ROFR Thread January to March 2025 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[matt_in_nh]

What? The DVCRM report is based on the actual price that contracts sold…. not on what the contracts that were sold were listed for….

Really? It looks like the number are super close to the listing price to me and far away from what the ROFR thread shows. I definitely made an assumption so if I am wrong I apologize. These numbers are just for DVCRM? I guess the explanation is people in the ROFR thread find better deals elsewhere? Using BLT for instance, the last quarter ROFR is around $122 self reported. the DVCRM report says $133 and the listing prices right now per point is $136.

 

[Brian Noble]

It looks like the number are super close to the listing price to me and far away from what the ROFR thread shows.

That's because the market is a range, the ROFR thread is the low end of that range, while the broker with the largest advertising presence is probably able to live higher in the range.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Really? It looks like the number are super close to the listing price to me and far away from what the ROFR thread shows. I definitely made an assumption so if I am wrong I apologize. These numbers are just for DVCRM? I guess the explanation is people in the ROFR thread find better deals elsewhere? Using BLT for instance, the last quarter ROFR is around $122 self reported. the DVCRM report says $133 and the listing prices right now per point is $136.

Yes, 100% it’s based on the actual sale price and not the listing price.

The ROFR thread is definitely NOT representative of the average prices people are paying. It is partly because of a more educated buyer base and partly an internet brag board.

 

[darkconz]

In the fall there was one with a $113 asking. I was probably a hour too late to get it.

That contract was gone within 15 minutes. I put in an offer about 15 minutes seeing it and was told it was sold.

 

[juliebee]

Does anyone know, if a listing is sold very quickly, does it even hit the https://www.dvcforless.com/ radar?

 

[pzw90]

Does anyone know, if a listing is sold very quickly, does it even hit the https://www.dvcforless.com/ radar?

@rferrar1 could probably answer that, its his page

 

[macman123]

macman123---$135-$20940-150-CCV-Aug-41/24, 281/25, 150/26, sent

Not as good as the deal I had before, but still a pretty good price

 

[matt_in_nh]

That's because the market is a range, the ROFR thread is the low end of that range, while the broker with the largest advertising presence is probably able to live higher in the range.

Ok sure. Is there a source with data from the whole market? It’s all publically available right? Surprised no one has pulled that together.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok sure. Is there a source with data from the whole market? It’s all publically available right? Surprised no one has pulled that together.

There is not. Not all resale brokers even publish their own. AFAIK, it’s DVCRM and Fidelity only.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Ok sure. Is there a source with data from the whole market? It’s all publically available right? Surprised no one has pulled that together.

A database was started on the dvcrofr.com website, but don’t think it was ever completed for all the resorts. @Galactic Reversal and a couple of others were pulling the info together but it was pretty time consuming.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Ok sure. Is there a source with data from the whole market? It’s all publically available right? Surprised no one has pulled that together.

A lot of it can be deduced from publicly available data— deeds are publicly recorded in FL and I believe there’s a way to generally calculate purchase price from transfer tax (?) but it may also be complicated by foreclosures and other variables…when I was buying VGF resale years ago, looking at individual deeds did allow me to calculate what the price per point was in most cases but you had no way of knowing if they were loaded or stripped.

 

[ChipTheRescueRanger]

macman123---$135-$20940-150-CCV-Aug-41/24, 281/25, 150/26, sent

Not as good as the deal I had before, but still a pretty good price

Congrats

I’m glad that ones finally gone. As I offered on it when it first came to market got an attractive counter but just a little out of reach for me

But been teasing me all week still being on the market

 

[Blerghityblergh]

Ok sure. Is there a source with data from the whole market? It’s all publically available right? Surprised no one has pulled that together.

There was a guy on here (Tom username?) who was compiling a bunch of data from the controller site but it seems to be hugely time consuming. He shared as he had it which was awesome but I don’t think it’s easy to do.

 

[matt_in_nh]

There was a guy on here (Tom username?) who was compiling a bunch of data from the controller site but it seems to be hugely time consuming. He shared as he had it which was awesome but I don’t think it’s easy to do.

I would think someone could make a scraper of some sort....interesting there is no one good source. For me this thread and its history is the best of what I know about.

 

[jkhd]

jkhd---$90-$23201-225-SSR-Mar-0/24, 450/25, 225/26, 225/27- sent 2/10

 

[ah10is]

ah10is---$127-$13529-100-CCV@WL-Apr-0/24, 0/25, 100/26- sent 2/10

 

[atthebeachclub]

After many many months (6+; I got snaked a few times) of watching, the exact contract I was looking for in my use year hit the market.

Made an offer; will update later.

 

[jason423]

A lot of it can be deduced from publicly available data— deeds are publicly recorded in FL and I believe there’s a way to generally calculate purchase price from transfer tax (?) but it may also be complicated by foreclosures and other variables…when I was buying VGF resale years ago, looking at individual deeds did allow me to calculate what the price per point was in most cases but you had no way of knowing if they were loaded or stripped.

Yes that is how you do it but a lot of it is manual and the site now times you out during the searches. It is easy enough to get back in but becomes more trouble than its worth if trying to do it on a large scale. Generally if Im in the market I will usually pull the last 3 to 4 weeks of data for a particular resort. Normally you can weed out the foreclosures easily enough. Figuring out if it is stripped or loaded is near impossible. Once in awhile you may see something that mentions available points but its not universal. Overall I am not sure if that makes much of a difference since so many seem to overvalue a stripped contract and undervalue a loaded one but for more savvy buyers it certainly does.

For the resorts Ive looked at in the past I would say that as a rule of thumb https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/ average resale price report generally matches the median resale price for contracts over 100 points. The https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ report is more like a quartile 3 kind of number, representing the higher end of resale prices. The ROFR reports here more or less are representative of the top 25% of all purchases and are not deals that are going to be easy to get.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Yes that is how you do it but a lot of it is manual and the site now times you out during the searches. It is easy enough to get back in but becomes more trouble than its worth if trying to do it on a large scale. Generally if Im in the market I will usually pull the last 3 to 4 weeks of data for a particular resort. Normally you can weed out the foreclosures easily enough. Figuring out if it is stripped or loaded is near impossible. Once in awhile you may see something that mentions available points but its not universal. Overall I am not sure if that makes much of a difference since so many seem to overvalue a stripped contract and undervalue a loaded one but for more savvy buyers it certainly does.

For the resorts Ive looked at in the past I would say that as a rule of thumb https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/ average resale price report generally matches the median resale price for contracts over 100 points. The https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ report is more like a quartile 3 kind of number, representing the higher end of resale prices. The ROFR reports here more or less are representative of the top 25% of all purchases and are not deals that are going to be easy to get.

This is generally close to how I would describe it as well: Fidelity reported price is approximately median for market, DVCRM is top 1/3 of pricing and the best prices on ROFR are probably lowest 10% (though some prices reported stretch up beyond median, the average price reported is probably bottom 1/3 of all purchases).

The main thing I’d advise caution on is that a few of the resorts have so few points sold each month lately that one or two contracts can really skew the reported numbers.

 

[disneylandtour]

This is generally close to how I would describe it as well: Fidelity reported price is approximately median for market, DVCRM is top 1/3 of pricing and the best prices on ROFR are probably lowest 10% (though some prices reported stretch up beyond median, the average price reported is probably bottom 1/3 of all purchases).

The main thing I’d advise caution on is that a few of the resorts have so few points sold each month lately that one or two contracts can really skew the reported numbers.

I might add to this to suggest that the www.fidelityrealestate.com "ASKING" price is in the middle. But this is one of the brokers from which a good deal of the better "FINAL" prices come from on the ROFR list. I know brokers aren't on the ROFR info, but I've followed purchasing enough to spot various contracts when they disappear from a broker's inventory and then show up on the list, when bought by a member here.