ROFR Thread January to March 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[RamblinWreck]

What I've noticed is the point spread - most of them are NOT loaded - not even full points for this UY. Do you feel like doing THAT analysis? lol.

Signed,
Also has plenty of paid work to do

Is this sort of what you were looking for?

This is not an exact science, and I totally just flew through this. I took the 130 contracts that I analyzed in that other post and rated them all based on how many combined points they have between 2018, 2019, and 2020. "Loaded" = ~3x the contract # of points, "Medium" = ~2x the contract # of points, "Stripped" = They pretty much only have the 2020 points available and maybe a few other straggling points.

47 contracts were classified as Loaded
45 contracts were classified as Medium
38 contracts were classified as Stripped

So there was a pretty even distribution between Loaded, Medium, and Stripped for contracts submitted.

Here are the passing rates for each category:

Loaded: 89% (42 passed, 5 taken)
Medium: 73% (33 passed, 12 taken)
Stripped: 45% (17 passed, 21 taken)

This has been somewhat fun/interesting to do. I may do something more involved later which will involve tracking each contract by use year, "loaded/stripped" status, how far above/below the median price for that resort its $/pt was. I'm also open to other suggestions. I actually kind of need to bone back up on my statistics knowledge for a professional exam in a few months so this could be a good opportunity to shake some dust off!

 

[crvetter]

Is this sort of what you were looking for?

This is not an exact science, and I totally just flew through this. I took the 130 contracts that I analyzed in that other post and rated them all based on how many combined points they have between 2018, 2019, and 2020. "Loaded" = ~3x the contract # of points, "Medium" = ~2x the contract # of points, "Stripped" = They pretty much only have the 2020 points available and maybe a few other straggling points.

47 contracts were classified as Loaded
45 contracts were classified as Medium
38 contracts were classified as Stripped

So there was a pretty even distribution between Loaded, Medium, and Stripped for contracts submitted.

Here are the passing rates for each category:

Loaded: 89% (42 passed, 5 taken)
Medium: 73% (33 passed, 12 taken)
Stripped: 45% (17 passed, 21 taken)

This has been somewhat fun/interesting to do. I may do something more involved later which will involve tracking each contract by use year, "loaded/stripped" status, how far above/below the median price for that resort it's $/pt was. I'm also open to other suggestions. I actually kind of need to bone back up on my statistics knowledge for a professional exam in a few months so this could be a good opportunity to shake some dust off!

What I find interesting is the stripped are passing much less. I still feel Disney is either buying them back because they felt the discount offered on them is too high (depressing resale, which is actually bad for Disney) or they have a bunch of developer points sitting around they need to "burn" which they can use (I assume) to make the contract whole. I just don't know if the developer points have to be from the same unit to make "whole" that contract, just like they can't combine contracts from two units.

 

[RamblinWreck]

What I find interesting is the stripped are passing much less. I still feel Disney is either buying them back because they felt the discount offered on them is too high (depressing resale, which is actually bad for Disney) or they have a bunch of developer points sitting around they need to "burn" which they can use (I assume) to make the contract whole. I just don't know if the developer points have to be from the same unit to make "whole" that contract, just like they can't combine contracts from two units.

Yeah, it's definitely interesting. I wasn't keeping track of the price each one went for, unfortunately, so I can't say for sure how related the two have been.

I will say that I found myself wishing I had made a whole extra category called Super Loaded (or "loaded to the tits" as someone eloquently put it earlier in the thread). I noticed just about every contract that was submitted that had all or most of its 2017 points banked into 2018 passed. And it didn't seem like they were selling for abnormally high prices either.

 

[ArmyChaplain Matt]

Is this sort of what you were looking for?

This is not an exact science, and I totally just flew through this. I took the 130 contracts that I analyzed in that other post and rated them all based on how many combined points they have between 2018, 2019, and 2020. "Loaded" = ~3x the contract # of points, "Medium" = ~2x the contract # of points, "Stripped" = They pretty much only have the 2020 points available and maybe a few other straggling points.

47 contracts were classified as Loaded
45 contracts were classified as Medium
38 contracts were classified as Stripped

So there was a pretty even distribution between Loaded, Medium, and Stripped for contracts submitted.

Here are the passing rates for each category:

Loaded: 89% (42 passed, 5 taken)
Medium: 73% (33 passed, 12 taken)
Stripped: 45% (17 passed, 21 taken)

This has been somewhat fun/interesting to do. I may do something more involved later which will involve tracking each contract by use year, "loaded/stripped" status, how far above/below the median price for that resort its $/pt was. I'm also open to other suggestions. I actually kind of need to bone back up on my statistics knowledge for a professional exam in a few months so this could be a good opportunity to shake some dust off!

by your latest tabs, i have a BWV contract, loaded at 150 points, june use year and an international seller, the drunken monkey should pass!!!! that’s what i’m praying for!!

 

[RamblinWreck]

by your latest tabs, i have a BWV contract, loaded at 150 points, june use year and an international seller, the drunken monkey should pass!!!! that’s what i’m praying for!!

I make no promises.

The drunken monkey has driven insane all of the previous people who have made attempts to make sense of his behavior.

 

[grubens]

Since some of you have been mentioning Use Year (and because I'm horribly unmotivated to do any of the work I'm actually paid to do this afternoon), I ran a quick little analysis on the contracts reported on page 1 of this thread.

Here are the pass rates for the WDW resorts (I ignored all contracts that are still waiting. This is just the contracts that have either passed or been taken. I also ignored VB, HHI, and VGC).

Pass Rates by Use Year

Feb: 48% (13 passed, 14 taken)
Mar: 75% (6 passed, 2 taken)
Apr: 90% (9 passed, 1 taken)
Jun: 80% (12 passed, 3 taken)
Aug: 62% (8 passed, 5 taken)
Sep: 90% (9 passed, 1 taken)
Oct: 69% (11 passed, 5 taken)
Dec: 77% (24 passed, 7 taken)

It appears that February and October Use Years are at a significant disadvantage in ROFR (though these are fairly small sample sizes, so don't read into them too much)

Pass Rates by Resort

PVB: 100% (10 passed, 0 taken)
OKW: 100% (3 passed, 0 taken)
SSR: 77% (17 passed, 5 taken)
AKV: 76% (25 passed, 8 taken)
BWV: 74% (14 passed, 5 taken)
BLT: 58% (14 passed, 10 taken)
VGF: 56% (5 passed, 4 taken)
BCV: 40% (4 passed, 6 taken)

As one waiting to hear on a Feb UY BCV moderately-stripped contract, I wish your work deadlines were more pressing. These numbers are too depressing.

 

[RamblinWreck]

As one waiting to hear on a Feb UY BCV moderately-stripped contract, I wish your work deadlines were more pressing. These numbers are too depressing.

I wouldn’t get too depressed about the Feb use year. I think it’s probably related to the fact that most of these contracts were sumitted in January.

Plus, if they already snagged a bunch of Feb Use Year contracts, the waitlist for those must be smaller now, right?

 

[SZQ2019]

For those that wonder if the ROFR department and DVC sales are connected or sharing information, I present this tidbit.....We passed ROFR a couple of weeks ago. Today, when I grabbed the mail, I had a "special offer" from DVC for a phone call and gift card for my time. Hmmmm. We have visited 6 times in the last 4 years and already had 2 trips planned this year, before we bought. Also, I have never called or toured before, or requested a DVD, nor have we received any DVC promo materials before today. Interesting timing I'd say.....

 

[Bearval]

For those that wonder if the ROFR department and DVC sales are connected or sharing information, I present this tidbit.....We passed ROFR a couple of weeks ago. Today, when I grabbed the mail, I had a "special offer" from DVC for a phone call and gift card for my time. Hmmmm. We have visited 6 times in the last 4 years and already had 2 trips planned this year, before we bought. Also, I have never called or toured before, or requested a DVD, nor have we received any DVC promo materials before today. Interesting timing I'd say.....

I received one too but in the fine print you were not eligible if you were already a DVC member nor was your immediate family.

 

[SZQ2019]

I received one too but in the fine print you were not eligible if you were already a DVC member nor was your immediate family.

That is strange timing then, as 2019 our trips have been planned for quite awhile, so if they triggered the postcard, it's late. If not, is DVC hoping we don't see the fine print and they can pitch us for full price?

 

[ScubaCat]

Mine is low price August loaded... not QUITE as good "odds" as you.

It reminds me of what I was taught about dating in college: The odds are good, but the goods are odd.

 

[grubens]

I received one too but in the fine print you were not eligible if you were already a DVC member nor was your immediate family.

So if you are a recent resale purchaser who has not purchased 75 points direct from Disney, are you a DVC member who is ineligible?

 

[thebigman65]

Thebigman65---$107-$19502-160-AKV-Aug-0/18, 138/19, 160/20- sent 3/15

oh well....I'm a sucker for the Drunken Monkey!

 

[vanjust14]

Thebigman65---$107-$19502-160-AKV-Aug-0/18, 138/19, 160/20- sent 3/15

oh well....I'm a sucker for the Drunken Monkey!

Woohoo! I hope you get this one, good luck!

 

[JereMary]

Since some of you have been mentioning Use Year (and because I'm horribly unmotivated to do any of the work I'm actually paid to do this afternoon), I ran a quick little analysis on the contracts reported on page 1 of this thread.

Here are the pass rates for the WDW resorts (I ignored all contracts that are still waiting. This is just the contracts that have either passed or been taken. I also ignored VB, HHI, and VGC).

Pass Rates by Use Year

Feb: 48% (13 passed, 14 taken)
Mar: 75% (6 passed, 2 taken)
Apr: 90% (9 passed, 1 taken)
Jun: 80% (12 passed, 3 taken)
Aug: 62% (8 passed, 5 taken)
Sep: 90% (9 passed, 1 taken)
Oct: 69% (11 passed, 5 taken)
Dec: 77% (24 passed, 7 taken)

It appears that February and October Use Years are at a significant disadvantage in ROFR (though these are fairly small sample sizes, so don't read into them too much)

Pass Rates by Resort

PVB: 100% (10 passed, 0 taken)
OKW: 100% (3 passed, 0 taken)
SSR: 77% (17 passed, 5 taken)
AKV: 76% (25 passed, 8 taken)
BWV: 74% (14 passed, 5 taken)
BLT: 58% (14 passed, 10 taken)
VGF: 56% (5 passed, 4 taken)
BCV: 40% (4 passed, 6 taken)

Very interesting! My first two tries were SSR and AKV, both with FEB use years. Based on this my odds weren't fantastic. Hoping to do better with AKV and June UY. I'm also hoping that since the big Jan. deadline thingy has passed things will settle down. It was CRAZY there for awhile.

 

[JereMary]

Thebigman65---$107-$19502-160-AKV-Aug-0/18, 138/19, 160/20- sent 3/15

oh well....I'm a sucker for the Drunken Monkey!

Sure do hope we get to be neighbors! Good luck!

 

[disneygirl281]

For those that wonder if the ROFR department and DVC sales are connected or sharing information, I present this tidbit.....We passed ROFR a couple of weeks ago. Today, when I grabbed the mail, I had a "special offer" from DVC for a phone call and gift card for my time. Hmmmm. We have visited 6 times in the last 4 years and already had 2 trips planned this year, before we bought. Also, I have never called or toured before, or requested a DVD, nor have we received any DVC promo materials before today. Interesting timing I'd say.....

I received the same thing in the mail shortly after we had a contract taken in rofr which I thought was interesting timing as well since we have been staying at DVC resorts for the past 1-2 years and now decided to buy. I have a contract that recently passed rofr but not technically an owner yet so called and spoke to a guide to get my gift card. No idea if he knew we had a contract that passed rofr or not and I didn’t disclose it. The best part is Disney accidentally emailed me two different gift cards today!!

 

[bebec22]

So does the drunken money work on the weekends or can I take a break from checking my email every 5 minutes?

 

[kboo]

So does the drunken money work on the weekends or can I take a break from checking my email every 5 minutes?

Drunken monkey works on weekends when he feels like it. I had a contract pass on a Sunday, 12/24. Sorry.

What I find interesting is the stripped are passing much less. I still feel Disney is either buying them back because they felt the discount offered on them is too high (depressing resale, which is actually bad for Disney) or they have a bunch of developer points sitting around they need to "burn" which they can use (I assume) to make the contract whole. I just don't know if the developer points have to be from the same unit to make "whole" that contract, just like they can't combine contracts from two units.

What was funny was that a year or two ago when I was going through the process, loaded, or at least full points in current UY, were the ones being taken. go figure.

 

[Bearval]

So if you are a recent resale purchaser who has not purchased 75 points direct from Disney, are you a DVC member who is ineligible?

I am did a direct purchase