ROFR Thread January to March 2025 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

I’m curious to hear everyone’s thoughts on how we should value current and next-year points. Should we base it on the average dollar value they fetch on the rental market (around $16–$18), or would a different approach make more sense?
Coincidentally, I'm working on a post/analysis that tries to put a non-renting value on loaded/stripped points for exactly this question...
 
I'm not sure the nominal worth-of-a-point (should) change based on how you use the points. Instead, I think one should consider some uses "better values" and others "worse values." Otherwise, the points aren't comparable, because they require context.

I think it is fine for different people to choose different nominal values, but that's akin to e.g. choosing different expected rates of inflation in an NPV analysis.
 
Bob from DVCforless here.

We "normalized" the statuses, which for now means fewer statuses for the time being. Previously, we simply mirrored whatever the broker's status was. But this came with bad side effects that made the status filter inconsistent, with different brokers using different terminology, or omitting relevant statuses. So previously, if you wanted to isolate, "new" listings, or "price reduced" listings you'd only be able to do so if the broker included that status. We now use our own data to reflect the key statuses, like "new", "price reduced", "stripped", etc. The side effect in the short term is fewer statuses. But we will be adding some of the lost statuses back, again, but normalized this time, so that the experience and reliability of your saved searches is perfect. Example statuses that we're adding back "Aul subsidized dues", "Guaranteed Week", "Non-negotiable pricing", "seller pays dues" among others.

Why this matters: Well, for one thing, "price reduced" can be leveraged by deal hunters in a way it couldn't before. You can now reliably set up a filter for "price reduced" that will alert you as soon as a contract is reduced. These are often the best deals on the market, and missed by the average user. You'll also notice that we added price history to the listings. If you look at a "price reduced" listing you'll see when it was reduced, and from what.
This is great! Thanks for all that you do!
 
I'm not sure the nominal worth-of-a-point (should) change based on how you use the points. Instead, I think one should consider some uses "better values" and others "worse values." Otherwise, the points aren't comparable, because they require context.

I think it is fine for different people to choose different nominal values, but that's akin to e.g. choosing different expected rates of inflation in an NPV analysis.
Completely agree that the nominal value of a point doesn't change based on how they're used.

But the 'just rent them' crowd will value them at $20/pt or whatever they think they can rent them at. Valuing a point this way is a mistake (or, at best, a salve). To wit: no one will say the points are worth $40/pt when you can just use them at a DVC resort for a room that's $40/pt when rented from Disney.

Anyway, you're pretty much spot on with NPV analysis angle. My post/analysis should be posted later today and will have different nominal values based on different time values of money.
 
I don't know---"cash value" isn't a half-bad way of valuing a point. I would use a "low/no-effort" valuation---so, not DIY renting. For example, it's probably defensible to value them at a blended rate of what DVC Request would pay you, and if we are being honest, after taxes.

If you aren't using cash value, what are you thinking?
 
Completely agree that the nominal value of a point doesn't change based on how they're used.

But the 'just rent them' crowd will value them at $20/pt or whatever they think they can rent them at. Valuing a point this way is a mistake (or, at best, a salve). To wit: no one will say the points are worth $40/pt when you can just use them at a DVC resort for a room that's $40/pt when rented from Disney.

Anyway, you're pretty much spot on with NPV analysis angle. My post/analysis should be posted later today and will have different nominal values based on different time values of money.
I’d say $10-20pp depending on which resort (SSR vs VGC for instance) and how long until expiration of points after est close and point loading (still have home resort priority window or not).
 
I don't know---"cash value" isn't a half-bad way of valuing a point. I would use a "low/no-effort" valuation---so, not DIY renting. For example, it's probably defensible to value them at a blended rate of what DVC Request would pay you, and if we are being honest, after taxes.

If you aren't using cash value, what are you thinking?
In short, cash conversion value of bonus points should be a ceiling and they should be valued like all the rest of the points in the contract (with time value of money and factors like expiration baked in).

No one values an entire contract based on cash conversion value and I posit bonus points shouldn't be either, even if you intend to rent them. That's just a wash transaction if you actually rent them and (almost always) an overvaluation if you don't.
 
If the price is low enough to reflect the missing points, partially or fully stripped contracts can still be great deals.

I’m curious to hear everyone’s thoughts on how we should value current and next-year points. Should we base it on the average dollar value they fetch on the rental market (around $16–$18), or would a different approach make more sense?
So valuing current and subsequent year points will also depend on whether or not seller is reimbursing dues on the points they used. If any year (current or forward) points are missing and you’re still footing the bill for dues, I would deduct $18-25/pt based on resort. If seller is offering to cover dues I would reduce the valuation penalty by annual dues of that resort or for simplicity’s sake, perhaps $10.

I hesitate to contradict @ehh in any way, but I would make rental value (assuming still in home resort period and you can use them before 7m mark) my minimum valuation for loaded points at the resorts I’m maybe-probably not-but if there’s a market crash- looking to buy and have run the numbers on. E.g., recently booked a BCV studio for less than 20/pts a night around thanksgiving weekend— unless something goes horribly wrong with the economy or parks, I cannot imagine Disney making that room available for less than $500 and many years it goes north of $600. Similarly, I often stay at VGC in studios where the cost per point is more than $25 in an equivalent hotel room… and it looks like the disparity on 2Bed villas v suites might be even greater. This valuation only makes sense on years you aren’t paying dues, of course, but it’s rarer to pay dues on banked points than it is to be expected to pay dues on stripped points.
 
Fifth contract, fifth resort, fifth use year
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Certainly wasn’t a goal of mine on the front end. Each contract had its own specific trip purpose and I didn’t want the planning challenges of a unique use year to get in the way. I’m mostly looking at 2 bedroom+ and can easily use 2-3 years worth of points from one contract in a single trip. We’ll see if it becomes too much and I have to pare them down at some point!
 
Certainly wasn’t a goal of mine on the front end. Each contract had its own specific trip purpose and I didn’t want the planning challenges of a unique use year to get in the way. I’m mostly looking at 2 bedroom+ and can easily use 2-3 years worth of points from one contract in a single trip. We’ll see if it becomes too much and I have to pare them down at some point!
My contracts are also mostly trip-specific, but I've structured my purchases such that I typically have a slight excess of points in my contracts. I also have 1-2 stays per year that are bookable at 7m, which lets me put the excess trip-specific points to good use. Consolidated UYs are key to making this work, though.

How are you going to handle an imperfect number of points? Vary the trip length a little bit as needed?
 
My contracts are also mostly trip-specific, but I've structured my purchases such that I typically have a slight excess of points in my contracts. I also have 1-2 stays per year that are bookable at 7m, which lets me put the excess trip-specific points to good use. Consolidated UYs are key to making this work, though.

How are you going to handle an imperfect number of points? Vary the trip length a little bit as needed?
Wouldn't the new transfer rules benefit this situation? At least that is what I'm reading in the thread about the new rules, so you don't orphan points
 
My contracts are also mostly trip-specific, but I've structured my purchases such that I typically have a slight excess of points in my contracts. I also have 1-2 stays per year that are bookable at 7m, which lets me put the excess trip-specific points to good use. Consolidated UYs are key to making this work, though.

How are you going to handle an imperfect number of points? Vary the trip length a little bit as needed?
We tend to like 2 resort split stays and I expect to shift the number of days per resort based on available points in each contract being used. I also hoped to incorporate renting or transferring on occasion but only when necessary to keep a few points from expiring. My biggest concern is what I’ll do with unexpected cancellations.
 
We tend to like 2 resort split stays and I expect to shift the number of days per resort based on available points in each contract being used. I also hoped to incorporate renting or transferring on occasion but only when necessary to keep a few points from expiring. My biggest concern is what I’ll do with unexpected cancellations.
I have 5 contracts across 4 resorts and 4UYs… so far it’s worked out OK (and I love having extra WL opportunities) because I don’t need to combine them and have enough on each contract to book individual trips (each year in a studio, every other year in villas), but there is definitely additional mental load remembering when to bank, which points work better for which season, etc. I’m only 2 years in (and 1.5 of having 4 UYs) and I think if I could do it all over from scratch I would still want at least 2UY and maybe even 3 UY that are pretty close together, e.g. Aug/Sep/Oct.

I was starting to type out that I would never deliberately split the same home resort between 2 UY again, but I added my 4th UY to get the previous years’ points in the VGF fire sale and I don’t really regret it, yet. 🙃 Eventually I will probably sell my resale VGF points in the 4th UY, but for now it’s been easy to use them for standalone reservations on short trips.
 
I make pretty low offers because I don't NEED any more points and I certainly shouldn't be spending MORE money than I already do on Disney. However I have zero expectations that a seller will agree to my price. It's happened for my previous contracts but I feel I got lucky...and maybe I will again...if not that's ok. Honestly I don't even expect that my low offers will even be passed along to the seller if they have already rejected higher. All I want is not to be scolded and for the agents to respond back succinctly and courteously...which they really do. And I go out of my way sometimes to let them know that and that it is appreciated. I've even told them I'm a bottom fisher and that I don't mean to annoy them. At this point I have dealt with the same agents so often I assume they roll their eyes when they see my name come through with an offer! I know I would!

But I do agree an agent would rather make a low ball offer deal than keep waiting for the higher price to come through...in business it's all about money in your pocket rather than the potential for it. Anyway happy hunting!
This is my method as well, especially since I have plenty of points now. I lowball my offers and I'm not insulted if a seller isn't interested. I'm also very willing to walk away if we can't come to a price I want. Of course once in awhile (my last purchase), I lowball an offer and the seller takes it!
 
I’m curious to hear everyone’s thoughts on how we should value current and next-year points. Should we base it on the average dollar value they fetch on the rental market (around $16–$18), or would a different approach make more sense?

Personally I look at it as $20pp since thats what Disney currently pays for MB. I know that renting will yield less pp but I like to compare apples to apples direct purchase prices.
Edit: apples to apples might not be the best wording since it's not really in many instances.
 

















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