Rumor by agent - Blue Card min. going up

[sethschroeder]

They could always sell a bundle - Buy the remaining 10 years at BCV and Buy 50 years of BCV 2.0 for the low low price of one bazillion dollars

100% but that won't be until like 2038 when they set 2.0 point charts, prices, ect.

Put it this way if they did just trot out the same point chart for an extension on all of 2042 resorts then I would start to get worried about the future because that is Disney 100% just trying to quickly cash in before things fall apart.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

This right here. I prefer the 1 BR, which there are few of. I'd be fine with a Studio, if it slept 5. The lack of the third sleeping space in the studios and the lack of 1/2 BRs has made me seriously reconsider buying the DVC Tower.

But to be honest, I really want VGC, but I suspect there will never be a small enough contract at a price I'm willing to pay that isn't snatched up before I see it. ;-)

I've noticed VGC doesn't have many small contracts to begin with, and then the prices are ridiculous!

I don't stay in studios, and I REALLY don't stay in pod studios, so it's not right for me. I get that it's in a neighborhood, but the no balconies thing was disappointing.

The idea of having to make the bed after the end of a long theme park day is so unappealing to me! But I would want the couch sometimes, so it's not like I can just leave the bed down.

At least you know what you want in a resort. I wonder if they'll make some adjustments to the unit design and/or mix now that the designs are released and people have been discussing them, although I'm not sure that's possible with the recent council approval.

Maybe its because I'm newer to DVC but I've been buying contracts at the resorts I want to stay at with no intention on trading out. I bought VGF recently and these will only ever be used there. I think the future of DVC will require you to buy where you want to stay with trading out being increasingly more difficult for a range of various reasons over the next 20 years. At least that's been my philosophy buying in in the first place.

It's interesting how there are people buying SSR (usually) for Sleep-Around Points while at the same time there are people buying hard-to-get resorts to stay there exclusively with no intention to trade out at 7-months. I agree that the 7-month window is likely to get tighter over the years.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's interesting how there are people buying SSR (usually) for Sleep-Around Points while at the same time there are people buying hard-to-get resorts to stay there exclusively with no intention to trade out at 7-months. I agree that the 7-month window is likely to get tighter over the years.

Yup for 3 out of every 4 SSR and OKW contracts sold, 1 out of every 2 AKV contracts sold, and for every resale RIV contract sold it slowly tightens the primary WDW locations.

There will always be options typically though as long as DVC does their job by balancing the point chart seasons to spread out demand through the year.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

100% but that won't be until like 2038 when they set 2.0 point charts, prices, ect.

Put it this way if they did just trot out the same point chart for an extension on all of 2042 resorts then I would start to get worried about the future because that is Disney 100% just trying to quickly cash in before things fall apart.

I agree with a point revision on legacy resorts. But that cannot happen until after 2042. You cannot change point allocation until after the contract expires. Unless they modified rooms based on the number of people who purchase the extensions (???). This still supports my comment about 100 point purchases. If you can't get a studio now, imagine what you will get in 2042! You have to keep raising the minimum purchase of direct points as the resale prices decrease.

 

[Dean]

It's been talked about multiple times there is really no way they extend the contracts. They want new point charts in 2042 not the old point charts.



We are talking about another 4 years likely before they really need to worry about that. They could flip to OKW as a primary resort in the interim moving contracts out to the new expiration.

They could also flip rooms at CBR or another moderate in to a new DVC as well. Possibly even revisiting WL to complete the conversion to DVC.

I could see them extending in some way, they really have to some of the resorts unless hey build more. The market would not support reselling all the WDW 2042 properties new at the same time even with the same points charts. But there are lots of ways they could structure it. Regardless it'll be lots of $$$, likely more than it's worth whatever they do just like the OKW extension was when it was offered.

 

[sethschroeder]

I agree with a point revision on legacy resorts. But that cannot happen until after 2042. You cannot change point allocation until after the contract expires. Unless they modified rooms based on the number of people who purchase the extensions (???). This still supports my comment about 100 point purchases. If you can't get a studio now, imagine what you will get in 2042! You have to keep raising the minimum purchase of direct points as the resale prices decrease.

What about 100 points? If anything if I am buying resale like RIV I am buying 100 from RIV, 100 from BLT, and 100 from BCV.

I combine and bank to get my split trips yearly at just 2 resorts in 2BRs.

I already said as an example right now buying RIV for 100 points just means I bank or borrow to get my stays while using my other contracts for other years or to fill out the number of days staying.

 

[sethschroeder]

I agree with a point revision on legacy resorts. But that cannot happen until after 2042. You cannot change point allocation until after the contract expires. Unless they modified rooms based on the number of people who purchase the extensions (???). This still supports my comment about 100 point purchases. If you can't get a studio now, imagine what you will get in 2042! You have to keep raising the minimum purchase of direct points as the resale prices decrease.

I guess I am just confused? Are you saying that it should be a higher buy-in amount period and smaller contracts should not be sold?

The issue you have is that people can add-on for much smaller contracts. If the minimum direct buy-in was 200 points as an example someone might just buy a 25 pointer, buy a direct add-on of 100 points, then sell off or keep that resale 25 pointer.

There really is no way to keep contracts small because DVC is not going to turn away someone wanting to just add-on a couple more nights to their stay.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

What about 100 points? If anything if I am buying resale like RIV I am buying 100 from RIV, 100 from BLT, and 100 from BCV.

I combine and bank to get my split trips yearly at just 2 resorts in 2BRs.

I already said as an example right now buying RIV for 100 points just means I bank or borrow to get my stays while using my other contracts for other years or to fill out the number of days staying.

Sorry, I think we are saying the same thing but from different perspectives. Lost in chatboard translation.

My original comment was meant to suggest that 100 direct contracts don't make sense to DVC because it doesn't support a 7-day stay in a studio. Since this is the case, the people buying 100-point direct contracts are most likely those with existing resale contracts trying to earn their blue-card.

Just because the blue-card minimum goes up to 125, doesn't mean that a new buyer can't purchase a 75-point contract. Correct? They just won't get the blue card?

 

[LTJoeFlo]

I guess I am just confused? Are you saying that it should be a higher buy-in amount period and smaller contracts should not be sold?

I received my blue card with my first contract. I don't care what the minimum purchase is. To me, a member is a member. I just think DVC is altering the minimum to clamp down on the resale market. Just my observation from watching the new restrictions that seem to come out every year. Why else would they make these changes? From a financial perspective, I don't see why a new DVC direct purchase would be 100 points or under, considering it will be hard to use. My first contract was VGF, you can't get anything for 100 points. I would need to save 2-years for a studio or 3 years for a 1br.

I also have a small 75-point contract at CCV. I purchased it because I had a few extra travel dollars last year. I'm definitely not against small add-on contracts and I think DVC likes this type of business as well.

 

[CastAStone]

This still supports my comment about 100 point purchases. If you can't get a studio now, imagine what you will get in 2042!

3 WDW resorts expire in 2042: BWV, BCV and BRV. BCV and BWV have 80% of the points between the 3. It is extremely hard to trade into a studio at either today for most of the year, so you shouldn’t really consider them as studio inventory lost. Don’t forget that the people who own those contracts won’t be trading those points for studios at other resorts anymore either. VB and HHI are terrible SAP candidates and shouldn’t really figure into that either. People buy OKW for sleep around points, sure, but Disney in the last few years has started aggressively buying and extending those, so they can make a considerable dent in their 2042 inventory if they keep at it.

 

[CastAStone]

The market would not support reselling all the WDW 2042 properties new at the same time even with the same points charts.

There’s only 10 million points among the three Walt Disney World 2042 resorts, and unless something unexpectedly changes, they’re probably going to shut down Vero Beach and Hilton Head at that time. That’s fewer points than SSR or Aulani - I think as long as they keep the runway clear around it, they will be able to sell it. Particularly at the Epcot resorts, if they convert some of the one-bedrooms into studios, I think they will be able to sell through 8-12 million points very quickly.

Really interesting will be in 2054-2057 when the three largest Walt Disney World resorts all expire within three years.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

There’s only 10 million points among the three Walt Disney World 2042 resorts, and unless something unexpectedly changes, they’re probably going to shut down Vero Beach and Hilton Head.

I've seen others write about this possibility as well. For HHI and VB can Disney realistically dump them prior to expiry or do they need to wait for 2042?

 

[sethschroeder]

Really interesting will be in 2054-2057 when the three largest Walt Disney World resorts all expire within three years.

I think by 2035 they will decided how to proceed and a system in which they can resell resorts early will be created. I cant see a reason why they would wait for the resort to actually expire.

Instead they will create and define the 2.0 and simply sell 2.0 giving early purchasers access to the remaining years under an addendum contract of some sort that terminates and goes away when 1.0 expires and 2.0 then activates.

They have too many resorts expiring too close together to wait until expiration.

 

[sethschroeder]

I've seen others write about this possibility as well. For HHI and VB can Disney realistically dump them prior to expiry or do they need to wait for 2042?

Issue is that if they dump them now you are giving another company 2% ownership in a DVC location that can still trade in to WDW. Not saying they can do it but think they let them expire because otherwise there is possible risk of damage to DVC/Disney.

 

[CastAStone]

I've seen others write about this possibility as well. For HHI and VB can Disney realistically dump them prior to expiry or do they need to wait for 2042?

They could discharge them, but it would be a whole todo, and I imagine if they haven’t done it yet, they’re going to wait for 2042.

 

[ScubaCat]

I just think DVC is altering the minimum to clamp down on the resale market.

 

[lovethesun12]

This thinking has often puzzled me. CCV studios are a nightmare NOW and that's never going to change over the life of the property! The only way I would buy CCV is a fixed week, and even then I would have to be convinced I would use this fixed week for the most part.

When people start buying Riv resale, they will have no ability to book any resort other than Riv at 0-7 months out. This will be a major issue because if they wait that long to book, it’s quite likely they won’t be able to use their points at all since they can’t stay at open resorts like SSR or OKW.

This means anyone who buys Riv resale who wants to use their points (which is everyone I would imagine) is going to *have* to book 7-11 months out; resale customers will probably be more likely to book at the 11 month mark to guarantee a stay.

 

[Leahc117]

There’s only 10 million points among the three Walt Disney World 2042 resorts, and unless something unexpectedly changes, they’re probably going to shut down Vero Beach and Hilton Head. That’s fewer points than SSR or Aulani - I think as long as they keep the runway clear around it, they will be able to sell it. Particularly at the Epcot resorts, if they convert some of the one-bedrooms into studios, I think they will be able to sell through 8-12 million points very quickly.

Really interesting will be in 2054-2057 when the three largest Walt Disney World resorts all expire within three years.
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Can you please explain this - I realize it’s years out but doesn’t DVC look more attractive because of the additional resorts off property? I am ready/willing to buy and feel so confused about what my best move is - but even though I would prioritize the WDW resorts it is nice to know that the others are there. I imagine doing a Vero trip someday or having extra points to stay at HHI because maybe as my kids grow we just don’t want to stay at WDW exclusively? So are you saying Disney dumps those resorts because they aren’t as popular?

 

[Leahc117]

Can you please explain this - I realize it’s years out but doesn’t DVC look more attractive because of the additional resorts off property? I am ready/willing to buy and feel so confused about what my best move is - but even though I would prioritize the WDW resorts it is nice to know that the others are there. I imagine doing a Vero trip someday or having extra points to stay at HHI because maybe as my kids grow we just don’t want to stay at WDW exclusively? So are you saying Disney dumps those resorts because they aren’t as popular?

 

[CastAStone]

Can you please explain this - I realize it’s years out but doesn’t DVC look more attractive because of the additional resorts off property? I am ready/willing to buy and feel so confused about what my best move is - but even though I would prioritize the WDW resorts it is nice to know that the others are there. I imagine doing a Vero trip someday or having extra points to stay at HHI because maybe as my kids grow we just don’t want to stay at WDW exclusively? So are you saying Disney dumps those resorts because they aren’t as popular?

More or less, yes, it’s about popularity. They had to cancel half of VB because they had so much trouble selling the first phase. HHI sold a little better but Aulani has literally been for sale for over 10 years now, and as far as the figurers can figure, is not remotely close to being sold out.

They also have wound up with dues that are significant outliers to the rest of the DVC program due to taking on some serious costs over the years.

I don’t see them wanting to repeat that experience.

They’re on the hook until 2042 though.