Riviera Resale

[limace]

I was astonished to see timeshare store listing one at $170 today.

 

[Sandisw]

I continue to think that once there’s 20 contracts on the market at once the price will drop considerably. To what, it’s hard to say. We should start to see that, what, maybe early 2021?

I am not thinking that soon, I do wonder if the resale restriction will keep owners from selling unless it is a financial need,

If someone assumes it’s going to have to be sold at a big loss, they may hold it longer than people have for other resorts,

So, as long as one can cover the yearly dues without hardship, I think it may take longer before RIV floods the market.

I know it’s not many but I am still shocked we have seen prices like this.

 

[RivShore]

I am not thinking that soon, I do wonder if the resale restriction will keep owners from selling unless it is a financial need,

If someone assumes it’s going to have to be sold at a big loss, they may hold it longer than people have for other resorts,

So, as long as one can cover the yearly dues without hardship, I think it may take longer before RIV floods the market.

I know it’s not many but I am still shocked we have seen prices like this.

I am shocked at the prices too and in the middle of a recession. The doomsayers have been so far been proven wrong.

 

[Sandisw]

I am shocked at the prices too and in the middle of a recession. The doomsayers have been so far been proven wrong.

We sure have! I was one who said I wouldn’t buy it for all the tea in China...6 months later and I did! Lol

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[DaveNan]

two more RVA resale deeds were added last week ...

recording date	#	points	USD per point	notes
7 Aug 2019​	1a​	175​	100​	bought by flipper​
30 Oct 2019​	1b​	175​	140​	sold by flipper​
18 Mar 2020​	2​	110​	139.1​	​
8 May 2020​	3​	412​	109.2​	​
2 Jun 2020​	4​	100​	135​	​
3 Jun 2020​	5​	125​	144​	​
11 Aug 2020​	6​	130​	135.4​	​
27 Aug 2020​	7​	175​	133.1​	​
1 Sep 2020​	8​	190​	130​	​
17 Sep 2020​	9​	195​	120​	​
25 Sep 2020​	10​	110​	150​	​
8 Oct 2020​	11​	100​	125​	​
9 Oct 2020​	12​	100​	140​	​

the coefficient of determination (R²) is worse because of the spread around 100 point deeds; with the additional data points, the outlier sale to the timeshare flipper has less of an effect (the two best-fit lines are converging) ...

View attachment 531685

The single data point at 412 points also has a large influence on the analysis. It is an "outlier" from an x perspective. If you exclude it from the analysis the R^2 drops to around 0.2 with or without "flipper" data. If that single value moves up or down it has a large influence on the analysis. Moving it $10 up or down moves the slope by 30%. Moving any other point by $10 moves the slope by a couple of percent.

 

[Sandisw]

I still continue to be amazed by the selling prices. I wish there was a way to know if the buyers were current owners who added on and the restrictions are not a big deal because they have other points.

Or new buyers who simply don’t care because they are okay with no trading.

 

[CastAStone]

I still continue to be amazed by the selling prices. I wish there was a way to know if the buyers were current owners who added on and the restrictions are not a big deal because they have other points.

Or new buyers who simply don’t care because they are okay with no trading.

You could look up the contracts in the OC database and then search the buyers names to see what else they own.

 

[Sandisw]

You could look up the contracts in the OC database and then search the buyers names to see what else they own.

Yeah, I could...but not sure I am that interested! Hahaha

 

[Lva5]

I still continue to be amazed by the selling prices. I wish there was a way to know if the buyers were current owners who added on and the restrictions are not a big deal because they have other points.

Or new buyers who simply don’t care because they are okay with no trading.

So, this is an interesting point, but I think the restrictions are going to be a big deal for just about anyone. Obviously the marginal utility of points goes down the more points and more resorts you own, so if someone had a bunch of points already they might not care as much about the restrictions, but to me it's still a factor. I would not be as interested in a Riviera resale due to the restrictions, but I also own Riviera direct so I have more flexibility with the resort.

That being said, I'm pretty happy with the resale data thus far given what I paid.

 

[Sandisw]

So, this is an interesting point, but I think the restrictions are going to be a big deal for just about anyone. Obviously the marginal utility of points goes down the more points and more resorts you own, so if someone had a bunch of points already they might not care as much about the restrictions, but to me it's still a factor. I would not be as interested in a Riviera resale due to the restrictions, but I also own Riviera direct so I have more flexibility with the resort.

That being said, I'm pretty happy with the resale data thus far given what I paid.

I think it will depend. I would have no problem picking up restricted resale points at RIV because I have 775 points that can be used at all the other resorts...

I own 175 direct at RIV but would love another 100 for home resort advantage and if they were restricted it would be no big deal now that I know I love the resort.

 

[Lorana]

So, this is an interesting point, but I think the restrictions are going to be a big deal for just about anyone. Obviously the marginal utility of points goes down the more points and more resorts you own, so if someone had a bunch of points already they might not care as much about the restrictions, but to me it's still a factor. I would not be as interested in a Riviera resale due to the restrictions, but I also own Riviera direct so I have more flexibility with the resort.

That being said, I'm pretty happy with the resale data thus far given what I paid.

I think it will depend. I would have no problem picking up restricted resale points at RIV because I have 775 points that can be used at all the other resorts...

I own 175 direct at RIV but would love another 100 for home resort advantage and if they were restricted it would be no big deal now that I know I love the resort.

I suspect those picking up RIV on the resale market are doing so for the same reason -- because they only intend to use them at RIV and don't care about the restriction, similar to the way VGF and VGC buy points at those resorts to only use there. If the VGC contracts I have in ROFR had the same restriction, I honestly wouldn't care, as I bought them to use only at VGC (and honestly in some ways they have that restriction in the sense that they are a different UY than the rest of our points!).

As someone who also bought some direct RIV points, I'm also pretty happy with how the resale market for RIV has played out so far. I suspect that if I did sell them down the road, it would be after 2042, so my hope is that the loss of BCV and BWV as DVC resorts will also help keep that RIV resale price higher.

 

[RoseGold]

similar to the way VGF and VGC buy points at those resorts to only use there

VGF is near the top for SAP, for the length of deed and low dues. I'd say Beach Club goes in that category, and HH/Vero.

 

[Lorana]

VGF is near the top for SAP, for the length of deed and low dues. I'd say Beach Club goes in that category, and HH/Vero.

Really? Huh. I didn’t realize that. Most of the posts here about VGF are people buying to be able to book there, especially for studios as you pretty much have to own to book it. It’s also a pretty high buy-in cost for SAP, so I’m pretty surprised folks would buy VGF for SAP. I’ve primarily seen the data that points to SSR, BLT and PVB for SAP.

 

[RoseGold]

Really? Huh. I didn’t realize that. Most of the posts here about VGF are people buying to be able to book there, especially for studios as you pretty much have to own to book it. It’s also a pretty high buy-in cost for SAP, so I’m pretty surprised folks would buy VGF for SAP. I’ve primarily seen the data that points to SSR, BLT and PVB for SAP.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/
Maybe not the very top, but consistently near the top, and not far off the usual suspects.

 

[havoc315]

Let's fast forward a few years in perspective...
Specifically, let's think about the year 2042ish...

The "resale restrictions" are likely to be put into place with every new offering.
So by 2042, these will be your likely options at WDW:

Animal Kingdom - resale "unrestricted"
Bay Lake Tower 2060 - resale "unrestricted"
Beach Club -- new offering, resale restricted
Boardwalk -- new offering, resale restricted
Boulder Ridge -- new offering, resale restricted
Copper Creek - resale "unrestricted"
Grand Floridian 2064 - "unrestricted"
Old Key West - "unrestricted"
Polynesian - "unrestricted"
Reflections - restricted
Riviera Resort restricted
Saratoga Springs - unrestricted
Likely at least 1 other DVC -- restricted

Expect by 2042, about 13 DVC properties at WDW
If you buy resale, you will now only get to use your points at the 7 oldest DVC properties.
Meanwhile, the newest 6 will likely all have the resale restrictions.

This will be a BIG incentive to buy direct. But resale at the "old" resorts won't necessarily be that appealing compared to restricted resales.

Point is, the "resale restriction" will become less of an issue over time, as the same restriction continues to hit the newer resorts. And as there become fewer "original" resorts that unrestricted points can even use.

 

[RoseGold]

If you buy resale, you will now only get to use your points at the 7 oldest DVC properties.
Meanwhile, the newest 6 will likely all have the resale restrictions. This will be a BIG incentive to buy direct. But resale at the "old" resorts won't necessarily be that appealing compared to restricted resales.

I think this makes the old resorts more appealing.

Compare BLT chart to RIV. The charts are inflating. That's why right now the 2042 point charts are so appealing and it's impossible to get a BW/BCV studio. Those contracts are worth so much at the very end because of the legacy charts. The exact same thing can happen to BLT, and it has an awesome location (like BCV/BWV).

Especially if the future DVC is in meh locations, like RIV and Reflections, the old properties could really be looking good.

 

[Lorana]

I think this makes the old resorts more appealing.

Compare BLT chart to RIV. The charts are inflating. That's why right now the 2042 point charts are so appealing and it's impossible to get a BW/BCV studio. Those contracts are worth so much at the very end because of the legacy charts. The exact same thing can happen to BLT, and it has an awesome location (like BCV/BWV).

Especially if the future DVC is in meh locations, like RIV and Reflections, the old properties could really be looking good.

I agree that the older resorts become more appealing due to their charts, but I also feel that it helps both direct and resale, since direct purchases will have access to those resorts as well as the new ones.

 

[CastAStone]

I agree that the older resorts become more appealing due to their charts, but I also feel that it helps both direct and resale, since direct purchases will have access to those resorts as well as the new ones.

AND Old key west has its excellent chart until 2057, and CCV has its very strong chart until 2068!

 

[Turn the Page]

Let's fast forward a few years in perspective...
Specifically, let's think about the year 2042ish...

The "resale restrictions" are likely to be put into place with every new offering.
So by 2042, these will be your likely options at WDW:

Animal Kingdom - resale "unrestricted"
Bay Lake Tower 2060 - resale "unrestricted"
Beach Club -- new offering, resale restricted
Boardwalk -- new offering, resale restricted
Boulder Ridge -- new offering, resale restricted
Copper Creek - resale "unrestricted"
Grand Floridian 2064 - "unrestricted"
Old Key West - "unrestricted"
Polynesian - "unrestricted"
Reflections - restricted
Riviera Resort restricted
Saratoga Springs - unrestricted
Likely at least 1 other DVC -- restricted

Expect by 2042, about 13 DVC properties at WDW
If you buy resale, you will now only get to use your points at the 7 oldest DVC properties.
Meanwhile, the newest 6 will likely all have the resale restrictions.

This will be a BIG incentive to buy direct. But resale at the "old" resorts won't necessarily be that appealing compared to restricted resales.

Point is, the "resale restriction" will become less of an issue over time, as the same restriction continues to hit the newer resorts. And as there become fewer "original" resorts that unrestricted points can even use.

I totally agree except for one small detail. The legacy 14 resorts aren't entirely unrestricted. If I understand correctly resale contracts at legacy 14 resorts are not eligible for use at RIV or any future resorts. So in 2042 you have several resorts expiring. Who knows if in 2042 you can use AKV points at BCV or not. I don't think there is anything that indicates what DVD's plan is once resorts start expiring.

ETA: Nevermind. I see you already made that point.