Riviera Resale

[KAT4DISNEY]

(I own at BWV)

Remember we are talking about direct purchasing here as the initial investment. There is zero comparison between BWV Resale vs RIV Direct, just buy BWV at that point if you don't care about direct benefits.

Agreed there's zero comparison between the resale legacy and direct RIV but when I started out I think it was initially resale to resale. If you changed the comparison that wasn't readily apparent and last night I forwarded to thinking you were comparing Riv direct to Legacy resale which as you say also isn't the same comparison. When we're all talking about different things responses are definitely going to reach different conclusions.

 

[sethschroeder]

If you changed the comparison that wasn't readily apparent

My original posts were about how a resale restriction in a Epcot resort as we approach 2042 and beyond is much different than what many are thinking about today with so many options open and with such a larger percentage of rooms by MK/Epcot. I simply was outlining that information with factual breakdowns of where points and rooms reside within the DVC system.

The poster outlined buying BWV today in 2020 which was a completely different topic but I addressed it because the math is not that crazy of a difference. The purpose of this thread was someone trying to understand if they purchased RIV Direct what resale was looking like.

"Try other locations" is not in the long term going be an option. You have to own RIV 15-20 years though to get to that point.

I also outlined that my portion of the topic was a 15-20+ year discussion and not if you had to sell in the next 10 years which at that point just don't buy direct if there is any real chance you might have to sell that quickly.

 

[RoseGold]

Right now I'd say SSR is $100 so if that holds, I'd be surprised to see Riviera below $80 or above $120.

Funny, this is exactly what I was thinking. I was expecting RIV to follow SSR pretty closely in a few years. Sure, it's tons longer, but locked down. Like SSR, I can't see RIV competing with BLT/Poly resale. Not gonna lie, I might even be willing to be a seventh class DVC for some cheap RIV.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[ForWhomTheMouseTolls]

I mean at 130 a point, I’d rather just buy direct and get access to the other resorts. And Disney will likely ROFR anything ludicrous just to prevent a disaster in the resale market. 130 is reasonable given the cost at 160ish after incentives.

 

[Doberge]

one more RVA resale deed was added this week ...

recording date	#	points	USD per point	notes
7 Aug 2019​	1a​	175​	100​	bought by flipper​
30 Oct 2019​	1b​	175​	140​	sold by flipper​
18 Mar 2020​	2​	110​	139.1​	​
8 May 2020​	3​	412​	109.2​	​
2 Jun 2020​	4​	100​	135​	​
3 Jun 2020​	5​	125​	144​	​
11 Aug 2020​	6​	130​	135.4​	​
27 Aug 2020​	7​	175​	133.1​	​
1 Sep 2020​	8​	190​	130​	​

seeing if there was any correlation by size, there is somewhat but we don't have a ton of data; coefficient of determination (R²) is decent if you exclude the outlier, not so much if you treat it as a relevant point ...

View attachment 523735

I'm catching up so please excuse the simple question. So this is the list of all recorded Riviera resale recordings? Only 8 deeds? I would have guessed more had been recorded by this point.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I'm catching up so please excuse the simple question. So this is the list of all recorded Riviera resale recordings? Only 8 deeds? I would have guessed more had been recorded by this point.

It's not uncommon for there to be so few at this point. Riv only opened in December. Only 2 or 3 locations had resales prior to a resort opening (and Riv was one). If it follows norms it'll be another year or eve a little longer before there is a consistent number of resale listings.

 

[Doberge]

It's not uncommon for there to be so few at this point. Riv only opened in December. Only 2 or 3 locations had resales prior to a resort opening (and Riv was one). If it follows norms it'll be another year or eve a little longer before there is a consistent number of resale listings.

Makes sense, I just thought I had seen more out there.

I saw a new listing today for 150 points with a Dec UY and 75 banked points, listed for $110. Apparently it immediately had multiple offers. $110 feels low, especially with banked points and what limited data we've seen. It is listed with a reseller that's bearish about Riviera resale, so that probably contributed to the lower price request, but it's unfortunate it wasn't listed higher to see what the market will bear. When "lower" ones like this are recorded it might skew numbers lower.

 

[Disneygal22]

What do you think the $110 RIV will sell at??

 

[poofyo101]

What do you think the $110 RIV will sell at??

Assume it would sell for full price if it had multiple offers ASAP

 

[Kickstart]

Very interesting thread....

Is the language in the contract (terms?) that RIV resale can only be used at RIV, or is it possible RIV resale may be allowed to book at future DVC resorts?

If it's definitely limited to just RIV, then I'm assuming DVC is trying to take over the resale portion of the business (i.e. establish a rate sheet on buy back prices, and not have to deal with the whole ROFR process). I'm also thinking at some point DVC will have to stop building new resorts (at least at WDW) unless they significantly expand the parks. It just seems like WDW is too crowded now as it is. If I become a DVC owner, I'm really going to be hoping they don't build many more resorts (especially Reflections if I was to buy at CCV).

In about 11 years, the remaining DVC resort expiration's will be nicely staggered, so once 2054 hits... every two-three years one of the resorts will be expiring. They can do a major refurbishment and then sell it as the "new" resort. Until then they need to figure out how to keep the easy money flowing (build 4-6 new resorts over the next 11 years and try not to over saturate their own market? - IDK). Maybe the "over saturation" issue is solved by the 2042 expiring resorts, giving Disney plenty of time to figure out what they want to do with the 2024 real estate.

I assume it's a pretty safe bet all new DVC resorts will have the same resale restrictions as RIV. I think this means the end of the current resale market after the MK resorts get close to their expiration dates.

So, yeah, kind of rambling here... not sure if I have a point, except that Disney is probably trying to change (eliminate?) the resale narrative from the purchase process/decision. The "original 14" resorts will drop to 9 in 21 years, These remaining 9 resorts are all desirable, and nothing else will drop out for another 12 years... but then one more will drop off every couple of years after that. Not that big of a deal for then next 10-I5 years, but after that I don't see an optimist outlook for resale prices. If you're worried about getting out of DVC at a good resale price 20+ years from now, your best bet is probably to purchase one of the MK resorts direct. Otherwise, we should assume resale prices will be whatever DVC thinks they can keep it down to (sort of the reverse of the current situation).

 

[Sandisw]

Very interesting thread....

Is the language in the contract (terms?) that RIV resale can only be used at RIV, or is it possible RIV resale may be allowed to book at future DVC resorts?

If it's definitely limited to just RIV, then I'm assuming DVC is trying to take over the resale portion of the business (i.e. establish a rate sheet on buy back prices, and not have to deal with the whole ROFR process). I'm also thinking at some point DVC will have to stop building new resorts (at least at WDW) unless they significantly expand the parks. It just seems like WDW is too crowded now as it is. If I become a DVC owner, I'm really going to be hoping they don't build many more resorts (especially Reflections if I was to buy at CCV).

In about 11 years, the remaining DVC resort expiration's will be nicely staggered, so once 2054 hits... every two-three years one of the resorts will be expiring. They can do a major refurbishment and then sell it as the "new" resort. Until then they need to figure out how to keep the easy money flowing (build 4-6 new resorts over the next 11 years and try not to over saturate their own market? - IDK). Maybe the "over saturation" issue is solved by the 2042 expiring resorts, giving Disney plenty of time to figure out what they want to do with the 2024 real estate.

I assume it's a pretty safe bet all new DVC resorts will have the same resale restrictions as RIV. I think this means the end of the current resale market after the MK resorts get close to their expiration dates.

So, yeah, kind of rambling here... not sure if I have a point, except that Disney is probably trying to change (eliminate?) the resale narrative from the purchase process/decision. The "original 14" resorts will drop to 9 in 21 years, These remaining 9 resorts are all desirable, and nothing else will drop out for another 12 years... but then one more will drop off every couple of years after that. Not that big of a deal for then next 10-I5 years, but after that I don't see an optimist outlook for resale prices. If you're worried about getting out of DVC at a good resale price 20+ years from now, your best bet is probably to purchase one of the MK resorts direct. Otherwise, we should assume resale prices will be whatever DVC thinks they can keep it down to (sort of the reverse of the current situation).

Yes, the POS specifically states that. But it also gives them the right to take that restriction away, put it back, change things, make different programs for different members, etc,

Basically, they covered their bases if they decide to change things later on.

And, they made me sign a specific page that outlined it so there was no way to say it was buried in the fine print.

I think they want to change the product and this is a first step. I think..,just my guess...that will end up having some sort of cash option to qualify points or for RIV resale to pay a fee per reservation to be able to book at another resort.

Like if you own 100 RIV resale, you buy 100 direct, and all become qualified. So many different things they can do, but I would be very surprised if they ever just removed it,

 

[sethschroeder]

I'm also thinking at some point DVC will have to stop building new resorts (at least at WDW) unless they significantly expand the parks. It just seems like WDW is too crowded now as it is.

In reality much of the guests are not staying on property. They could go to AP or stay on site as the only options to get access to Disney (maybe just a single day ticket only option)

I could see the park reservations being used to restrict day guests further.

 

[CastAStone]

Makes sense, I just thought I had seen more out there.

I’m sure you have. Listing to recording is taking forever right now.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I think the anchoring effect on people's brains is powerful. RIV will never be cheaper than what they consider the low end of the DVC price range i.e. SSR, even if the product is totally different.

 

[CastAStone]

RIV will never be cheaper than what they consider the low end of the DVC price range i.e. SSR, even if the product is totally different.

Why do you think this?

 

[sethschroeder]

Why do you think this?

Answer me this if BCV, CCV, or POLY had the restriction right now of only staying at that resort would it be less than SSR? I don't think so.

People already do split stays and have some points at a MK resort and some points at a Epcot resort. RIV will just be the Epcot points that are exclusive for staying there so being locked in to that resort while limiting is what the expectation was for the points to start with.

So many people seem to just dismiss having easy quick access to Epcot (and even HS). There is a group out there who exclusively want to stay around Epcot or at least for the part of each stay want to stay next to Epcot.

Run this through your calculations:
9 nights in October in a Studio
BCV - 148 points @$130/point
BWV - 120 points @$110/point
BWV - 128 points @$110/point
RIV - 161 points @$90/point
RIV - 205 points @$90/point
*probably could get SSR for cheaper even

Also don't forget to in 2042 sell the RIV contract back for the same price you bought minus the 8% broker fee.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Very interesting thread....

Is the language in the contract (terms?) that RIV resale can only be used at RIV, or is it possible RIV resale may be allowed to book at future DVC resorts?

If it's definitely limited to just RIV, then I'm assuming DVC is trying to take over the resale portion of the business (i.e. establish a rate sheet on buy back prices, and not have to deal with the whole ROFR process). I'm also thinking at some point DVC will have to stop building new resorts (at least at WDW) unless they significantly expand the parks. It just seems like WDW is too crowded now as it is. If I become a DVC owner, I'm really going to be hoping they don't build many more resorts (especially Reflections if I was to buy at CCV).

In about 11 years, the remaining DVC resort expiration's will be nicely staggered, so once 2054 hits... every two-three years one of the resorts will be expiring. They can do a major refurbishment and then sell it as the "new" resort. Until then they need to figure out how to keep the easy money flowing (build 4-6 new resorts over the next 11 years and try not to over saturate their own market? - IDK). Maybe the "over saturation" issue is solved by the 2042 expiring resorts, giving Disney plenty of time to figure out what they want to do with the 2024 real estate.

I assume it's a pretty safe bet all new DVC resorts will have the same resale restrictions as RIV. I think this means the end of the current resale market after the MK resorts get close to their expiration dates.

So, yeah, kind of rambling here... not sure if I have a point, except that Disney is probably trying to change (eliminate?) the resale narrative from the purchase process/decision. The "original 14" resorts will drop to 9 in 21 years, These remaining 9 resorts are all desirable, and nothing else will drop out for another 12 years... but then one more will drop off every couple of years after that. Not that big of a deal for then next 10-I5 years, but after that I don't see an optimist outlook for resale prices. If you're worried about getting out of DVC at a good resale price 20+ years from now, your best bet is probably to purchase one of the MK resorts direct. Otherwise, we should assume resale prices will be whatever DVC thinks they can keep it down to (sort of the reverse of the current situation).

 

[EM Lawrence]

I think a vibrant resale market with high prices is actually good for DVC Direct. I know for certain that we would never have purchased DVC if we expected the value of it to be essentially zero after we purchased it. At the end of the day, that would make DVC just like any other timeshare, and everyone knows timeshares are a bad idea and a waste of money. If DVC is trying to kill the resale market long term, I think that would be shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[LTJoeFlo]

I’m going to put on my tin foil conspiracy theory hat for a minute. What if Disney doesn’t ever want Riviera to sell out. It has a lot of points, it has the resale restriction, and it feels different from the other DVC resortS (just my opinion).

I agree with @sethschroeder that the resale price will never get below SSR. Disney won’t allow that to happen. It will ROFR each one of those contracts and keep the value at a certain level. I also agree with others that DVC may eventually reach a hotel saturation point and they may need a new business model to prevent that from happening.

Maybe they keep the hotel selling at a certain price with only small yearly increases. If they can keep the price low when compared to resale prices for other resorts, it may make buying direct a more attractive proposition. They can continue to ROFR RIV contracts and resell them at a $180 price point. It’s a simple rinse and repeat process.

Everyone wins in this scenario. Buyers of RIV have price protection and Disney can increase their per point margins by being able to sell them multiple times.