, when people would be done lunching and more likely to be using the FPs late.

If that was the reason though, it's fine by me. I don't think late FPs are THAT big of a deal, obviously it's the stand by line who gets the short end of the stick and most people against late FPs seem to refuse to use the stand by line anyway. Whatever reason it was, it's fine. I just wish the wait time was reported correctly or over reported, that way I wouldn't even get in line.

 

[doconeill]

Assume, for illustration purposes, 1,000 FP's are distributed for each 1 hour period. Assume that ride capacity is 2,000 per hour. Assume average standby wait time is 30 minutes.

If half of the people with return times during the 12 o'clock hour decide to eat lunch instead, and ride during the 2 o'clock hour, there are now 1,500 FP riders during 2 o'clock hour. The effect of the 500 reduction during the 12 o'clock has smoothed, since the standby line essentially emptied out, and more standby riders have jumped in upon seeing the low wait time (some perhaps exiting FP riders who jumped back for a reride.)

How can you say that riders entering the standby line would not be impacted by having 50% more FP riders during a given interval than Disney allocated?

You may say my numbers are not realistic, which may be the case, but I also say "just one family unit" is unrealistic. It's like saying, "Just one vote can't make a difference." I think surges do occur, after meal periods and events such as parades.

I didn't ever say "during a given interval". I'm talking about overall.

In you case, the people in the standby line between 12-2 got to ride 500 "people" sooner than if the 500 people who had the noon FPs showed up. The people who get in the standby line at 2pm after the late FP users showed up ride at exactly the same time as they would had the 500 late FP users showed up at noon, 12:30pm, 1pm, or 2pm.

I don't know if I can get this to illustrate properly. Let's say the "*" and digits represent 200 standby users, and the "F" represents 200 FP users. We're using your numbers, and just for illustration purposes, all FP users are taken before standby users, and FPs are given out with windows on the hour:



12--------1---------2---------3
FFFFF1****FFFFF2****FFFFF3***4


Now in the above, every group of FP users shows up at the beginning of the window. So the first group of 200 in the standby line (labeled #1) in the noon group rides at roughly 12:30, #2 at 1:30, etc. #4 rides just before 3pm.

Now, let's say that 3 groups of the FP users at noon instead show up at 2pm:


12--------1---------2---------3
FF1****2**FFFFF**3**FFFFFFFF*4

OK, look how it changed. Standby group #1 got to ride a 18 minutes earlier: 12:12. As did group #2. Group #3 moved up a TON: they gained 48 minutes, and ride at 1:42 instead of 2:30.

The key is group #4. They still ride just before 3:00.

What DOES happen is group #4 sees the line stagnate longer, and the posted "wait" time (which remember, is not what you are truly going to wait, but what someone who most recently got up to the front of the line waited) will likely have been shorter than their true wait time. But that happens for lots of other reasons as well.

Now, as a side discussion - how is showing up at 2pm any different than showing up at 12:59pm? 12:59pm is within their window, but this "surge" has the same actual affect on the people you claim are being harmed - the people getting in the standby line when they show up. It just happens earlier. The only way to not have any effect is for Disney to say that if you don't show up at a very specific time (no window), sorry, too bad - no exceptions.

Now, these so-called "surges" are going to happen throughout the day. There isn't a giant conspiracy by a large percentage of guests to collect FPs all day and then show up all at once at the end of the day. Most people want to ride sooner rather than later.

Disney has studied this many times over many years. If it was truly a problem, they'd have changed it.

 

[doconeill]

You do have a point about meal times/parades/etc. When I read that I was curious and decided to check what time I got there. I took a picture shortly before I got in line and it was 11:43am. I waited about 2 hours, maybe a little more and it started getting really bad towards the end...12:30-1:30, when people would be done lunching and more likely to be using the FPs late.

If that was the reason though, it's fine by me. I don't think late FPs are THAT big of a deal, obviously it's the stand by line who gets the short end of the stick and most people against late FPs seem to refuse to use the stand by line anyway. Whatever reason it was, it's fine. I just wish the wait time was reported correctly or over reported, that way I wouldn't even get in line.

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are you talking about the length of the standby line? The standby line would naturally get longer after lunch/parades - as everyone that was eating/watching the parade flocks to the attractions afterwards, Fastpasses or not. You seem to be making an assumption that long lines are strictly due to late FPs - they are not.

 

[doconeill]

No, the distribution CM standing next to a machine, unlocking it, and printing FP one after the other and then throwing them away. Thus by doing this lowering the amount of FP guests can get, moving the return time forward, and then making FP returns less. So, if a manager sees this or you have more than 10 printed FPs on you (getting distracted by a guest asking a question or such, you get in trouble. So, if the CM are tired of getting yelled at by guests who see how many FP returns are going by printing out the FP and then trashing them would certainly help the ratio later in the day.

CMs shouldn't be doing this at all unless directed by the attraction manager, and then I think they would provide an electronic means of doing so.

 

[nroush313]

CMs shouldn't be doing this at all unless directed by the attraction manager, and then I think they would provide an electronic means of doing so.

Is this not what I said? CMs getting in trouble for having excess FPs on them. This is just a way for the CM to get rid of the FPs and thus lowering the high amount already given out and then lowering the ratio later.

 

[atp]

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Are you talking about the length of the standby line? The standby line would naturally get longer after lunch/parades - as everyone that was eating/watching the parade flocks to the attractions afterwards, Fastpasses or not. You seem to be making an assumption that long lines are strictly due to late FPs - they are not.

No, no...I'm just speculating possible reasons as to why things happened the way they did.

I'm talking about the fact that from around 12:30 to nearly 2pm, which is when I was finally able to ride, the line was barely moving. And I was just saying it was possible that many people with FPs for right before noon or during lunch time, would have finished their lunches sometime between 12:30-1:30 and therefore there would be a surge when that happened. They would prioritize the FPs, thus making the wait longer for stand by temporarily.

I'm not saying this happened for sure, just that it could happen. I for one have lunch very late, maybe a lot of people do too, there's no way of knowing. I agree with you that late FPs are no big deal, in the end it's not a huge difference.

I just think that a surge like that is not impossible, and MIGHT be what happened that day. It certainly would explain why the wait got really bad towards the end, when people who like to have lunch at the "correct" time, would be done eating.

 

[doconeill]

Is this not what I said? CMs getting in trouble for having excess FPs on them. This is just a way for the CM to get rid of the FPs and thus lowering the high amount already given out and then lowering the ratio later.

Right, I'm just surprised a CM would take it upon themselves to do that. The attraction manager should make that call.

 

[nroush313]

Right, I'm just surprised a CM would take it upon themselves to do that. The attraction manager should make that call.

Well I assume after seeing them getting screamed at and water bottles and flick cards thrown at them and having a security guard at the merge position they would take it into their own hands at one point.

 

[joelkfla]

I didn't ever say "during a given interval". I'm talking about overall.




12--------1---------2---------3
FFFFF1****FFFFF2****FFFFF3***4


Now in the above, every group of FP users shows up at the beginning of the window. So the first group of 200 in the standby line (labeled #1) in the noon group rides at roughly 12:30, #2 at 1:30, etc. #4 rides just before 3pm.

Now, let's say that 3 groups of the FP users at noon instead show up at 2pm:


12--------1---------2---------3
FF1****2**FFFFF**3**FFFFFFFF*4

OK, look how it changed. Standby group #1 got to ride a 18 minutes earlier: 12:12. As did group #2. Group #3 moved up a TON: they gained 48 minutes, and ride at 1:42 instead of 2:30.

The key is group #4. They still ride just before 3:00.

Nice job on the graphs. I won't try to replicate them, as it's late & I'm getting sleepy.

I understand and agree with your point that the overall thruput is unchanged, and over the long term, the number of FP & Standby riders will be substantially unchanged.

However, you overlooked the assumption in my scenario that standby wait time is 30 minutes. Therefore, group 3 in your model is riding before they arrive! In reality, either the attraction would be running below capacity, or, more likely, additional standby riders (lured by the low posted wait time) fill the void. So ... additional asterisks are added before group 3, who, arriving at 2 p.m., now have to wait 15 minutes longer to ride at 2:45 instead of 2:30. Group 4 is still arriving at 3 p.m., and now must wait for group 3 to finish, so they are also waiting 15 minutes longer.

Eventually the delay will smooth itself out, as potential standbys decide not to ride when they see the extended wait. But my point is that late entering FP's can indeed affect the actual wait time for standbys entering around the same time, or shortly thereafter.

 

[seashoreCM]

No, the distribution CM standing next to a machine, unlocking it, and printing FP one after the other and then throwing them away.

Waste of paper.

I never thought that a CM would have the time or the nerve to do that.

Although it may be useful to print a few in advance and put them in a pocket to hand to guests who have problems with the machines, which would be a little faster than unlocking the machine and printing them on the spot.

Perhaps another useful bit of imagineering would be digital readouts at intervals along the standby line with continually changing "wait time from this point" displays. So if a deluge of people arrive with fastpasses or if a part of the ride (one theater for Soarin') goes out of service, these signs may change suddenly and people in line could decide whether to give up.

 

[cymbaldiva]

I've always wondered why Disney bothers to print an expiration time on fastpasses if it's something that they don't bother to enforce...

 

[Robo]

But my point is that late entering FP's can indeed affect the actual wait time for standbys entering around the same time, or shortly thereafter.

So could a big group of random guests (say, exiting from Capt. EO) walking into the
standby queue 2 minutes before you arrive.

WDW rides attract guests in large numbers.
And, sometimes a large gaggle of guests will get there before you do.

 

[aubriee]

Waste of paper.

I never thought that a CM would have the time or the nerve to do that.

Although it may be useful to print a few in advance and put them in a pocket to hand to guests who have problems with the machines, which would be a little faster than unlocking the machine and printing them on the spot.

I think most CMs do this. I know this past Dec I made the mad rush to TSM, grabbed a fast pass, then rode it standby. When I got off, the line still wasn't that bad, so I got in the standby line to ride it again. Just before you get to Mr Potato Head the ride broke down and after awhile they told us all to leave. I went to ride RnR in the single rider line and then since that I was all I was interested in, went back to TSM. The ride still wasn't fixed, so I decided to just stay there, so I'd be first in line when they did open. I talked to the CM standing there for awhile and she finally reached in her pocket and handed me two fast passes with the current time for a window, and told me to go do something else if I wanted. I laughed, told her I already had a fast pass, and didn't really want to do anything else at DS and didn't mind waiting. She thanked me for being honest about my fastpass and asked me if I wanted the other two anyway, since I like the ride so much. In less than five minutes the ride was finally fixed and I walked right on using the standby line again. I then used my three fast passes to ride three more times in a row. My arm was sore, but I got to ride TSM five times before lunch that day, thanks to the CM having fast passes in her pocket.

 

[TisBit]

There are a lot of factors that have been pointed out and even if the there was a ride stoppage earlier that caused fastpass people to have to come back at a later time. As Robo and others mentioned, going from 80 minutes to 120 minutes is not hard to do with a surge of people (usually the park will surge around lunchtime, hence why many people do early EMH's and leave around lunchtime).

Right after you got in line, one of the red cards to track the waits might have been scanned on the other end and changed the time to 120 minutes at the front, etc. While fastpasses will cause the standby to stop or slow down for a long period, it is more annoying to have a fastpass and suddenly be stuck in a 30 minute wait for the ride...it defeats the purpose of the fastpass.

 

[seashoreCM]

There is a real rule that if the ride is closed or there is a humongous crowd in the fastpass lanes when you come back to use your fastpass then your fastpass is good anytime later that day.

 

[doconeill]

Nice job on the graphs. I won't try to replicate them, as it's late & I'm getting sleepy.

I understand and agree with your point that the overall thruput is unchanged, and over the long term, the number of FP & Standby riders will be substantially unchanged.

However, you overlooked the assumption in my scenario that standby wait time is 30 minutes. Therefore, group 3 in your model is riding before they arrive! In reality, either the attraction would be running below capacity, or, more likely, additional standby riders (lured by the low posted wait time) fill the void. So ... additional asterisks are added before group 3, who, arriving at 2 p.m., now have to wait 15 minutes longer to ride at 2:45 instead of 2:30. Group 4 is still arriving at 3 p.m., and now must wait for group 3 to finish, so they are also waiting 15 minutes longer.

Eventually the delay will smooth itself out, as potential standbys decide not to ride when they see the extended wait. But my point is that late entering FP's can indeed affect the actual wait time for standbys entering around the same time, or shortly thereafter.

If the standby wait time is a constant 30 minutes, then very little of the argument points matter. 30 minutes isn't a significant wait, and is unlikely at a FP attraction on the typical day - and ESPECIALLY at Soarin' - except in the morning before FPs will be returning anyways. So yes, in those cases the effect is more pronounced, but it is an unlikely scenario. It's also an artifact of the chosen numbers and window periods. In reality, things are more spread out.

 

[doconeill]

Waste of paper.

I never thought that a CM would have the time or the nerve to do that.

Although it may be useful to print a few in advance and put them in a pocket to hand to guests who have problems with the machines, which would be a little faster than unlocking the machine and printing them on the spot.

The used to keep a pocket full of Attraction Re-Entry passes for the purpose. They seem to have opted to use actual FPs more recently, since they can print them out as needed. But they may be "used" FPs - ones that have already been turned in instead of printed explicitly for it (gotten a few that way - again, since they can be used any time later that day, it's not a problem. Otherwise they woudn't give them out.

Perhaps another useful bit of imagineering would be digital readouts at intervals along the standby line with continually changing "wait time from this point" displays. So if a deluge of people arrive with fastpasses or if a part of the ride (one theater for Soarin') goes out of service, these signs may change suddenly and people in line could decide whether to give up.

I posted some time back that with current technology they could track the card's progress through the line. Then with a little math, they can determine how fast the line is flowing, etc. That would allow them faster and more accurate timing. Of course, it would cost money.

I've always wondered why Disney bothers to print an expiration time on fastpasses if it's something that they don't bother to enforce...

Go back a couple pages...we already addressed that.

While fastpasses will cause the standby to stop or slow down for a long period, it is more annoying to have a fastpass and suddenly be stuck in a 30 minute wait for the ride...it defeats the purpose of the fastpass.

That can happen in normal circumstances as well, with no late FP use. Like when a large tour group arrives and uses their FPs well within their window...

There is a real rule that if the ride is closed or there is a humongous crowd in the fastpass lanes when you come back to use your fastpass then your fastpass is good anytime later that day.

Well, as far as we've been told there is no specific rule in that case...it's just an application of the general rule.

Note about the reports of the CMs that refuse late FPs - IIRC several of the reports WERE cases of ride breakdown, and the CMs didn't care. Even if the above was a specific rule, it shows that the CM is not familiar with the rules.