Roy & Stanley comment

[Peter Pirate]

Rpy & Stanley have finally commented (see the Savedisney.com website).

The crux of their statement tells me that Comcast is not their ldea of the best change but that comments made by Comcast (Stephen Burke) highlight their POV & should be listened to by stockholders.

 

[KNWVIKING]

I'm would really like to know how Roy feels about a Comcast takeover. If it does happen, I wonder if he'll regret "savedisney.com" because of the possibility that his actions may have prompted Comcast to act or possible caused the stockholders to side with the merger rather then Eisner.

 

[manning]

Actually Eisner brought it on, over a long period of time!!

 

[airlarry!]

Vike:

I don't think one can scapegoat Roy as the reason ComCast is involved. Hasn't AV told us for nearly a year that ME was setting the company up for a big sellout with a big windfall for him?

Even if you never believed AV's premonitions, don't you find it unusual that Disney just happened to schedule the meeting in Philly, HQ for ComCast. Jim Hill doesn't think so. See Jim Hill mad at himself for not putting out scoop on Philly Plan

In fact, the big ME has not actually said that ComCast was not an option. Most of the press have been focusing on the price being too low, and I think ME, as one of the company's largest stockholders, has to like that kind of talk.

In fact, out of all the players here, it sure seems that Roy is the least responsible for a guy like Steve Burke looking the camera squarely in the eye and saying, "We can run Disney better than Disney can." Especially, when he's espousing ideas (I'm still in the wait-and-see mode myself) that fall right in line with the savedisney.com ideas.

 

[KNWVIKING]

I'm not trying to scapegoat Roy for any of this. I'm just curious if he feels this is all tumbling out of control. The talks between ME and Comcast may have been going on for awhile and if the numbers weren't right, they both walk away. But maybe Comcast was handed a gift by Roy when he walked away. Maybe the bad Pixar press is another little nugget for them. Maybe Comcast can get all the big stockholders thinking "Hmmmm...... maybe this isn't a bad idea". Maybe all the planets suddenly lined up for Comcast.

As for the Philly location: This gets complicated if it's nothing more then coincedence. Did Eisner plan the location knowing full well Comcast was going to make the announcement. Was a deal worked out long ago that suddenly went soar at the last minute ? My fear is that ME has a big chit eatin' grin on his face right now.

 

[BRERALEX]

taking a look at savedisney.com's big COMCAST banner at the top of the "full comcast/disney coverage link" seemed to me that they are indeed in favor of the takeover.

"Citing The Wizard of Oz, (Roy) Disney said: 'Remember when the witch was killed and the winged monkeys stood up and started singing The Witch is Dead? That's what happened in '84, and that's what will happen this time.'"

now thats funny

 

[Another Voice]

The basic "premonition" is that the only thing Roy did was to show Comcast that Eisner was no longer required to get a deal through. Eisner was holding out for a massive windfall, Comcast wanted to save money.

In deals of this size, it's generally impossible to get Wall Street to go along without the cooperation from the target company's Board. But when that Board can be shown to be working against the shareholder's best interest, it becomes part of the reationale for a hostile takeover.

Eisner brought this all on himself. In the deal in particular, his ego and greed prevent the deal from being closed on several occasions (according to the whispers). Comcast got tired of waiting.

And his prolonged mismanagment and consumption of the company has left Disney in this near-flatline state. If it wasn't Comcast, it was (and still may be) someone else.

 

[YoHo]

So Roy at least probably prompted comcast to act at least a little to further his own goals.

 

[KNWVIKING]

***"taking a look at savedisney.com's big COMCAST banner at the top of the "full comcast/disney coverage link" seemed to me that they are indeed in favor of the takeover.

"Citing The Wizard of Oz, (Roy) Disney said: 'Remember when the witch was killed and the winged monkeys stood up and started singing The Witch is Dead? That's what happened in '84, and that's what will happen this time.'"***

I don't know if his comment means he's in favor of a takeover. Back in '84 when a takeover was eminant, Roy - with the help of the Bass family - was able to prevent it. My interpretation of his comment is that it won't happen this time either.

AV, bottom line, do you think Roy is happy Comcast is stepping in the way they are and would he be happy if Comcast took over Disney so long as it meant ME was gone.

One side note: So far I've read nothing to lead me to believe ME will be out of a job.

 

[Luv2Roam]

One side note: So far I've read nothing to lead me to believe ME will be out of a job.

Just the opposite here. I have read nothing stating he will maintain his job.

 

[WDSearcher]

Originally posted by BRERALEX
"Citing The Wizard of Oz, (Roy) Disney said: 'Remember when the witch was killed and the winged monkeys stood up and started singing The Witch is Dead? That's what happened in '84, and that's what will happen this time.'"

The monkeys never sang. The Munchkins did. Roy, Roy, Roy ... get your analogies right!

 

[manning]

If this happens ME will think he has a job until one day he is suddenly shown the door.

More times than not the aquired company's CEO, if he remains, becomes a figurehead. He has lost all his power. Somewhere down the line (usually within a year) he is eased out. He is given a management job like the person in charge of making sure the garbage cans are clean.

 

[WDSearcher]

Originally posted by manning
He is given a management job like the person in charge of making sure the garbage cans are clean.

Based on other threads here, that would apparently be a much-needed and highly productive job ....

 

[Another Voice]

"AV, bottom line, do you think Roy is happy Comcast is stepping in the way they are and would he be happy if Comcast took over Disney so long as it meant ME was gone."

My educated gut feeling is that Roy is somewhat taken aback by Comcast's move.

This is turning out to be a bad season of 'Survivor'.

Little Roy was out trying to build an alliance to vote Naked Mike off the island, only to find that Survivor Steve (who Little Roy thought was already a part of his alliance) is talking to Stevie J. and Weird Bill about doing the same thing. So should Little Roy join in an alliance he can't control and risk being the guy to follow Naked Mike down the Path of Shame at Tribal Council, or does Survivor Roy form an alliance with Daughter Diane and Big-Time Barry?

And if Naked Mike wins immunity by drinking the cockroach and bat droppings smoothie (he's drunk a lot worse in the past, so he really could win), does Roy make nice with Naked Mike to vote out Survivor Steve now (and stab Naked Mike in the back later), or does Little Roy try to boot out Big-Time Barry before he can join Stevie J. in a super-alliance that leaves Little Roy outside?

This whole process has gotten away from Roy's ability to control; the moment Comcast raises its bid, it will slip from Eisner's ability to control. Worse, the moment another bidder emerges it will slip from Comcast's control. Roy Disney understands this and is probably struggling to figure out a way just to hang on.

 

[KNWVIKING]

..... or any other "Reality" show for that matter, I can't truely appriciate the wit in your post but I do understand the meaning. It's also the same gut feeling I have for Roy's position.

What I find interesting about all the additional take-over players out there getting on the bandwagon - Microsoft, Pixar, etc - is that why wasn't anyone doing this back in Sept '02 when the stock price was below $13.00 ? In reality, not a lot has happened within the company to make it more appealing now. Seems like back in '02 you could've gotten Disney at a bargain basement price.

 

[Another Voice]

It's simple.

Back in '02 Eisner had convinced the majority of Wall Street that no one could run the company better than Eisner did. So when the company got into trouble - the Street blamed external forces for all the woes. The only way to launch a take over would have been to thrown so much money – billions upon billions — at Wall Street they would have overlooked the loss of Eisner's "genius".

But now the sense that not is Eisner not the best person to run the company, but that he's part of the problem. If Roy did nothing else, he crystallized thoughts of a lot of people. Suddenly, Wall Street thinks there are a lot of people out there that can Disney better than Eisner.

Go and read the PowerPoint presentation that Comcast has on their website. They go to great lengths to show how much more money they can make from Disney be just bringing the performance of ABC and the cable networks closer to industry standard. Their argument is very clear – we can run the better Disney better than Naked Mike.

Back in '02 there weren't a lot of people who would have listened to that argument. Today there aren't a lot of people haven't already been convinced it's true.

 

[jcodespoti]

AV,

While I'll agree with you, how can they (comcast) prove that to the stock holders while the stock is rising? Eisner could point to the economy and say that was the reason for the slump. Granted its no excuse for the horrible showing for ABC (except when millionare was king, but thats a whole thread unto itself).


I don't think that comcast will have the power to buy Disney. Will somebody else? I think so.

The options on Disney are trading a lot higher indicating to me that this whole comcast deal is just the start of something bigger.

Joe in CT