I completely agree with your first point. The restrictions will change everything. Your second point is also valid and I think varies greatly on the individual, with the majority being in agreement. In thinking about it, I actually think 100% the opposite. Here's why.
One of the biggest things I've learned during these tumultuous few months in DVCland is that there are cohorts of owners who think very similarly to other members of that cohort and very differently from members of other cohorts. I think sometimes the mistake we make on here (at least I know that I have) is that we try to convince those in another cohort that they should see things our way. I don't think that's a good use of our time. So building on that, and being cognizant of the fact that I am a member of a particularly conservative, strict, and rather uptight cohort, I actually want to see these restrictions succeed. In fact, I want the restrictions to get even harsher. I mean that 100%, not an ounce of sarcasm. Here's why I think this: many people are buying RIV after much research and being fully aware of the restrictions because they want to own there and they want to stay there. They do so knowing it's expensive and probably beyond whatever "value proposition" that I'm always blathering on about. They simply don't care. And good for them. They don't plan on selling and they know that if they do sell, they will get a smaller return then they would have absent the restrictions. But again, they simply don't care. And again, more power to them. I wish that for just one moment I could be less stiff, less rigid, and think like that. It's probably an easy and fun way to view things. So my point is, these owners do not really feel that they are being hurt by the restrictions. Let's not forget, the key component of a timeshare purchase is its use, not its barter or sale. So there is a cohort of owners who believes that the restrictions are not relevant to them. And as we established earlier, it's probably not a good use of time to try to convince them otherwise. However, at the same time, these restrictions (and hopefully in the future even harsher restrictions) create an opportunity for people like me.
So let's look at the flip side. DVC in 2019 is too expensive for my cohort. We are the frugal people. The rigid people. The inflexible people. It's not that we can't afford it, for the most part we can, it's that we can't justify it at the current price. And again, that is a very personal decision. People like me don't care about blue cards or special events or AP discounts or trading to other resorts or whatever other perks they come up with. People like me want to own DVC to stay in a DVC room. And we want to do so for as little money as possible. Hard stop. These restrictions create an ecosystem that allows people like me to participate once again. And to take it one step further, I don't think Disney likes this. But it's a situation that they created.
Back to your point, I agree with you that these restrictions are going to change everything. They will likely create an entirely new DVC ecosystem. But I don't think that's a bad thing. I actually think this new ecosystem will allow more people to participate. Will some owners get hurt? Sure. I want to be clear that I'm not rooting for that. I feel badly for the person who doesn't know what they bought and loses their shirt when they're forced to sell. But that happened before these restrictions and it will happen after. I actually think it's beyond the scope of this conversation.
I love the Riviera. I love the location, the look, the feel, the rooms, the layout, the amenities, etc. I'm not crazy about the point requirements and the dues are a little high. And I DON'T love the buy-in cost. But put some points out there on the resale market for $60-80 (which could happen) and I'll take the restrictions and higher maintenance fees all day long.
I agree with everything you say here. But as I said above, I have a slightly different take. The situation you laid out above describes just about every other timeshare system out there. Disney was an outlier...up until now perhaps. But we have seen posters on here like
@Dean who have mastered the acquisition and use of resale points in various timeshare systems for mere pennies on the dollar. Disney might be moving in that direction, and personally, and for ENTIRELY SELFISH motives, I'm all for it. I for one would love to get my hands on some sub-$50 SSR points. I would learn to love that resort like it was my own child.