ROFR Thread July to Sept 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

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Johtull12 said:
Just an opinion but I'd blame VGF on bad market timing at launch and the type of (hotel) rooms being offered at BPK. Additionally all the added points to that deed will make the better legacy rooms harder to get at the 11 month mark. Poly isn't here yet but again the drop in prices for existing inventory seems top be market conditions. DVCResale use to average 250-400 listings and currently they are at 650 and growing. In theory the new Poly Tower (like a possible BLT2) when it does go on sale should make the price of existing contracts go up, given they are on same deed. The direct price, likely will be more than they currently are so buying resale and having access to a brand new resort at a steep discount makes sense. Disney sells BLT now for $265 they are ROFRing as high as $173 lately. I guess it could just be a quick flip too. A new BLT2 in 2 years would probably be $300 or more and would almost have to have more infrastructure included like new restaurants, shops...etc. I don't think the Contemporary could support another stand alone tower.
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No one knows the condo association status of Poly 2. And I don’t know where this speculation of BLT2 is coming from. All I’m saying is, there is no reason to believe that a new BLT would cause Disney to exercise ROFR or the price to go up. VGF set the precedent. VGF was $255 direct prior to VGF2. When it started selling, the direct base price dropped to $207 and no ROFR since.
 
Johtull12 said:
Just an opinion but I'd blame VGF on bad market timing at launch and the type of (hotel) rooms being offered at BPK. Additionally all the added points to that deed will make the better legacy rooms harder to get at the 11 month mark. Poly isn't here yet but again the drop in prices for existing inventory seems top be market conditions. DVCResale use to average 250-400 listings and currently they are at 650 and growing. In theory the new Poly Tower (like a possible BLT2) when it does go on sale should make the price of existing contracts go up, given they are on same deed. The direct price, likely will be more than they currently are so buying resale and having access to a brand new resort at a steep discount makes sense. Disney sells BLT now for $265 they are ROFRing as high as $173 lately. I guess it could just be a quick flip too. A new BLT2 in 2 years would probably be $300 or more and would almost have to have more infrastructure included like new restaurants, shops...etc. I don't think the Contemporary could support another stand alone tower.
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What time frame was the average 250-400 listings for DVCResale (assuming you mean dvcresalemarket)?

I've heard a lot of people in the past few months mention the listings are increasing, but the total number of overall listings have actually decreased since the beginning of summer by a few hundred. I'm guessing these people are referring to specific resorts I'm not following, I've just been looking at the overall trend as well as poly (since I plan to purchase more points there).

I know in 2020 the available listings dropped drastically, and I don't have any data prior to that since I wasn't really paying attention to the market. I'm wondering if you have been watching prior to 2020 and if the norm has always been 250-400, or if prior to 2020 it used to be higher? Just curious.
 
lovethesun12 said:
What time frame was the average 250-400 listings for DVCResale (assuming you mean dvcresalemarket)?

I've heard a lot of people in the past few months mention the listings are increasing, but the total number of overall listings have actually decreased since the beginning of summer by a few hundred. I'm guessing these people are referring to specific resorts I'm not following, I've just been looking at the overall trend as well as poly (since I plan to purchase more points there).

I know in 2020 the available listings dropped drastically, and I don't have any data prior to that since I wasn't really paying attention to the market. I'm wondering if you have been watching prior to 2020 and if the norm has always been 250-400, or if prior to 2020 it used to be higher? Just curious.
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I’m curious as well since DVC resale market is only showing 400 listings currently, not 650 as what PP suggests.
 
Unclelude said:
I would ... I'm in the middle of my own little horror story... I checked in at 30 days and it turned out something got screwed up and my offer never got sent. Reset to zero... I'm pushing 20(50) days now... I know this has to be super uncommon, but worth a check in.

It would be cool if there was a status widget, like when you order a dominos pizza ... "offer received -> randomizing order -> analyzing -> wait more -> ROFR!"
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What broker was this?
 
geargrinder said:
Was on FB this morning. Seen a couple $130 AKL's pass today. Perhaps the AKL bloodbath is letting up.
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Goodness, I hope so! We closed last week on two 40 point AKV's we bought at $140 PP (delayed closing) and I sent a 50 point OKWE for $127 to ROFR last week.

Both our flights for November dropped (got back about 30,000 SWA points) and rental car for three weeks (dropped by 50%) are way cheaper out of TPA. I take that as a sign that travel is slowing down though it may take a bit to creep over to MCO. Regardless of Disney's hype, they too are staring at a black hole in the economy...it's there, we can all see it but we just don't know how deep it is yet.

With any luck, the ROFR machine will back off and with it, a price drop (fingers crossed) closing in on MF's in January. JMHO. :shamrock:
 
MICKIMINI said:
Goodness, I hope so! We closed last week on two 40 point AKV's we bought at $140 PP (delayed closing) and I sent a 50 point OKWE for $127 to ROFR last week.

Both our flights for November dropped (got back about 30,000 SWA points) and rental car for three weeks (dropped by 50%) are way cheaper out of TPA. I take that as a sign that travel is slowing down though it may take a bit to creep over to MCO. Regardless of Disney's hype, they too are staring at a black hole in the economy...it's there, we can all see it but we just don't know how deep it is yet.

With any luck, the ROFR machine will back off and with it, a price drop (fingers crossed) closing in on MF's in January. JMHO. :shamrock:
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Interesting with the flights. I had to book flights somewhere last June because our credit from 2020 would expire so I chose MCO for 2023 (you'll never guess where I plan to visit, lol). I just checked the same flights yesterday (considering adding a day) and the price had exactly doubled since I bought them!!!!

Possible we're still in the "revenge" travel stages though since final international restrictions (testing prior to flying) was only lifted a few months ago.
 
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