As has been pointed out, you will lose your blue card membership when your OKW contracts expire. The blue card is probably the biggest reason to purchase direct right now, followed by the resale restrictions which only exclude use at one resort at the present time. You would have to purchase additional direct points to maintain your blue card and who knows what amount that will be given how
DVC continues to raise the bar.
75 points at RIV or 80 points at CCV will not get you a full week at either of those resorts in Nov./Dec. You will not be able to combine those points with your OKW points at 11 months to make a reservation. Which means split stays between OKW and your new resort, traveling every other year to RIV or CCV or shorter trips.The occasional week in 1BR villas will be out of reach with banking and 50% borrowing.
You are correct in your thinking that if you want a standard view studio at RIV or any studio at CCV during that period, you will need to own there. With the exceptions of Poly, OKW, AKV and SSR that could be said for pretty much all resorts during the time you want to visit. When the 2042 resorts expire you are going to see that pool of available studios dwindle further as more resale owners will have fewer options to switch to at 7 months.
I think that the resale restrictions will affect you more at RIV than you think. Anyone buying RIV resale is only going to be able to book at RIV. That will increase competition for rooms and unlike direct owners, there's not going to be a big shift to other resorts at 7 months so that your wait list can pick up any nights you were unable to book. It's not just the next guy's problem.
But after having played the devil's advocate, I will add that both CCV and RIV are beautiful resorts in their own ways. I don't think either is a bad choice. But a happy wife means a happy life. If she loves RIV, you buy RIV.