So who has guesses as to how direct sales will go over the next few months

[ELMC]

I think if people want a realistic expectation of when the parks will open they need to watch what Shanghai is doing and Disneyland Paris. Shanghai has been closed since January 24th. With China's numbers down they will be the first to open most likely out of all the Disney Parks. I Honestly think the earliest the Parks will open in the US is July August maybe longer and this is from someone with a July trip.

I think you're right about the parks opening later than we think. And even if they are open, not 100% of people will want to go. I have an October trip that I am not convinced I am taking, even if the parks are open. We shall see.

 

[bookwormde]

Actuals are in for the WDW sales for March and are below and updated on the staring post

................ AKV .BCV .BLT BRV .BWV .CCV .HHI .OKW POLY ....RVA .....SSR .. VB . VGF .... TOT

3/20act 3919 1700 3201 260 1735 8037 .N/A 5023 2187 153416 8816 N/A 1833 190127


March appears to have been on a strong track before the closing, though how much lag between buyer singing and recording are a variable. I think we will have a better idea after April if the reports that sales are essentially shut down now are true

 

[poofyo101]

Actuals are in for the WDW sales for March and are below and updated on the staring post

................ AKV .BCV .BLT BRV .BWV .CCV .HHI .OKW POLY ....RVA .....SSR .. VB . VGF .... TOT

3/20act 3919 1700 3201 260 1735 8037 .N/A 5023 2187 153416 8816 N/A 1833 190127


March appears to have been on a strong track before the closing, though how much lag between buyer singing and recording are a variable. I think we will have a better idea after April if the reports that sales are essentially shut down now are true

I don't think this is march. I think march sales are based upon feb if I remember correctly.

 

[bookwormde]

I don't think this is march. I think march sales are based upon feb if I remember correctly.

it does not match Feb and was reported as filing dates of 3/1 to 3/31

 

[poofyo101]

it does not match Feb and was reported as filing dates of 3/1 to 3/31

Maybe I am confused but I was under the impression that the sales thread was always the sales month prior.

From the other thread.

AKNOTTS66 said:
February sales numbers should be interesting. January numbers would represent December sales right? That would be the first real month of sales data with the resort actually being open if thats how numbers are reported.

Yes, the January numbers roughly coincide with December buys.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[E2ME2]

not compared to the cash hemorrhaging losses they have now!


If they exercise any ROFR (which I doubt they will) sales could be negative!

I saw some data on ROFR that looked like DVC exercised ROFR more in March than in Jan & Feb., and the $PPP they bought back at was higher for several resorts.

 

[bookwormde]

Maybe I am confused but I was under the impression that the sales thread was always the sales month prior.

From the other thread.


Yes, the January numbers roughly coincide with December buys.

There is a lag form signing/paying to recording, but as best we can figure it about 2 weeks , so yes direct sales signed in the last 2 weeks of Feb would likely be recorded in March. signings from the first half of March are likely recorded in the second half March

While I do not have a good sense of how long there is likely a difference between cash purchases and those that are financed

Does anyone have any data on what percent of direct sales are financed?

Next months data should help answer this question, if it is 2/3 of normal then 1 month is correct if more like 1/4 to 1/3 then the 2 week time frame is the norm

 

[Matty B13]

I saw some data on ROFR that looked like DVC exercised ROFR more in March than in Jan & Feb., and the $PPP they bought back at was higher for several resorts.

This pattern of ROFR is pretty typical at the beginning of most years, DVC tends to ROFR less as the year goes on. Usually in the Fall ROFR become less typical.

 

[E2ME2]

This pattern of ROFR is pretty typical at the beginning of most years, DVC tends to ROFR less as the year goes on. Usually in the Fall ROFR become less typical.

I had read and that, and observed that pattern in micro-cosm (only over a couple years). I also had read & observed that there is usually a flurry of activity in Dec/Jan for sellers who would like to sell before paying another years worth of MFs. There was a flood of SSR contracts with my use year in January, at a really good price, and they went very fast. Fortunately I was able to grab one as the first bidder. The impact of the current social/economic phenomenon will be interesting to track.

 

[Sandisw]

I had read and that, and observed that pattern in micro-cosm (only over a couple years). I also had read & observed that there is usually a flurry of activity in Dec/Jan for sellers who would like to sell before paying another years worth of MFs. There was a flood of SSR contracts with my use year in January, at a really good price, and they went very fast. Fortunately I was able to grab one as the first bidder. The impact of the current social/economic phenomenon will be interesting to track.

What I wonder is if that data...which comes from only one resale brokers contracts...is representative of all of them.

 

[E2ME2]

What I wonder is if that data...which comes from only one resale brokers contracts...is representative of all of them.

Is there a more global ROFR listing/database that you're aware of?
I too would like to see a broader data pool!
ET

 

[Sandisw]

Is there a more global ROFR listing/database that you're aware of?
I too would like to see a broader data pool!
ET

No, this is the only one I have ever seen. But, I do know looking around a resale brokers, there is a difference in terms of asking...some are lower than others

 

[Brianstl]

DVC exercised ROFR 6.5% of the time in March 2020 compared to 14.3% in March 2019 and 7.5% in March 2018.

 

[kmorlock]

For anyone who isn’t 100% sure sales is out of the office, I called my guide’s Direct number today. His recording indicated the sales office is indeed closed. Some may have limited email/voicemail access but pretty much nothing will be done until they are allowed to reopen.

 

[Lorana]

For anyone who isn’t 100% sure sales is out of the office, I called my guide’s Direct number today. His recording indicated the sales office is indeed closed. Some may have limited email/voicemail access but pretty much nothing will be done until they are allowed to reopen.

It would be nice if they had clear messaging about that. It's surprising that, say, the website doesn't say the sales office is closed. While I don't imagine they get a lot of direct sales from the website, it still seems that they should indicate that the sales office is closed.

 

[lawboy2001]

Down. Sales will be down. WAAAAAY down. Start with how far down they went during the 2009 financial crisis, and multiply from there to get a rough idea. Sigh.

 

[jswoodard]

I'm ready to see the deals! I could use 100 direct for the blue card!

 

[sethschroeder]

Down. Sales will be down. WAAAAAY down. Start with how far down they went during the 2009 financial crisis, and multiply from there to get a rough idea. Sigh.

I just want to caution people from saying this is worse than 2009. In 2009 there was basically nothing done for individuals where as right now there is a ton being done. In addition much of the unemployment is "artificial" meaning the reason for the unemployed person is based on layoffs/furloughs directly related to companies partly or fully shutdown because of COVID19.

We will really not know the full impact until a couple months after things start to reopen as to what business made it or didn't make it. Thus what jobs are coming back or not and who is then actually unemployed or not.

There are also more people applying likely than otherwise would in a normal situation as there is so much media regarding the ability to apply for unemployment even if your are still working but your hours are reduced. Which 100% is not a bad thing but a great thing because people should know about these benefits to help them through a rough time.

 

[CastAStone]

I can think of several factors that are likely to increase incentives:

• Length of recession - the more years of MFs people in distressed situations need to pay, the more contracts go on the market. Plummeting resale values would lead to less interest in direct.

• Depth of recession: while not everyone laid off works a blue collar job, the vast, vast majority do. That could change. Companies like a Cracker Barrel or Kohl’s could start laying off finance, accounting, sales, buyers, marketing, etc. Other companies could go under completely. This could remove potential buyers

• Length of park closures: the best ad for DVC is a trip to WDW. Without that the market will decline

• Availability: Massive reductions in 11 month availability due to a points glut could cripple the market for resorts like CCV (which they’re still selling) that have more studio buyers than studios.

• Availability of financing: If the capital markets dry up, fewer people will be able to ‘afford’ the purchase at all

• The Hawaii Problem: Hawaii travel tends to be crippled by recessions and Disney has had trouble selling Aulani for several years now. The direct price should have already been somewhere around $130. It’s currently $163 after incentives. I have trouble imagining it not falling significantly.

• Drying up of rental market: This may not happen. But if it does, people will lose the opportunity try try resorts at remotely reasonable prices, to experience DVC style accommodations, and existing DVC members may be less likely to add on without the “guaranteed floor” of $13/point or whatever.

Overall, the next round of incentives should be deep. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to post them.