September Direct Sales

[BeachClub2014]

Those "uneducated buyers" are the ones that can be most helpful to the developer. They may first buy 100 points thinking they can book standard view studios at 9 months out, then they will buy 150 more points because they realize they need more space, and then they will buy 250 points at a different resort because they are generally happy with what they have.

But when some of them inevitably try to sell, they can also cause the most damage to the developer because they can be posting all over social media things like that they didn't know the resorts they bought were restricted and worth pennies on the dollar on the resale market, that their loans are underwater and they can't sell, and that they believe they were totally duped when they first bought in.

It took me many years to buy into DVC for a variety of reasons. But even when I wasn't an owner, I'd generally hear about the organization having a relatively great reputation in the timeshare world. But it wasn't because of these types of new restrictions, which resemble what other developers have been doing for a while.

I get your point, but to be fair, it's impossible for a direct buyer not to know that the resort they purchased had restrictions on resale points. It's in all the documents you must sign, and Riviera resales are selling for more than pennies on the dollar. They may not be at a price many feel it should be, but not pennies on the dollar. Having to sell any timeshare purchase that has been financed comes with the risk of being underwater. That's one reason many feel it is a bad idea from the onset.

DVD sold nearly 275,000 direct points in September, so many people see value in going that route. It will be interesting to see where those numbers land once GFV sells out and the RIV, Poly Tower, and CFW are all in active sales with restrictions. Assuming, of course, the last two have restrictions.

 

[DanCali]

Riviera resales are selling for more than pennies on the dollar. They may not be at a price many feel it should be, but not pennies on the dollar.

That's true - for now... But the average owner there has owned for barely 2 years. So there's not a lot of supply at this point, and the buyers buying RIV resale now are probably the least price sensitive ones (biggest fans?) and willing to pay the most. I suspect most buyers and sellers probably strongly disagree on valuation at this point. It will take time to reach an efficient resale market with an equilibrium...

 

[Sandisw]

At current sales levels, RIV won't sell out for another 4 years. And if sales double because it's the cheapest and/or only WDW resort, it will still take 2 years to sell out. But even with the new fall incentives starting Sep 12 (and recognizing those deeds wouldn't get recorded till after Sep 22) it didn't crack the 50K points mark. On the other hand VGF was off the charts even with the price hike after Sep 12. It seems that resale restrictions impact direct sales too - not sure how much this was foreseen by those who came up with the idea...

Many of the VGF sales were undoubtedly from the summer from owners who put off closing until late August early September.

Sales numbers tend to be about a half month behind so most the data here is prior to the raise in price of VGF and the lowering of incentives.

October sales will be a better indicator of the two side by side with RIV being less expensive

 

[Sandisw]

The speed of VGF nearly selling out makes me think the new Poly Tower will be the same association as their original villas. It appears that grandfathering it in was a great sales tactic. Especially for those who want to add onto their existing contract. Makes perfect business sense.

I know there's already an entire thread devoted to this debate, but the direct sales stats speak for themselves.

Rememger, though, VGF needed discounts and the return of the MB program to spark the sales rate it has received because those two things basically brought it down to close to resale pricing.

PVB is currently inching up but it still seems to be in the $140s. I do not see them getting aggressive with Poly tower in the same way, regardless of association.

Plus, its 2022 sales were not great, aside from the first few months, when direct buyers had the cheaper option of RIV.

If restrictions is the killer that some believe it currently is, there would not have been the sales differences between VGF and RIV for those 4 or 5 months last year

Do I think RIzv sales are strong? No. Do I think DVD is content with them? Yes.

I also think that DVD seems to want a model that has many active resorts for buyers vs one main one. It seems to me they care about total volume and not necessarily each indivual resort in isolation.

 

[Sandisw]

That's true - for now... But the average owner there has owned for barely 2 years. So there's not a lot of supply at this point, and the buyers buying RIV resale now are probably the least price sensitive ones (biggest fans?) and willing to pay the most. I suspect most buyers and sellers probably strongly disagree on valuation at this point. It will take time to reach an efficient resale market with an equilibrium...

Since RIV has been on sale for about 4 1/2 years, just wondering how you arrive that sellers have only owned only 2 years as an average when selling?

I definitely agree with you that it’s still too early to see a big supply..but it’s possible that owners will be like me and hold RIV for much longer before selling unless it’s an unforeseen emergency.

If the resale value tanks…I don’t believe it will once sold out and more restricted resorts exist…they will be the last contracts I sell.

Sales data for September climbed for both VGF and RIV…VDH not so much.

As I already mentioned, October data will be good for seeing how things played out with the mid month rise for VGF!

 

[DanCali]

Since RIV has been on sale for about 4 1/2 years, just wondering how you arrive that sellers have only owned only 2 years as an average when selling?

I said " the average owner there has owned for barely 2 years" - not the "average seller". If some owners own for 4 years and some owners owned for 1 month, then the average ownership time should currently be around 2 years...

The current sellers are probably among the earlier buyers, but even owning for 3-4 years is not really representative of the average DVC seller, which is around 7(?) years

 

[Sandisw]

I said " the average owner there has owned for barely 2 years" - not the "average seller". If some owners own for 4 years and some owners owned for 1 month, then the average ownership time should currently be around 2 years...

The current sellers are probably among the earlier buyers, but even owning for 3-4 years is not really representative of the average DVC seller, which is around 7(?) years

Thanks for clarifying…I knew I was missing something!!!

 

[maui22]

As a corporation, DVD can play the long game and look beyond the expiration of the penultimate O14 resort (PVB in 2066), at which point every resale is a one-resort option.

Minor detail...I believe CCV in 2068 is the last of the O14.

 

[DanCali]

Minor detail...I believe CCV in 2068 is the last of the O14.

True, but doesn't contradict what I said in any way...

PVB is the penultimate (i.e., next to last) resort to expire. Once that goes, CCV resale may as well be restricted because it will have nowhere else to trade into.

 

[maui22]

One of the things that attracted us to DVC was because it wasn't like other timeshares.

Took several years, but friends and family would eventually admit they bought some other timeshare and lost a lot of money on it when they decided it wasn't for them after 5-10 years.

Over that last 15 years or so, I still know very little about other timeshares because of the horror stories I have heard.

We don't know what will happen. However, if in 10-20 years restricted resorts sell for lower prices than non-restricted (example VGF since it's one that expires later), word of mouth would spread. Last thing Disney wants is unhappy customers putting down their product in front of perspective buyers. Parks and hotel DVC are so accessible, they want everyone staying at the resort/park to be enjoying the pixie dust.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Comparing VGF and Riviera sales is apples and oranges. It's not surprising VGF2 is almost sold out because it has less than 2 million points, whereas, Riviera has almost 7 million. If Disney was able to sell almost 4 million Riviera points since 2019, isn't that a similar pace as VGF2?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

True, but doesn't contradict what I said in any way...

PVB is the penultimate (i.e., next to last) resort to expire. Once that goes, CCV resale may as well be restricted because it will have nowhere else to trade into.

When Poly1 expires in 2066, I be able to use my direct CCV points only at CCV for 2 more years. But then again, I'll also be approaching my 90's. I don't think I'm going to care.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They are going to have a lot of points to sell at 50 year + old properties when all of these resorts expire and are re-sold direct….

 

[DVCsloth]

I would think Disney is fairly happy with the sales at Riviera. Cash reservations seem to do well there. GF on the other hand seemed to struggle a little bit on the cash side. VGF 2 was an easy flip. I think Riviera will hold its own since IMO it is a great resort and an excellent location. We own at both, and I wasn't very happy with Disney adding VGF2 to the same association, but I understand why they did it.

 

[intamin]

When Poly1 expires in 2066, I be able to use my direct CCV points only at CCV for 2 more years. But then again, I'll also be approaching my 90's. I don't think I'm going to care.

And with your last dying breath.. "...I need more points.."

 

[AstroBlasters]

And with your last dying breath.. "...I need more points.."

and hearing my wife said “no…. we…. don’t…..”

 

[HIRyeDVC]

And with your last dying breath.. "...I need more points.."

uh.....it's gonna be more like...."please....change.....my.....diaper......."

 

[intamin]

uh.....it's gonna be more like...."please....change.....my.....diaper......."

your partner : ".. honey you don't need a diaper, you have a tube up your butt"

LOL okay I'm done I swear anywaysss where were we. ah yes, Riviera sales are doing just fine

They are going to have a lot of points to sell at 50 year + old properties when all of these resorts expire and are re-sold direct….

I imagine they're going to treat it like how they do when they sell a new resort and maybe offer current home resort owners the opportunity to buy in before anyone else and then open sales to everyone 6 months to a year in advance of the resort opening