ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Jenglish13]

Here's the numbers:

150 Points @ BCV		$275 PP (Direct)	$120 PP (Resale 1)	Rental @ $20 PP		Opportunity Cost (Direct)	Opportunity Cost (Resale @ $120)		investing & renting instead of direct	investing & renting instead of resale @ $120)
Purchase Cost:		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​	$0.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​
Dues/Rents: 2023		$1,225.50​	$1,225.50​	$3,000.00​		$44,343.75​	$19,350.00​		$42,569.25​	$17,575.500​
2024​		$1,274.52​	$1,274.52​	$3,000.00​		$47,669.53​	$20,801.25​		$44,036.46​	$17,168.18​
2025​		$1,325.50​	$1,325.50​	$3,000.00​		$51,244.75​	$22,361.34​		$45,664.70​	$16,781.30​
2026​		$1,378.52​	$1,378.52​	$3,000.00​		$55,088.10​	$24,038.44​		$47,468.07​	$16,418.42​
2027​		$1,433.66​	$1,433.66​	$3,000.00​		$59,219.71​	$25,841.33​		$49,461.84​	$16,083.46​
2028​		$1,491.01​	$1,491.01​	$3,000.00​		$63,661.19​	$27,779.43​		$51,662.49​	$15,780.73​
2029​		$1,550.65​	$1,550.65​	$3,000.00​		$68,435.78​	$29,862.88​		$54,087.82​	$15,514.93​
2030​		$1,612.67​	$1,612.67​	$3,000.00​		$73,568.46​	$32,102.60​		$56,757.08​	$15,291.22​
2031​		$1,677.18​	$1,677.18​	$3,000.00​		$79,086.09​	$34,510.30​		$59,691.04​	$15,115.25​
2032​		$1,744.27​	$1,744.27​	$3,000.00​		$85,017.55​	$37,098.57​		$62,912.14​	$14,993.16​
2033​		$1,814.04​	$1,814.04​	$3,000.00​		$91,393.87​	$39,880.96​		$66,444.59​	$14,931.68​
2034​		$1,886.60​	$1,886.60​	$3,000.00​		$98,248.41​	$42,872.03​		$70,314.54​	$14,938.16​
2035​		$1,962.06​	$1,962.06​	$3,000.00​		$105,617.04​	$46,087.44​		$74,550.19​	$15,020.59​
2036​		$2,040.55​	$2,040.55​	$3,000.00​		$113,538.32​	$49,543.99​		$79,182.00​	$15,187.68​
2037​		$2,122.17​	$2,122.17​	$3,000.00​		$122,053.69​	$53,259.79​		$84,242.82​	$15,448.92​
2038​		$2,207.06​	$2,207.06​	$3,000.00​		$131,207.72​	$57,254.28​		$89,768.09​	$15,814.65​
2039​		$2,295.34​	$2,295.34​	$3,000.00​		$141,048.30​	$61,548.35​		$95,796.04​	$16,296.09​
2040​		$2,387.15​	$2,387.15​	$3,000.00​		$151,626.92​	$66,164.47​		$102,367.89​	$16,905.45​
2041​		$2,482.64​	$2,482.64​	$3,000.00​		$162,998.94​	$71,126.81​		$109,528.12​	$17,655.99​
2042​		$2,581.94​	$2,581.94​	$3,000.00​		$175,223.86​	$76,461.32​		$117,324.67​	$18,562.14​
Total Dues/Rents:		$36,493.04​	$36,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Total Cost:		$77,743.04​	$54,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Cost Per Year:		$3,887.15​	$2,724.65​	$3,000.00​

 

[aceshigh73]

Interesting data. Shows the power of compounding interest and returns! This is why borrowing money at 10% to pay for DVC is a fools game. Especially at today's prices.

I recently watched DVCfan's youtube video with DVCMilennial about how she "broke even" with DVC so early because she bought when she was out of college. There was definitely some "fuzzy math" because she was staying in 1 and 2 bedroom units by the 2nd and 3rd year with family she had no financial obligation to pay for (and wouldnt if she was paying cash) while also borrowing pts from future UY's. She also has been paying interest on this $$. Couldnt help to think what she could have had as a nestegg in the future if she invested all this money at her young age in lieu of blowing it on DVC vacations while paying interest.
Granted, she might be monetizing it with her social media... but you cant argue with time and compounding returns!!!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Interesting data. Shows the power of compounding interest and returns! This is why borrowing money at 10% to pay for DVC is a fools game. Especially at today's prices.

I recently watched DVCfan's youtube video with DVCMilennial about how she "broke even" with DVC so early because she bought when she was out of college. There was definitely some "fuzzy math" because she was staying in 1 and 2 bedroom units by the 2nd and 3rd year with family she had no financial obligation to pay for (and wouldnt if she was paying cash) while also borrowing pts from future UY's. She also has been paying interest on this $$. Couldnt help to think what she could have had as a nestegg in the future if she invested all this money at her young age in lieu of blowing it on DVC vacations while paying interest.
Granted, she might be monetizing it with her social media... but you cant argue with time and compounding returns!!!

Her math wasn't fuzzy. It was inaccurate. Her comparison was against full rack rate, which nobody hardly ever pays. She also didn't account for annual dues. The episode reeked of the sponsor needing to push more sales to the next millennial generation, since they're probably running out of potential buyers from Gen X and prior.

 

[Cybertruck]

Here's the numbers:

Love the view. Another spreadsheet Geek (hopefully that does not offend you)! Just one note the resort ends on January 31st 2042.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Here's the numbers:

150 Points @ BCV		$275 PP (Direct)	$120 PP (Resale 1)	Rental @ $20 PP		Opportunity Cost (Direct)	Opportunity Cost (Resale @ $120)		investing & renting instead of direct	investing & renting instead of resale @ $120)
Purchase Cost:		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​	$0.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​		$41,250.00​	$18,000.00​
Dues/Rents: 2023		$1,225.50​	$1,225.50​	$3,000.00​		$44,343.75​	$19,350.00​		$42,569.25​	$17,575.500​
2024​		$1,274.52​	$1,274.52​	$3,000.00​		$47,669.53​	$20,801.25​		$44,036.46​	$17,168.18​
2025​		$1,325.50​	$1,325.50​	$3,000.00​		$51,244.75​	$22,361.34​		$45,664.70​	$16,781.30​
2026​		$1,378.52​	$1,378.52​	$3,000.00​		$55,088.10​	$24,038.44​		$47,468.07​	$16,418.42​
2027​		$1,433.66​	$1,433.66​	$3,000.00​		$59,219.71​	$25,841.33​		$49,461.84​	$16,083.46​
2028​		$1,491.01​	$1,491.01​	$3,000.00​		$63,661.19​	$27,779.43​		$51,662.49​	$15,780.73​
2029​		$1,550.65​	$1,550.65​	$3,000.00​		$68,435.78​	$29,862.88​		$54,087.82​	$15,514.93​
2030​		$1,612.67​	$1,612.67​	$3,000.00​		$73,568.46​	$32,102.60​		$56,757.08​	$15,291.22​
2031​		$1,677.18​	$1,677.18​	$3,000.00​		$79,086.09​	$34,510.30​		$59,691.04​	$15,115.25​
2032​		$1,744.27​	$1,744.27​	$3,000.00​		$85,017.55​	$37,098.57​		$62,912.14​	$14,993.16​
2033​		$1,814.04​	$1,814.04​	$3,000.00​		$91,393.87​	$39,880.96​		$66,444.59​	$14,931.68​
2034​		$1,886.60​	$1,886.60​	$3,000.00​		$98,248.41​	$42,872.03​		$70,314.54​	$14,938.16​
2035​		$1,962.06​	$1,962.06​	$3,000.00​		$105,617.04​	$46,087.44​		$74,550.19​	$15,020.59​
2036​		$2,040.55​	$2,040.55​	$3,000.00​		$113,538.32​	$49,543.99​		$79,182.00​	$15,187.68​
2037​		$2,122.17​	$2,122.17​	$3,000.00​		$122,053.69​	$53,259.79​		$84,242.82​	$15,448.92​
2038​		$2,207.06​	$2,207.06​	$3,000.00​		$131,207.72​	$57,254.28​		$89,768.09​	$15,814.65​
2039​		$2,295.34​	$2,295.34​	$3,000.00​		$141,048.30​	$61,548.35​		$95,796.04​	$16,296.09​
2040​		$2,387.15​	$2,387.15​	$3,000.00​		$151,626.92​	$66,164.47​		$102,367.89​	$16,905.45​
2041​		$2,482.64​	$2,482.64​	$3,000.00​		$162,998.94​	$71,126.81​		$109,528.12​	$17,655.99​
2042​		$2,581.94​	$2,581.94​	$3,000.00​		$175,223.86​	$76,461.32​		$117,324.67​	$18,562.14​
Total Dues/Rents:		$36,493.04​	$36,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Total Cost:		$77,743.04​	$54,493.04​	$60,000.00​
Cost Per Year:		$3,887.15​	$2,724.65​	$3,000.00​

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp, might be possible if someone snags a reservation during the 7months windows, but luckily most BCV owners value their points higher than that. On Facebook most, but not all rent for something like $24-$25 pp for BWV and BCV points.


Also I've seen a lot of people here, posting their own math around buying or not buying. In reality you can get the numbers to show you anything you like. It doesn't mean that what they show Is wrong, but it's also doesn't mean that it's correct.

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp, might be possible if someone snags a reservation during the 7months windows, but luckily most BCV owners value their points higher than that. On Facebook most, but not all rent for something like $24-$25 pp for BWV and BCV points.


Also I've seen a lot of people here, posting their own math around buying or not buying. In reality you can get the numbers to show you anything you like. It doesn't mean that what they show Is wrong, but it's also doesn't mean that it's correct.

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

I agree. Timeshare is not a financial investment but an emotional one for the family. And no BCV owner in their right minds will rent out their points for $20pp. BCV is unique because it's so small. Similar to Grand Cal. The only other solution is to try to book at 7 months during low demand seasons like August, which no one likes to go because of the weather, which is fine by me because I love being able to book there using my SAP!

 

[DanCali]

Here's the numbers:

I can't comment if $20/point is realistic today for BCV but your spreadsheet definitely is biased towards renting because (i) you assume that if you own then your dues increase at 4%, (ii) You assume that if you keep your money invested you make 7.5% in opportunity cost, but (iii) you assume that if you rent today at $20/point, you can still rent at $20/point for the next ~20 years. Keep in mind that the 2040 dues of ~$2400 are $16/point, so why would someone rent their points for $20?

In order to be more conservative, try an opportunity cost of 4.5%, and assume that your rental cost increases by 4% per year. Nobody knows that the stock market will do but the opportunity cost of 4.5% reflects a 20-year treasury bond that you can buy today and hold to maturity, just like you might do with the DVC points. I think you will find that these changes make rental somewhat less attractive.

 

[HouseParty]

House Party---$100-$22267-200-SSR-Feb-0/22, 376/23, 200/24- sent 7/21

House Party---$100-$22267-200-SSR-Feb-0/22, 376/23, 200/24- sent 7/21, passed 8/14

 

[DanCali]

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

This is 100% true. But the vacation time together is still available whether you buy at BCV or CCV or PVB or RIV (ignoring restrictions). But one of those options is only good till 2042 while the others would arguably have substantial residual value in 2042 because they are good for another ~25+ years. The intangibles of timesharing don't go away necessarily just because you buy a more "economical" (not necessarily inferior) resort.

 

[Cyberc1978]

In order to be more conservative, try an opportunity cost of 4.5%, and assume that your rental cost increases by 4% per year. Nobody knows that the stock market will do but the opportunity cost of 4.5% reflects a 20-year treasury bond that you can buy today and hold to maturity, just like you might do with the DVC points. I think you will find that these changes make rental somewhat less attractive.

Why is that MOST assumes investing in the stock market is a good idea or will always make you 4-10% annually?

A lot of people lose money on the market everyday and some make money everyday. WHAT makes you so sure that you will be the one to make money EVERY year instead of losing them?

 

[Cybertruck]

Agree it is an investment in my family which is Priceless. But I am wired to always look at the opportunity costs. When I invested in resale all those years ago the one thing I told myself if the family had no desire to go to Disney ever again I could likely sale my resale SSR SAP points for more then I paid for them or at least break even. Even this current market I would make a profit which is dream come true. Back then renting was not in the picture because I did not know about it (or least I did not build into my spreadsheets, brain cells do not remember back that far).

Fast forward today now that we are locals, I actually need more points. We are making more trips. With the kids in the real world, it is not uncommon for them to say I like to come visit you (which really means I want to visit the happiest place on earth). Which is truly priceless.

 

[Cyberc1978]

This is 100% true. But the vacation time together is still available whether you buy at BCV or CCV or PVB or RIV (ignoring restrictions). But one of those options is only good till 2042 while the others would arguably have substantial residual value in 2042 because they are good for another ~25+ years. The intangibles of timesharing don't go away necessarily just because you buy a more "economical" (not necessarily inferior) resort.

You are right, but another one of the intangibles is wouldn't you prefer to have 18 years of great vacations because you stay at you and your family's favorite place instead of potential 25 years of just okay vacations?

My point is that you can create all the fancy spreadsheets you want but they can't take everything into account and you can get them som show anything you like.

 

[DanCali]

Why is that MOST assumes investing in the stock market is a good idea or will always make you 4-10% annually?

A lot of people lose money on the market everyday and some make money everyday. WHAT makes you so sure that you will be the one to make money EVERY year instead of losing them?

Regarding the stock market - historically, the market has had an average return of 7%+ per year. Average return does mean you win some years, and you lose some years, but if you stayed invested and didn't try to time entries and exits, you would have realized that return. Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of what may happen in the future...

But I actually said to use 4.5% because that is the yield on a 20-year bond. I specifically said nobody knows what the stock market will do and therefore the 7.5% in the spreadsheet is too speculative and biases the analysis toward the rent conclusion.

The bond return is more realizable - buy it today and hold it to maturity and you will make 4.5% annualized. The only risk is that the US government defaults on its debt - which, could happen...

 

[grahf1234]

Good luck renting BCV for $20 pp, might be possible if someone snags a reservation during the 7months windows, but luckily most BCV owners value their points higher than that. On Facebook most, but not all rent for something like $24-$25 pp for BWV and BCV points.


Also I've seen a lot of people here, posting their own math around buying or not buying. In reality you can get the numbers to show you anything you like. It doesn't mean that what they show Is wrong, but it's also doesn't mean that it's correct.

For me timesharing is an investment, not only financially because I save money on future vacations, but mostly an investment in my family's vacation time TOGETHER. I never seen anyone put a value on that, but I guess that's just as difficult as predicting anything else.

Don’t know, been renting mostly bwv but also one time bcv from the top two rent brokers for the last few years. Never paid more than $21 for either. They make it pretty easy and fairly painless.

I know it’s much better mathematically to continue renting, since breaking even for me even without considering opportunity cost is about 11 years when assuming dues and point rentals will both increase at a 4% annually. I’d assume it’s even more than 11 years since looking at old rental rates the increases seem to a bit lower than 4% annually. Adding any investment alternatives to the initial cash and then there’s no breaking even for me.

I definitely get the ownership part and how special it must feel to have one’s own membership and ability to tinker with it without needing some third party to do it.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Why is that MOST assumes investing in the stock market is a good idea or will always make you 4-10% annually?

A lot of people lose money on the market everyday and some make money everyday. WHAT makes you so sure that you will be the one to make money EVERY year instead of losing them?

Trading is not investing. The long term average for a diversified stock index is 6% above inflation in the US and 5% above inflation outside of the US. I see no reason that would not be the average over most 20 years periods. Now, a single day or year…. I have no idea what will happen. In fact, I would be surprised if stocks didn’t go down 10% almost every year, 20% every 3-4 years, and 30-50% every 8-10 years.

That being said, I do not think of DVC as financial investment. It’s a sunk cost that obligates me to pay dues every year for the right to go to properties that I love, but am too cheap to pay cash for. I am making a leap of faith that Disney will maintain the “magic” of the property and surrounding areas so that my loved ones and I will enjoy going for many years into the future.

I also like the observation that it takes me from a “scarcity mindset” to an “abundance mindset”. Instead of “can we afford to stay there”, the conversation is about “when can we go back.”

 

[Cyberc1978]

Regarding the stock market - historically, the market has had an average return of 7%+ per year. Average return does mean you win some years, and you lose some years, but if you stayed invested and didn't try to time entries and exits, you would have realized that return. Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of what may happen in the future...

But I actually said to use 4.5% because that is the yield on a 20-year bond. I specifically said nobody knows what the market will do and therefore the 7.5% in the spreadsheet is too speculative and biases the analysis toward the rent conclusion.

The bond return is more realizable - buy it today and hold it to maturity and you will make 4.5%. The only risk is that the US government defaults on its debt - which, could happen...

Exactly past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Instead of using a spreadsheet to convince you, buy if it feels right and don't if it doesn't

By using a spreadsheet you are actually just hiding behind the numbers which you decides what will show.

 

[Sandisw]

Let’s get this thread back on track to ROFR. People can start other threads to discuss aspects of buying!!

 

[DanCali]

Exactly past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Instead of using a spreadsheet to convince you, buy if it feels right and don't if it doesn't

By using a spreadsheet you are actually just hiding behind the numbers which you decides what will show.

When you don't use a spreadsheet you often make mistakes based on emotion. This is especially true with timeshares and more so outside of the DVC bubble where if you sit in one of those 90-minute higher pressure presentations you will be very tempted to buy before you leave. Just search for "should I rescind site:tugbbs.com" and see how many hits you get from the lucky ones who found tug in time.

Nobody really needs a spreadsheet to conclude that spending $130 on a 2042 resort is a lot less economical than spending $130 on a 2065+ resort. That doesn't mean people shouldn't do it. In fact, I wouldn't rule it out myself because I can't argue with supply and demand - it's worth what people will pay for it. But, financially speaking only, 2042 resorts are an inferior proposition at prevailing prices compared to the others.

 

[tom1944]

I wanted the "forced commitment" so my wife and I made taking vacations a priority.

I added my daughter as one owner because she never passes up taking vacations.

 

[npatellye]

npatellye---$70-$12472-150-OKW-Apr-0/22, 170/23, 150/24, 150/25- sent 7/20

This all started because DH suggested adding on at AKL. Then it turned into me saying 2042 makes more sense for us since we just needed a few extra to get us through the kids being young.

npatellye---$70-$12472-150-OKW-Apr-0/22, 170/23, 150/24, 150/25- sent 7/20, passed 8/14

We plan to hold this to the bitter end so I’m not worried about it being a 2042. The end date is perfect for us because that’s approximately when we anticipate needing fewer points (kids will be 28 and 26 at the end of 2041) and our 2057 and 2070 points should suffice for that.