So about this Hurricane - 10/7 Dream cancelled, 10/7 Magic Canadian, 10/8 now 10/9 Fantasy 6-night

[perditax]

I'm a bit of a weather nerd, and was surprised to see Castaway Cay being discussed today on a meteorology forum (not used to seeing the name outside of cruise forums). I think it was smack in the middle of one of today's model runs.

 

[iZon]

The Fantasy is scheduled for Jamaica on Wednesday and Castaway on Friday. I would imagine those plans have been altered.

 

[1926Moon]

My own, completely unscientific best guess would be Bermuda.

I know that I probably should not be laughing because this hurricane seems pretty scary - but this really cracked me up

 

[tee11]

The latest model runs have it within 30 miles of Port Canaveral on Friday, nothing is going or coming out of there if that's the case. They'll probably wind up going to Tampa, but too soon to tell. Judging by that forecast track (and intensity) there's a good chance the Bahamas will be out of commission for several weeks for cruises. The private islands may be decimated. So no idea what will happen if that occurs, lots of crazy reroutes and disruptions.

Majesty is going to Freeport tomorrow and then Key West it seems, it probably won't return to Port Canaveral. I could see them actually doing a departure at Miami, Tampa, or Key west itself though.

Really it's anyone's guess. I don't think they've had a storm with this track and intensity in recent times.

But the people that just left today on the Dream - many of them probably parked at Port Canaveral? Isn't it an "open" parking garage? That can't be good?

 

[tee11]

I'm a bit of a weather nerd, and was surprised to see Castaway Cay being discussed today on a meteorology forum (not used to seeing the name outside of cruise forums). I think it was smack in the middle of one of today's model runs.

Oh man. I know CC has weathered hurricanes before, but has it ever been hit directly?

 

[PlanoNana]

Yes, they loaded a lot on the ship and the CMs looked like a bunch of worker bees swarming the island to secure everything.

The Fantasy is scheduled for Jamaica on Wednesday and Castaway on Friday. I would imagine those plans have been altered.

Before any cruise goes to Castaway, the CMs and the equipment that was loaded on the Dream have to return. My guess is that CMs and the equipment were offloaded at PC to wait out Matthew. They'll probably take reinforcements when they return and hopefully get the island cleaned up quickly.

 

[MCO737FO]

I am on the Dream Friday. Supposed to fly BOS-MCO at 7A on Wednesday AM. I spoke with DCL tonight, and they are not providing any new info. I really don't want to fly to FL for a 2-night or 1-night cruise.

I am an airline captain, and I get transportation, weather, you never really know what the storm is gonna do, yada yada, but - what YOU do, is take the safe, conservative approach, and err on the side of caution for the safety and customer satisfaction. No Disney doesn't control the weather, but they sure do control how they react to it, and what options they make available to their customers.

DCL is telling me that they do not yet know for sure how the storm will track (and nobody ever will know until the storm has passed). I don't argue as that is pretty much fact, but I would prefer DCL take a more pragmatic approach and rely on the official forecasts and models offered by NHC/NOAA. Regardless of where the actual track falls, any path within the cone (that has generally remained consistent for several days) spells major problems for a ship trying to make its way through the Florida straights returning to Port Canaveral - Read that, impossible.

Castaway Cay has been evacuated. A ship returning to Port Canaveral on Friday would be sailing through a hurricane which is not going to happen. Come on Disney, step-up and do the right thing. I know you don't want people cancelling, but this is a major, strengthening storm that will have devastating effects and unfortunately take many lives. Allow passengers booked on this cruise to make changes free of penalty. Don't wait for people to have to travel to Florida before you tell them what we already know now - That there is an extremely low probability that the Dream will depart PC on Friday as scheduled. Come on Disney, do you really need the money that bad?

 

[BruinEd03]

I am on the Dream Friday. Supposed to fly BOS-MCO at 7A on Wednesday AM. I spoke with DCL tonight, and they are not providing any new info. I really don't want to fly to FL for a 2-night or 1-night cruise.

I am an airline captain, and I get transportation, weather, you never really know what the storm is gonna do, yada yada, but - what YOU do, is take the safe, conservative approach, and err on the side of caution for the safety and customer satisfaction. No Disney doesn't control the weather, but they sure do control how they react to it, and what options they make available to their customers.

DCL is telling me that they do not yet know for sure how the storm will track (and nobody ever will know until the storm has passed). I don't argue as that is pretty much fact, but I would prefer DCL take a more pragmatic approach and rely on the official forecasts and models offered by NHC/NOAA. Regardless of where the actual track falls, any path within the cone (that has generally remained consistent for several days) spells major problems for a ship trying to make its way through the Florida straights returning to Port Canaveral - Read that, impossible.

Castaway Cay has been evacuated. A ship returning to Port Canaveral on Friday would be sailing through a hurricane which is not going to happen. Come on Disney, step-up and do the right thing. I know you don't want people cancelling, but this is a major, strengthening storm that will have devastating effects and unfortunately take many lives. Allow passengers booked on this cruise to make changes free of penalty. Don't wait for people to have to travel to Florida before you tell them what we already know now - That there is an extremely low probability that the Dream will depart PC on Friday as scheduled. Come on Disney, do you really need the money that bad?

The cone of uncertainty is actually not a great predictor. "The size of each circle is set at two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five-year period. Based on those previous forecast errors, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time." https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/tropical-storm-cyclone-forecast-cone-hurricane
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/tropical-storm-cyclone-forecast-cone-hurricane
Furthermore, that cone is also time-based. If it goes by quickly, you may not even have an issue.

If you prematurely cancel the cruise, then you'll anger hundreds, possibly a thousand passengers. If you cancel, too late, you risk doing the same. My guess is that they will announce something by Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning to allow for travelers to make alternate arrangements if need be (most would probably be flying in on Thursday).

 

[MCO737FO]

Bruined -

I get weather.

I actually work with weather observations and forecasts as an airline pilot, and am actively required to factor weather conditions into every aspect of my job. I have taken meteorology courses as part of an academic aviation education, and I lived in Celebration/Central FL for many years before returning home to Boston. I get that hurricanes move. I've seen it many times.

I never suggested that Disney should cancel a cruise. I did suggest that they give passengers the option of changing their plans free of penalty based on the information available today. The forecasts become more "real" and "accurate" by the hour.

Yes or no, right now. Do you believe the Dream will depart PC on Friday as scheduled? I do not, as she would need to sail through a hurricane to return to port on Friday, and regardless of where in the cone (or even moderately out of the cone) the track may take, there is no visible scenario that would prevent the Dream from needing to manuever through a hurricane. The trend is a slowing storm, not accelerating, and it is intensifying. These factors bode worse for this sailing, not better. I probably know more about cancelling transportation for masses of people than most on this board, and I fully understand the impacts.

A 70% chance of remaining in the cone (as your data states) are stats that further support this action.

If you were traveling to FL solely for the reason of taking short cruise, and you strongly believe that the cruise will be negatively impacted by extreme and deadly adverse weather conditions, would you BruinEd appreciate having an opportunity to alter your plans, or would you be fine with being stuck in FL with wasted airline tickets, no cruise, no place to stay? Disney should support people trying to actively manage their plans in the face of such a major event. Now even more than cruise impacts, there is the possibility of major impacts to the FL peninsula. I've lived in FL through 3 major hurricanes. Days without power on a planned vacation is not what I call fun. At the end of the day, I will cancel and eat the money if need be, the safety, comfort, and well being of my family is more important than losing money on a cruise.

 

[mlayton14]

Don't be so sure that Disney wouldn't sail through a hurricane, , they did exactly that with the Fantasy sailing through Sandy to get back to port canaveral on time. I hear you though , highly doubt the ship actually departs port canaveral on Friday given the current info

 

[MCO737FO]

Latest model just got worse for PC, this weekend's departures, and Castaway Cay. PC could potentially be looking at a direct hit (yeah, yeah I get it, tracks to change, but they also become more accurate as time goes on, and we're running out of days). The storm has missed the mountains of Cuba which would have broken-up, and significantly weakened the storm, instead it has remained over very warm water moving slowly, rapidly gaining strength.

Based on my 13 years living in Central Florida, expect evacuation orders from the PC area to be announced very soon following the declaration of a state of emergency (which does much more than simply mustering resources and allocating funds - look at Florida statute 252).

Come on Disney, magical thoughts are not going to make this hurricane disappear. Do you really want your passengers traveling into an area that will be impacted by a major, deadly hurricane (worst Atlantic storm in over 10-years) that unfortunately will take countless lives?

 

[MCO737FO]

Truly, I have given DCL or Disney my last penny. I just spoke with them, asked them to allow me to rebook on another DCL cruise (instead of traveling to FL and maneuvering through a hurricane). Nope. They are monitoring the situation and don't expect to make any updates until the day of departure. FUBAR. I'm platinum and have sailed with them tons of times. I will lose my money on this cruise - I'm not putting my family at best in a very anxious and inconvenient situation and at worse in harms way because the greedy idiots at Magical Cruise Company won't do the prudent and responsible thing. It is totally irresponsible to be advising anyone to travel into Central Florida for discretionary reasons right now.

 

[hubbard53]

It is totally irresponsible to be advising anyone to travel into Central Florida for discretionary reasons right now.

well, it is only Tuesday - there is a lot of time still for the storm to alter trajectory so it wouldnt make a lot of sense to cancel or allow changes AT THIS TIME. Now, if its still on track wednesday then yes, I totally agree with you.

I'm planning to arrive in Orlando Saturday morning and leave from PC on Monday so I'm watching closely as well. If the storm remains on this course then I will NOT be arriving Saturday.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Truly, I have given DCL or Disney my last penny. I just spoke with them, asked them to allow me to rebook on another DCL cruise (instead of traveling to FL and maneuvering through a hurricane). Nope. They are monitoring the situation and don't expect to make any updates until the day of departure. FUBAR. I'm platinum and have sailed with them tons of times. I will lose my money on this cruise - I'm not putting my family at best in a very anxious and inconvenient situation and at worse in harms way because the greedy idiots at Magical Cruise Company won't do the prudent and responsible thing. It is totally irresponsible to be advising anyone to travel into Central Florida for discretionary reasons right now.

I'm not sure what's reasonable to expect to DCL to do until watches and warnings go up. A cruise ship isn't like an aircraft - it has more options in severe weather. Disney is operating from the standpoint of being wholly committed to getting a cruise out if at all possible. Looking at the current timing and current track, I suspect docking in Miami or Port Everglades isn't out of the question. While each new forecast puts Matthew closer to the Florida coast, timing and path can still change dramatically over the next day or two.

This is one of those times when you probably have to make a decision that is best for you and your family. I believe most trip insurance policies make provision for when a hurricane watch or warning is in effect for your home area or your destination. You can likely activate that provision in the next 24 hours if things don't change.

It sucks, and I would be having the same anxiety. I hope it turns out OK for you.

Dirk

 

[millie]

I am getting concerned as well. DD and I are supposed to fly down Friday morning (yes I know), no insurance. And I really hate to fly, particularly in bad weather. I had already decided that if we ended up missing the ship then we would just spend the weekend at Downtown Disney. DD is scheduled to fly home on Monday morning and DH is flying down Monday morning for a 4 night stay at WDW for the two of us. So I have to wait it out and then figure out if and how I am going to get to Orlando by Monday. It's hard to concentrate on work with everything up in the air.

 

[Trera]

This type of situation is exactly why many get trip insurance.

Also, if the eye of that storm gets near CC, the wind will be devastating but the 10' storm surge will be worse. Most of the island will go under water while the storm pushes through. Major beach erosion and damage. We are hoping it doesn't happen as we were thinking of grabbing a November cruise but the information through this morning doesn't look good.

I have lived in Orlando for over 40 years and saw the damage to Miami a little less than 20 years ago. Don't underestimate the power of these storms. Category 4 storms are nothing to take lightly and clean up effort will not happen quickly.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[over50visits]

As platinum members, we love DCL. Love the crew, the ships, and the onboard experience. We used to sail during hurricane season because we had faith that Disney would keep us not only safe, but comfortably away from threatening weather.

After Sandy, we changed that attitude. I am so sad that Matthew is confirming the wisdom of our choice. It's not just making a decision based on the probable track at the last minute, it is proactively treating the guests reasonable apprehensions with respect, and erring far, far on the side of caution. We don't choose cruise dates during the hurricane season any more.

We will be sailing again in the early spring, and will love it. I just have to say Disney maximizes revenue, as they should, sometimes at the expense of guest comfort, which I wish they wouldn't. Everyone on Disney's cruises this week is certainly safe, but that is really a minimum bar, and they should be better than that.

 

[Dug720]

Just a guess here... They are likely far busier and more concerned at the moment with the Fantasy given that she was originally slated to be in Jamaica than they are at immediately dealing with Friday when the forecasts could still change. Do they have people monitoring and working on alternatives? Of course they do. But current issues are going to take precedence over something a few days from now.

This is the perfect example of why one SHOULD buy trip insurance. If you had it with cancel for any reason you could most definitely activate that now. If you choose to cruise without it - particularly in hurricane season for anyone or in the winter for those in locations that tend to get ice and snow, that is a HUGE risk you take. I'm sorry to be blunt, but that is the truth. If you choose to cruise without insurance - particularly when weather could well be a factor - you are choosing to gamble that everything will work out.

 

[undertheradar]

Truly, I have given DCL or Disney my last penny. I just spoke with them, asked them to allow me to rebook on another DCL cruise (instead of traveling to FL and maneuvering through a hurricane). Nope. They are monitoring the situation and don't expect to make any updates until the day of departure. FUBAR. I'm platinum and have sailed with them tons of times. I will lose my money on this cruise - I'm not putting my family at best in a very anxious and inconvenient situation and at worse in harms way because the greedy idiots at Magical Cruise Company won't do the prudent and responsible thing. It is totally irresponsible to be advising anyone to travel into Central Florida for discretionary reasons right now.

Being that you are an airline pilot, is it safe to say that you have no flight cost for this vacation? As has already been stated, you have the option to take out insurance, did you? Having lived in the Orlando area for a number of years, surely you were aware that hurricane season is something to consider when booking a vacation to Florida. I don't understand faulting DCL when you know that nobody controls the weather.

 

[Quellman]

I believe the Magic class ships are the largest that can dock there (at the Navy dock). And DCL has docked at the Mole dock (on the Truman Waterfront. The Navy base - Access is restricted and requires passage through a security check point for all cruise passengers.

When I was in Key West in April, I saw the Magic dock at Pier B which is right near Mallory Square and not the Outer Mole. She was docked right behind another ship which was berthed at Mallory. I think the city tries to NOT use outer mole if at all possible. It is away from the touristy shops and sites and provides other logistical issues for tour operators.

But the people that just left today on the Dream - many of them probably parked at Port Canaveral? Isn't it an "open" parking garage? That can't be good?

I attached an image of the parking garage. It is "open on the sides" as you would expect. I would think those parked on the outside edges would be most likely to get any type of hail or debris damage. Those on the inside would fare better. I wouldn't ever park on the roof though, hurricane or not.