Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[SPLzero]

I wonder if the hurricane played a role in the percentage drop. I would assume that most sales come from people visiting on vacation.

 

[tnicks]

Again, now getting to the hypothetical - We still could be talking about the resort not being open yet....but that is a STEEP drop when the economy hasn't really softened. The fact that older resort sales are up while Riviera sales are down says a LOT about what people think of the resale restrictions.

Riviera has a very high point chart, high MFs, and high price per point. Those are more than enough to make the average potential buyers, who are looking to make Disney vacations affordable, run for the hills. While I think we all would like to see Disney conclude that resale restrictions are driving a drop in sales, I think that's a bit of a stretch as the average consumer sadly does not have that forethought.

 

[dropd]

Man, I hope they reverse the resale restrictions, but I just don’t see them doing it. They frequently defy logic because they refuse to admit they did something wrong. No matter how many members or potential members tell them the restriction is hurting sales, they adamantly refuse to believe it. Even if sales aren’t in the dumps, I definitely think they’d be higher without that restriction.

I certainly would have added 75 direct at Riviera prior to the blue card minimum point increase if the restrictions weren't in place. I would even entertain doing that at 100 points now.

It might honestly have made me consider just doing Riviera direct and bypassing resale entirely. Instead I purchased 2 small resale contracts. *shrug*

 

[skier_pete]

Riviera has a very high point chart, high MFs, and high price per point. Those are more than enough to make the average potential buyers, who are looking to make Disney vacations affordable, run for the hills. While I think we all would like to see Disney conclude that resale restrictions are driving a drop in sales, I think that's a bit of a stretch as the average consumer sadly does not have that forethought.

I agree - but could 20% of consumers be turned off by resale restrictions? I think that's possible. As I said, pure speculation for right now. High MF and High Point charts didn't deter VGF or Poly. (yes, more known location.) As I said, need to wait until resort opens to make any conclusions. Probably at least 9 months away from really knowing if they have a problem.

 

[Marionnette]

I agree - but could 20% of consumers be turned off by resale restrictions? I think that's possible. As I said, pure speculation for right now. High MF and High Point charts didn't deter VGF or Poly. (yes, more known location.) As I said, need to wait until resort opens to make any conclusions. Probably at least 9 months away from really knowing if they have a problem.

Agreed. Who typically purchases a resort prior to it even opening? Current DVC owners who are looking to add on and guests who are visiting the parks at the time of purchase. With park attendance being down over the last two quarters, it’s not surprising that purchases by the latter group would be down. And then there’s the subset of current DVC owners (like myself) who are so skeptical of the resale restrictions that they are disinclined to purchase no matter how impressive the resort might be.

 

[Minniemoo15]

I certainly would have added 75 direct at Riviera prior to the blue card minimum point increase if the restrictions weren't in place. I would even entertain doing that at 100 points now.

It might honestly have made me consider just doing Riviera direct and bypassing resale entirely. Instead I purchased 2 small resale contracts. *shrug*

We were the same. CBR is our favourite mod - we love the area. If not for the restrictions we would likely have bought Riv. Instead, we wound up with a Poly resale that I am really excited about. Ironic how the resale restrictions drove us to resale !

 

[zavandor]

While I think we all would like to see Disney conclude that resale restrictions are driving a drop in sales, I think that's a bit of a stretch as the average consumer sadly does not have that forethought.

This is true.
However, if people are not really that knowledgeable, then why put the resale restrictions in the first place? If people don't know what resale is and how it works, DVC shouldn't worry at all.
Restrictions are for people who know that resale exists and DVC hopes that with the restrictions they may be swayed away from resale and into buying direct.

If X is the number of people who would have bought resale and decide to buy direct because of the resale restrictions
If Y is the number of people who would have bought direct but decide not to buy or buy resale because of the resale restrictions
Then DVC wins only if X > Y

But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X

 

[skier_pete]

But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X

I definitely think they misjudged the impact on the knowledgable consumer. As you say - the reason behind it was to drive more people to direct sales, not drive more people to resale at older resorts.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X

I agree with your post. Just thought I'd give my data point. We just bought 75 points direct, and 125 resale. While getting in before the blue card minimum went up to 100 was nice, the real reason we bought 75 direct was so that we could use banking and borrowing to stay at a "new" resort once every 3 years. Had the recent resale restrictions not been in place, we likely would have forgone the "blue card perks", and bought the whole thing resale.

 

[dmurf01]

Added the numbers for September.

Again - trying to avoid hyperbole with this thread. September is historically a slower month, but the trend of Riviera direct sales are not good for Disney, nor terrible. CCV direct sales are dropping while RIV are also dropping.

Article mentions sales down 5% year over year, but also looking at the two:

Sept 2019: RIV sales, 93,000 Total sales: 150,000
Sept 2018: CCV sales, 129,000 Total sales: 157,000

So that means a year ago, CCV was 82% of direct sales.
This year - RIviera is only 62% of direct sales.
(Aulani not included in either number.)

That says that while sales are down 5%, current resort sales are down TWENTY EIGHT PERCENT.

Current pace indicates 5-6 years to sell out the resort. Poly with a similar number of points sold out in just under 3 years.

Again, now getting to the hypothetical - We still could be talking about the resort not being open yet....but that is a STEEP drop when the economy hasn't really softened. The fact that older resort sales are up while Riviera sales are down says a LOT about what people think of the resale restrictions.

I've said it many times - if this trend doesn't turn around once the resort opens - I really do think Disney will revisit the resale restriction.



This is all the extensions that were sold back in 2010 or whenever the heck they did the OKW extensions. Yes, Disney never bothered to file them. Oops.

The article also mentioned that CCV went on the market only a few months before being open versus RIV which has been on the market much longer. That adds to the various factors. I have read many different articles showing numbers compared to other resorts patterns and it didn't look far enough differently to be concerned, especially considering all of the different factors of today versus then. Obviously restrictions can be one of those factors but we'll see. There are so many factors that go into this that we can't know which are having more impact. The article also mentions that there is a possibility that there is a delay in deeds getting processed. I think we should know if that is the case when the next month's numbers come out. If that is the case, then it changes the conversation. If not, then we know the numbers are correct. When Riviera opens and we are in the busy selling season, we'll actually be able to discuss this. Until then, it is all just speculation.

 

[Bing Showei]

I think it’s a perfect storm mostly of Disney’s own making. You have new restrictions, on an unknown resort, serviced by an unknown mass transit system, sold 9 long months ahead of opening, providing ample time for angered ownership to establish a narrative on the resorts.

Had sales started in November, and prior to this, the Skyliner had time to established itself as a solid means of transportation (which I foresee it will be) for a few months, and the finished resort could be showcased (model rooms don’t cut the mustard for enough buyers); the restrictions notwithstanding, I could imagine Riviera selling pretty well.

Instead, Disney has given all owners a lot to think twice about. And they kindly provided a huge amount of time to do it over and over again.

 

[Soap_1984]

I am not surprised sales are down and everyone here has stated plausible reasons. The point charts and high dues plus initial cost render Riviera a more difficult sale to anyone who is knowledgeable; it just is not a good deal. Assuming I want to come every year, show me when I start saving money vs. just taking a discounted room every year with absolutely no commitment. In my mind, if you are over 50 years old it would be an odd decision to buy Riviera; I don't know what percentage are financed through disney, but if you finance you will be dead before you save $1 going every single year.

I would have considered buying points but it just makes no sense with the resale restrictions. I don't think they will get rid of the restrictions; someone else said this, they never want to admit they have done something wrong. I am still not sure whether the sales are slower because of the restrictions, but this may be further evidence that they are just pushing too hard with pricing. I will keep my $30k and book a studio every year and go when I want and save a LOT of money vs. buying Riviera; that was not a statement that you could have said during the original DVC pitch I heard when we bought saratoga.

 

[dropd]

I agree with your post. Just thought I'd give my data point. We just bought 75 points direct, and 125 resale. While getting in before the blue card minimum went up to 100 was nice, the real reason we bought 75 direct was so that we could use banking and borrowing to stay at a "new" resort once every 3 years. Had the recent resale restrictions not been in place, we likely would have forgone the "blue card perks", and bought the whole thing resale.

Partially as a result of all of this, we've decided (for now) that if we want to stay at a new resort we'll just do a cash stay when we find a good discount. So instead of bumping up that last 75-100 points to our ideal target points range, we hedged our overall position by expecting to occasionally stay on cash (or point rental).

 

[lmhall2000]

Every ROFR on OKW that Disney takes automatically gets the 2057 extension..so, yes- that would speak to some of these numbers.

 

[Brianstl]

I think it’s a perfect storm mostly of Disney’s own making. You have new restrictions, on an unknown resort, serviced by an unknown mass transit system, sold 9 long months ahead of opening, providing ample time for angered ownership to establish a narrative on the resorts.

Had sales started in November, and prior to this, the Skyliner had time to established itself as a solid means of transportation (which I foresee it will be) for a few months, and the finished resort could be showcased (model rooms don’t cut the mustard for enough buyers); the restrictions notwithstanding, I could imagine Riviera selling pretty well.

Instead, Disney has given all owners a lot to think twice about. And they kindly provided a huge amount of time to do it over and over again.

I wonder if they have, also, reached somewhat of saturation point. There are only so many people willing to buy a time share. There are only so many people willing to buy a premium priced timeshare. There are only so many people that want to own a premium priced timeshare operated by Disney. Before Riviera they already had 6,000 of these rooms. That is a lot of timeshare room nights over a year to sell to a limited audience.

 

[WIll C]

As prices rise, the number of people able or willing to buy at that price point diminish. Same thing goes with all prices at Disney. How much it too much to spend on a vacation? Do you settle for fewer days or do you go elsewhere? There will be a point where you start seeing fewer people in the parks, Disney will lose money on the low end (the high end will probably stay the same) and in order to boost sales again, they have to lower or at least stop the price increases.
They may see a near halt to sales as that mid-market purchaser is gone and they will need to do something. That may mean giving more incentives, lowering prices or removing restrictions. The next year or so for them is going to be really telling as their trend is already downward with all the price increases everywhere. If the economy goes down then it will be even worse for them.

 

[tnicks]

However, if people are not really that knowledgeable, then why put the resale restrictions in the first place?

The resale restriction is there to sweeten the pot as a perk for buying direct. People think how it will affect them now, when using the thing they are spending all their money on, not how it will affect them if they want to get rid of their points. Most people that buy direct, buy when they are at a Disney property, not after they go home with a level head. That's something a guide even admitted to me when I spoke with them.

People do not like being told they cannot do something and I believe Disney anticipates that instinct is enough to drive sales.

 

[KStash]

I certainly would have added 75 direct at Riviera prior to the blue card minimum point increase if the restrictions weren't in place. I would even entertain doing that at 100 points now.

It might honestly have made me consider just doing Riviera direct and bypassing resale entirely. Instead I purchased 2 small resale contracts. *shrug*

We were the same. CBR is our favourite mod - we love the area. If not for the restrictions we would likely have bought Riv. Instead, we wound up with a Poly resale that I am really excited about. Ironic how the resale restrictions drove us to resale !

I also would have bought Riviera, possibly all direct, if not for the restrictions, instead I went with a PVB resale. I like the resort, the location, and the idea of the skyliner (assuming it stops crashing). I just don't want to deal with the restrictions should I ever be forced to sell. And to be honest, as we are older, I would likely sell in 20 years or so.

 

[FireflyTrance]

Just to add in, I didn't but Riviera due to the resale restrictions, plain and simple. I know there is a decent possibility that I won't want to visit WDW 40 years from now. It is a tiring place to visit, and I can easily see myself not feeling up to it in my 70s or 80s.

 

[Spark65]

Riviera will sell out like all the other resorts. The economy slowed around July maybe because of the negativity with the "fake recession is coming news" but it slowed. It has started to rebound again and confidence will play a part remember a timeshare is a luxury and if everyone runs around calling wolf people will hold money back.

Disney see's a bigger picture just like developers in general because they are speculating. The market is clearly showing them they can sell and increase with the Reflections resort already in the works. Get ready to be disappointed you didn't buy at Riviera when Reflections will cost even more.