So who has guesses as to how direct sales will go over the next few months

[bookwormde]

So who has guesses as to how direct sales will go over the next few months

March should be out in a couple of weeks

Here is some history and my guesses

Average per month has been 175K over the last decade, low 93,295 Dec 2015

March is typically +5% April +20% May +5% June +10% July +10 Aug 5%

Guesses assume no additional incentives or price reductions also assumes partial reopening in June and full by July




..................AKV .BCV .BLT .BRV .BWV .CCV .HHI .OKW POLY .....RVA . ...SSR ...VB . VGF ... TOT

1/20act 4251 1541 3987 175 2051 6318 1300 5252 1685 181289 13599 975 1767 224460

2/20act 4122 760 3199 271 2217 4305 670 5570 1780 139205 10232 425 2276 175022

3/20est 3000 500 2500 200 1800 3200 460 4200 1400 120000 8000 360 1800 147420

3/20act 3919 1700 3201 260 1735 8037 .N/A 5023 2187 153416 8816 N/A 1833 190127

4/20est 2000 300 1800 150 1500 3000 320 3200 1000 70000 5000 240 1500 90010

5/20est 1600 200 1500 100 1200 2500 260 2800 800 40000 4000 200 1400 56560

6/20est 2000 300 1800 160 1500 3000 320 3200 1000 60000 5200 240 1500 80220

7/20est 3000 500 2500 200 1800 3200 500 4200 1200 100000 8000 360 1800 127260

8/20est 3200 500 2500 200 1800 3500 500 4500 1200 120000 8000 400 2000 158300

 

[SL6827]

South. I think you might see an uptick in resales. Those who have been holding out to buy resale at a good price might scoop up some great deals. And with Disney probably putting Reflections on the back burner for a while there will only be one "DVC-2" resort out there. And if you are only going to be locked out of just one resort, why not buy resale?

 

[E2ME2]

So who has guesses as to how direct sales will go over the next few months

SIDEWAYS !?
Still not seeing significant drops in price, nor a large increase in new listings. I think many sellers sold during the typical heavy months of Dec-Feb., before another year of MFs were due. If we miraculously turn the corner on COVID-19 (breakthrough vaccine, or treatment approval on drugs), we may not see a huge dip, or it may be very short-lived.
Fingers crossed for the miraculous
ET

 

[Heather07438]

APR MAY and JUNE won't total 200k direct. JULY & AUG not much better.

With financial uncertainty looming people are less likely to spend on larger purchases.
Without physical visits, less ability to sell.
Questions about what the park experience will include/exclude in the short term.
People prepared to buy now will consider waiting to see if better incentives are offered.
It's unlikely prices will be increasing. Waiting doesn't hold much risk.
Could we see $150pp Direct Riviera for 200 points? Yes.

Slightly offset by people wanting to support the brand and their agent.
And the people who want to look to the bright side of the future and enjoy making that purchase today.

I feel for Disney. The hits are especially hard for their company and on a massive scale.

It'll take longer for resale to dip down but it will get there too.
WDW packages will compete with potential DVC buyers; why buy when there are great resort deals.
There will be more people needing to sell than people wanting to buy. The difference accumulates monthly.
Maybe by next fall we start seeing contracts 30% lower than their height?
I think ROFR will not be practiced on contracts less than 25% down.

Pure guessing on my part. It depends what happens over April & May. If we get good news, maybe it won't dip as much. How well we are able to control and treat will affect the outlook. Hope for all of our sake it goes sideways

 

[ELMC]

Right now the Disney website is not accepting reservations prior to June 1. So I think it's safe to infer that means that there is a zero percent chance they open beforehand. I also don't think it's likely they open on June 1. So to answer your question, I think sales are going to be close to zero for April, May, and June. For the most part, people need to be onsite if they're going to buy. I don't think guests are setting foot on Disney property until July 1 at least.

 

[LAX]

Right now the Disney website is not accepting reservations prior to June 1. So I think it's safe to infer that means that there is a zero percent chance they open beforehand. I also don't think it's likely they open on June 1. So to answer your question, I think sales are going to be close to zero for April, May, and June. For the most part, people need to be onsite if they're going to buy. I don't think guests are setting foot on Disney property until July 1 at least.

Even then, those that end up setting a foot on Disney property will be the ones that manage to keep their jobs/businesses afloat, which will be significantly less (this is not even accounting for those that still have discretionary income to purchase DVC). Hence, I can't see how direct sale can go in any direction but down in the near future, no matter how lucrative the discount DVC ends up offering, IMHO.

LAX

 

[ELMC]

Even then, those that end up setting a foot on Disney property will be the ones that manage to keep their jobs/businesses afloat, which will be significantly less (this is not even accounting for those that still have discretionary income to purchase DVC). Hence, I can't see how direct sale can go in any direction but down in the near future, no matter how lucrative the discount DVC ends up offering, IMHO.

LAX

Agreed. I ended my speculation with the date that I thought the parks and resorts would reopen but I agree that sales will likely be down significantly from than before all of this.

 

[DougEMG]

Direct sales will be close to zero till the parks open again. Then it will probably take months before they are back to normal levels.

Disney needs to make up for all the revenue it is currently losing. If Disney raises hotel prices to make up for the lost revenue, then expect there to still be a lot of interest in owning DVC. Currently I don't think Disney is offering any new discounts to people, other than the Free Dining Discount to people affected by COVID-19, so they are probably hoping that with pent up demand that the crowds will be back to normal by the fall.

 

[bookwormde]

For the 4th quarter of 19 the net profit from DVC was about 70M out of 789M total for Disney or 9%. Loosing all of that would be a significant hit

 

[sethschroeder]

If they care they can easily drive sales through incentives, discounts, point requirements for direct benefits and changes to resale policies.

 

[davish562]

If they care they can easily drive sales through incentives, discounts, point requirements for direct benefits and changes to resale policies.

What kind of changes could you see for resale policies?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Reports seem to be that the sales center is closed - like nobody is answering phones and selling. If correct then sales aren't even going to be close to the estimates that have been listed. Even if they are open I'm under the impression that the majority of sales at the new resorts are generated from park visitors and with the parks being closed that would cut the sales by more than 1/2.

 

[Cyberc1978]

So who has guesses as to how direct sales will go over the next few months

March should be out in a couple of weeks

Here is some history and my guesses

Average per month has been 175K over the last decade, low 93,295 Dec 2015

March is typically +5% April +20% May +5% June +10% July +10 Aug 5%

Guesses assume no additional incentives or price reductions also assumes partial reopening in June and full by July





AKV BCV BLT BRV BWV CCV HHJ OKW POLY RVA SSR VB VGF TOT

1/20act 4251 1541 3987 175 2051 6318 1300 5252 1685 181289 13599 975 1767 224460

2/20act 4122 760 3199 271 2217 4305 670 5570 1780 139205 10232 425 2276 175022

3/20est 3000 500 2500 200 1800 3200 460 4200 1400 120000 8000 360 1800 147420

4/20est 2000 300 1800 150 1500 3000 320 3200 1000 70000 5000 240 1500 90010

5/20est 1600 200 1500 100 1200 2500 260 2800 800 40000 4000 200 1400 56560

6/20est 2000 300 1800 160 1500 3000 320 3200 1000 60000 5200 240 1500 80220

7/20est 3000 500 2500 200 1800 3200 500 4200 1200 100000 8000 360 1800 127260

8/20est 3200 500 2500 200 1800 3500 500 4500 1200 120000 8000 400 2000 158300

What does your numbers mean and how to understand them?

 

[bookwormde]

Reports seem to be that the sales center is closed - like nobody is answering phones and selling. If correct then sales aren't even going to be close to the estimates that have been listed. Even if they are open I'm under the impression that the majority of sales at the new resorts are generated from park visitors and with the parks being closed that would cut the sales by more than 1/2.

If they have shut down DVC sales then yes the sales would drop to zero very quickly, my numbers were based on sales effort continuing, but essentially working through prior leads.

 

[bookwormde]

What does your numbers mean and how to understand them?

The numbers were intended to just guess at a baseline to compare actuals against.

The sales environment will, to the extent we understand it, will certainly change as we see how DVD adapts

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Right now the Disney website is not accepting reservations prior to June 1. So I think it's safe to infer that means that there is a zero percent chance they open beforehand. I also don't think it's likely they open on June 1. So to answer your question, I think sales are going to be close to zero for April, May, and June. For the most part, people need to be onsite if they're going to buy. I don't think guests are setting foot on Disney property until July 1 at least.

I think if people want a realistic expectation of when the parks will open they need to watch what Shanghai is doing and Disneyland Paris. Shanghai has been closed since January 24th. With China's numbers down they will be the first to open most likely out of all the Disney Parks. I Honestly think the earliest the Parks will open in the US is July August maybe longer and this is from someone with a July trip.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Reports seem to be that the sales center is closed - like nobody is answering phones and selling. If correct then sales aren't even going to be close to the estimates that have been listed. Even if they are open I'm under the impression that the majority of sales at the new resorts are generated from park visitors and with the parks being closed that would cut the sales by more than 1/2.

we received an automatic reply from our agent that their offices have been closed. I think the DVC offices closed when Disney World closed so they've been closed for 2 weeks. They are probably trying to plan on how to do telesales with their agents from home. They must figure that out before they can even come out with discounts.

 

[Cyberc1978]

The numbers were intended to just guess at a baseline to compare actuals against.

The sales environment will, to the extent we understand it, will certainly change as we see how DVD adapts

Thanks but how do I read them?

 

[bookwormde]

Rows are by Month/Year

Columns are in order of resorts on the top row

act is actual

est is estimated/guess

 

[TraderSamWDW]

For the 4th quarter of 19 the net profit from DVC was about 70M out of 789M total for Disney or 9%. Loosing all of that would be a significant hit

not compared to the cash hemorrhaging losses they have now!


If they exercise any ROFR (which I doubt they will) sales could be negative!