San Andreas Earthquake - "10 Months Pregnant"

[Neapolitan Ice Cream]

Apparently a huge earthquake along the San Andreas faultline is long overdue and could easily result in "tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of damage" (New Scientist). Part of this is due to a major lake drying up, reducing lubrication and relieving stress through mass. Really the best we can hope for is a series of smaller quakes, but in all likelihood a huge one is on the cards. Any day now!

 

[sam_gordon]

Since OP didn't provide I link, I'm assuming he's talking about this: https://www.newscientist.com/articl...rdue for a,and North American tectonic plates.

Newsweek mentioned it last October: https://www.newsweek.com/big-earthquake-san-andreas-overdue-what-will-happen-1755442

USGS seems to think a minor one is due, but I don't see a date on the article: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18april/whenagain.php

LA Times talked about it in 2021: https://www.latimes.com/science/sto...biggest-earthquake-threat-san-andreas-big-one

CBS News in 2019: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong...at-california-is-way-overdue-for-the-big-one/

 

[DLgal]

Isn't the dried up lake what is actually preventing a massive quake?

We have been "overdue" for awhile now. They don't think it's happening anytime soon though, because of the dried up lake.

 

[Neapolitan Ice Cream]

Isn't the dried up lake what is actually preventing a massive quake?

We have been "overdue" for awhile now. They don't think it's happening anytime soon though, because of the dried up lake.

Exactly. Apologies if I conveyed it poorly.

The dried up lake is preventing the quake in a timely manner on two fronts:

1. Lubrification. A large amount of water can ease stress and allow tectonic plates to move more smoothly against each other. Think James Bond in "View to a Kill".
2. Mass. The mass of all that water would have forced smoother tectonic movements by sheer force alone. Now there is no water, there's nothing to keep things moving on a regular, nice process.

 

[goofyernmost]

Apparently a huge earthquake along the San Andreas faultline is long overdue and could easily result in "tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of damage" (New Scientist). Part of this is due to a major lake drying up, reducing lubrication and relieving stress through mass. Really the best we can hope for is a series of smaller quakes, but in all likelihood a huge one is on the cards. Any day now!

They have been saying that for years now. I'm sure it will happen sometime, but all the garbage about any particular thing causing it is just scare tactics. I went to Disneyland in the end of Sept. 2005 (DL's 50th) Shortly before Katrina had ravaged New Orleans, wildfires were raging (as usual) in Cali, it was extremely hot which wasn't normal for Sept. so all I heard was how all this was natures way of causing the big one.

I'm from an area that very seldom has any earthquakes and the ones we had were pretty minor so here I was on the bottom floor of a hotel and everyone was telling me this stuff. The last thing I wanted was to wake up with the building on top of me, so I didn't sleep well. That was 18 years ago and the big one hasn't happened yet. In California, especially on that fault line, it is always possible that there will be an earthquake, but that can be said for everywhere in the country.

California has been in a drought for years now and a lake drying up is a pretty common happening. Tectonic plate movements have been happening since there was an earth and they are not dependent on outside weather condition. Every little one they have releases a little pressure on their movement. The more the better should be the battle cry.

 

[_19disnA]

Sounds like a similar thread recently about some big volcano supposedly 'overdue' in Italy. There is still no reliable way for scientists to predict when/where an earthquake (or volcanic eruption) will occur. Geological science tends to measure things in terms of thousands of years. Not anything I would lose sleep over this week/month/year. Earthquakes or volcanic eruptions CAN happen in parts of the world with known activity and specific types of rock formations. When they WILL actually happen, no one knows and none of this is news to anyone but articles seem to keep resurfacing that suddenly get people interested.

As with anything you find on the internet, I would also look at the source of such articles and if they were written by reliable scientists or someone throwing yet another wild opinion about something.

 

[MillauFr]

I think SLO should have a poll whether the earthquake or the super volcano in Italy happens first....

 

[MillauFr]

California has been in a drought for years now and a lake drying up is a pretty common happening. Tectonic plate movements have been happening since there was an earth and they are not dependent on outside weather condition. Every little one they have releases a little pressure on their movement. The more the better should be the battle cry.

The drought in California is over.

 

[Genie+]

It’s like supervolcanoes. Could be soon anytime now, any month or any decade…

 

[TheIncredibles!]

We were told while in Yellowstone last month that Old Faithful wasn’t herself earlier this year…

 

[goofyernmost]

The drought in California is over.

It has rained recently but that is not a full recovery. Floods mean that it is just coming down faster then the ground can absorb it. No place completely recovers from years of drought because it rained hard for a couple of weeks. Plus those moving plates do not need lubrication they move when the pressure is high enough. At best it might make minor movement easier and not cause a huge movement all at once.

 

[DLgal]

It has rained recently but that is not a full recovery. Floods mean that it is just coming down faster then the ground can absorb it. No place completely recovers from years of drought because it rained hard for a couple of weeks. Plus those moving plates do not need lubrication they move when the pressure is high enough. At best it might make minor movement easier and not cause a huge movement all at once.

It didn't just rain for a couple of weeks. It literally rained for several months straight. And yes, the majority of the state is no longer in a drought category. Only 4.6% is in drought. That's a significant change from a year ago.

And if you read the article about the Salton Sea and the San Andreas fault, you will learn that lakebeds DO contribute extra lubrication for tectonic plates and it does cause more frequent earthquake activity.