I agree with you that the money is with Disney resort guests. However there seems to be this assumption that only out of state residents actually book Disney resort rooms, which is far from the truth. I think there are enough Florida residents who book enough Disney resort rooms that Disney could feasibly open to those people only at first as a soft opening.
According to 2018 data - over 72% of hotel stays were booked by people more than 100 miles away from Walt Disney World...Yes Florida is much much bigger than 100 miles in length, but the point is locals, no matter how loyal and amazing, they just aren't the key demographic to the success of Walt Disney World having a successful reopening. You have to have confidence that the consumer will want to travel.
Can't post the link - but streelightdata is the source
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