Rope dropping is becoming a worse experience

[SleepDoctor]

TSMM has a 70 minute wait on what is the 5th least crowded week of the year? Wowza.

How many groupers/loaders are there?
Are they loading both sets of stations?
How many vehicles are on the attraction?
Did they just come back from a down time?

Wait times by themselves don't really say to much....except how long the current wait time is. Any implication to an extended wait time because of FP+ is quite the leap.

 

[AThrillingChase]

Just a little nugget to add some laughs...

When I was at DisneySea in Tokyo a year or two ago on a Tuesday in October they did not let anyone through the turnstiles until exactly 9am. We arrived early and finally got into the park at...9:30. lol. We could not read the signs CM's were holding in front of the turnstiles so we continued straight to TSMM, passing CM's with signs 1-2x more on the way. When we arrived the line was 4 hours long at 9:45. The CM's we saw were warning us that there were no FP left! It reached up to about 7 hour long wait during the day.

Pretty ridiculous. And I don't mean to discount the usual 1-2 hour waits for TSMM at HS, which are also awful! But I can say I never look at RD the same way since that fateful morning Oh TSMM, you cruel monster.

 

[wordwitt]

I realize it's the recommended strategy, it's why we always did it. My point is you are going to have to arrive earlier and earlier in order to be at the front of the line. The importance of early arrival will be even more important under the new FP+ regime. It's already happening as supported by in park reports from Silock.

While not discounting Silock's experience, or your own prognostications, the data does not seem to support the conclusion that anything has changed with regard to rope drop. The times now look remarkably similar to what they looked like before FP+. This has been true even during the busier times. Because there can be aberrations, the most accurate way to measure the impact of FP+ on RD wait times is to look at the wait times at each park IMO.

If you look at the mid-day times right now, however, SB lines are pretty bad.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

There has been virtually no change in the number of people at rope drop since FP+ started implementation. Which is to say, the courtyard in front of Magic Kingdom is always almost full by 8:45am. There are always a backup of 100 people per tapstile at Hollywood Studios by 8:45am etc. This may surprise those that are unfamiliar with Disney World crowds or haven't visited in some number of years. But that doesn't mean anything has changed.

These aren't new phenomenons and it was the same story in 2012, 2013, and now 2014. And that trend has continued through the first six weeks of this year. Arriving 45 minutes before park opening has always been the #1 best thing you can do to have a successful day. And it's always been the advice to beat the crowds and enjoy the attractions with short waits. It will remain that way because the vast, vast majority of people are unwilling or unable to arrive at the parks that early. And that isn't going to change with FP+ or whatever else Disney throws at it.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

TSMM has a 70 minute wait on what is the 5th least crowded week of the year? Wowza.

Toy Story has hit 60+ minutes every single day in 2014.

 

[FLchick415]

I was gonna say...TSMM hitting 70 minutes on ANY day of the year really doesn't surprise me.

 

[JRawkSteady]

Also, since rope drop is non-existent on its own for every park besides MK, it's been even more chaotic. It's almost as if everyone in the company forgot why they had Opening Ceremonies for all the parks in the first place.

 

[redrosesix]

You've said this many times, and I disagree with it every time.

Getting there early has always been the recommended strategy, and for as long as we have been visiting WDW (over 20 years now), the guidebooks have recommended arriving 30-45 minutes before the posted opening time.

As recently as the week between Christmas and New Year's when we visited, arriving 30-45 minutes before stated opening was plenty early and we were able to do as many things as ever when we entered. The marginal value of arriving an hour early, much less two hours, would probably mean getting through the turnstiles literally one minute sooner, if that.

Maybe the day will come when that 30-45 minute recommendation becomes an hour, but we aren't there now. But, I would bet you right now that getting there 2 hours early will not do much good. There simply are not enough people willing to do that just to get one more ride in.

Time will tell.

ITA with this Yes, be early. But even Pres Day wknd we didn't find much difference between being first in line and 200th in line. Somebody is going to run right over you with their stroller no matter what place you start at.

 

[Angel Ariel]

TSMM is also probably the reason that they would/did implement FP+ in DHS. The most frequent FP- complaints that I have heard from friends is that they were out of TSMM fast passes before they arrived in the parks. The same thing happens with Soarin'. The same thing will happen on the Mine Train when it opens, even with all of the other competing attractions in MK.

It stinks, but I think that they are danged if they do, danged if they don't, so to speak.

I don't think they would have been "danged" in any way if they'd built a second TSMM to help handle those crowds.

I mean, seriously...it really reflects poor ride capacity when you have to talk about when exactly the turnstiles opened, how far back you were from the turnstiles, and when exactly you arrived at the ride to avoid a 40min wait. Where TSMM is concerned, FP+ is like a small little plug in the dam that's about to burst...that park really needs more family friendly rides to help spread the crowds around a bit. Both FP systems can only do so much

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Also, since rope drop is non-existent on its own for every park besides MK, it's been even more chaotic. It's almost as if everyone in the company forgot why they had Opening Ceremonies for all the parks in the first place.

Reality is the exact opposite. Operations deemed the traditional "rope drop" dangerous because 1,000+ people were running, bumping, and trampling each other on their way to the major attractions. The lack of rope drop provides a much more comfortable, casual walk with plenty of space to the attraction of your choice with the tapstiles limiting the number of people that enter the park.

I have no idea what you mean when you say the current setup is chaotic.

 

[Silock]

There has been virtually no change in the number of people at rope drop since FP+ started implementation. Which is to say, the courtyard in front of Magic Kingdom is always almost full by 8:45am. There are always a backup of 100 people per tapstile at Hollywood Studios by 8:45am etc. This may surprise those that are unfamiliar with Disney World crowds or haven't visited in some number of years. But that doesn't mean anything has changed.

These aren't new phenomenons and it was the same story in 2012, 2013, and now 2014. And that trend has continued through the first six weeks of this year. Arriving 45 minutes before park opening has always been the #1 best thing you can do to have a successful day. And it's always been the advice to beat the crowds and enjoy the attractions with short waits. It will remain that way because the vast, vast majority of people are unwilling or unable to arrive at the parks that early. And that isn't going to change with FP+ or whatever else Disney throws at it.

Again this isn't exactly the issue. The issue is that before, many went straight to a FP machine. Now everyone goes straight to attractions.

 

[redrosesix]

While not discounting Silock's experience, or your own prognostications, the data does not seem to support the conclusion that anything has changed with regard to rope drop. The times now look remarkably similar to what they looked like before FP+. This has been true even during the busier times. Because there can be aberrations, the most accurate way to measure the impact of FP+ on RD wait times is to look at the wait times at each park IMO.

If you look at the mid-day times right now, however, SB lines are pretty bad.

Same number of people just walking on a different path? Or maybe same number of people with a lot who don't know where they should go first?

It's so complicated this time of year. It's raining this weekend but warm. Last year we had no rain but there was one morning I had to scrape ice off my windshield. But the parks were ridiculously crowded Pres Day wknd, maybe because nobody wanted to do water parks etc??

There is free dining this year -- free dining years always seem more crowded to us than ones where they block out that special for Pres Week.

I think it would take a very long time to really know what the effect is since there are so many variables to consider. But by that time just the discussion of crowd levels and fp+ benefits/problems is going to change the way people tour and the crowd levels themselves.

 

[stormtracker]

I have noticed that many people who claim RD is awful are saying things like "we were walking down main st at 9:05" or "through the turnstile at 9:05" at HS. If that is the case you aren't really doing RD, you missed it by 15 minutes. You are already behind.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

Again this isn't exactly the issue. The issue is that before, many went straight to a FP machine. Now everyone goes straight to attractions.

I disagree. A similar number of people head to the FastPass+ kiosks to book their reservations and it takes much longer to do that than it did to pull legacy FASTPASSes.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I have noticed that many people who claim RD is awful are saying things like "we were walking down main st at 9:05" or "through the turnstile at 9:05" at HS. If that is the case you aren't really doing RD, you missed it by 15 minutes. You are already behind.

The OP stated he was at DHS when they began letting people through the turnstiles, and that they did not start letting people through until 9am.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

And even if that weren't true (it is), collecting legacy paper FASTPASSes took all of a minute at most, even at Toy Story Mania, Soarin, or Test Track with how they open the parks. That one minute delay that's now gone is not going to put more than a handful of people in front of you that wouldn't have been there before.

 

[redrosesix]

How many groupers/loaders are there?
Are they loading both sets of stations?
How many vehicles are on the attraction?
Did they just come back from a down time?

Wait times by themselves don't really say to much....except how long the current wait time is. Any implication to an extended wait time because of FP+ is quite the leap.

I really thought with FP+ they'd be able to get this figured out ahead of time to make sure they had the right capacity to handle the crowds But probably there are things like TSMM that need to be at full capacity at all times.

Personally, I would do any rides I really enjoyed but couldn't get a fp for as early in the day as possible.

 

[stormtracker]

The OP stated he was at DHS when they began letting people through the turnstiles, and that they did not start letting people through until 9am.

Actually OP said they arrived at TSMM at 9:10 which is not ideal. It doesn't really matter in this case, the ride was down. I was at HS two weeks ago, 5th family behind the turnstile. We got off TSMM at 8:58 at were on our way to RNR and waited about 10 minutes to ride it.

 

[wordwitt]

Same number of people just walking on a different path? Or maybe same number of people with a lot who don't know where they should go first?

It's so complicated this time of year. It's raining this weekend but warm. Last year we had no rain but there was one morning I had to scrape ice off my windshield. But the parks were ridiculously crowded Pres Day wknd, maybe because nobody wanted to do water parks etc??

There is free dining this year -- free dining years always seem more crowded to us than ones where they block out that special for Pres Week.

I think it would take a very long time to really know what the effect is since there are so many variables to consider. But by that time just the discussion of crowd levels and fp+ benefits/problems is going to change the way people tour and the crowd levels themselves.

I think I'm not quite understanding what you're getting at here. When I look at wait times on MDE in the first hour or so after opening at any park I am seeing very reasonable times. And the times I'm seeing aren't that much different on average than what we've seen before FP+. I'm not sure why it will take a "long time" to see the effects of FP+. When it comes to RD, which was the question here, it hasn't seemed to impact wait times much. Maybe Josh can verify this as he tracks the data more closely than I, but I'm not seeing cause for doom and gloom with respect to the RD touring strategy. Now I say this realizing it is entirely possible that on any given day any given individual (like Silock or Lugnut) may experience longer wait times at RD than they are used to or were expecting.

 

[notfrostyjosh]

The title of this thread should probably be "If Toy Story Mania is down at rope drop or you don't arrive until 9:10am, you're going to have a bad time."

That's absolutely true. If the attraction is down at rope drop, you only have more and more people arriving with FP+ priority, pushing up standby waits significantly the moment the ride opens. If Toy Story is down at rope drop, you're not going to ride with a short standby wait until the late evening.

Hollywood Studios also routinely opens at 8:45am. If you're not there by 8:15am, you're late. That was true prior to FP+ being a thing. Nothing has changed on that front. And the same amount of people are there now at 8:15am than there were before FP+ was implemented.