Resale vs. Direct purchase first -- for first time owner?

[ray3127]

This times a million. I got into my first contract in January 2018 and right off the bat they raised the minimum direct points for perks to 75. Since then there's been dramatic price increases (both direct and resale), the big restrictions on resale, and a dramatic uptick in ROFR activity. I'm glad I didn't hesitate and just bought, it would have been brutal if I had waited.

This is also why we just added on 75 direct... Who knows when the prices or minimum point requirements will increase? The only thing I know for sure is they aren't going to decrease... And the way things have gone lately, I'd rather be safe than sorry.

That said, we bought resale first and matched with a direct last month.

 

[Katie L]

The only thing I know for sure is they aren't going to decrease... And the way things have gone lately, I'd rather be safe than sorry.

Sure they will. But not while the economy is as hot as it is right now.

 

[ray3127]

Sure they will. But not while the economy is as hot as it is right now.

Do you think the direct prices will decrease? Or the 75-point minimum for direct benefits? Or both?

 

[crvetter]

Do you think the direct prices will decrease? Or the 75-point minimum for direct benefits? Or both?

The only resort to ever have a hard price decrease (not through incentives) ever since DVC began, I believe, is SSR. It went from 104, June 2007, to 95, July 2010; though this muddied with the introduction of the Treehouse Villas reopening the resort for sales. I'm not sure when SSR sold-out but I think it was after that July 2010, perhaps, 2012?, maybe someone else can clarify. I suspect the price decrease was needed because that resort took forever and it was competing against, BLT, AKV, VGC all being sold direct at overlapping points in time and the economy wasn't helping either.

 

[ray3127]

The only resort to ever have a hard price decrease (not through incentives) ever since DVC began, I believe, is SSR. It went from 104, June 2007, to 95, July 2010. I'm not sure when SSR sold-out but I think it was after that July 2010, perhaps someone else can clarify. I suspect the price decrease was needed because that resort took forever and it was competing against, BLT, AKV, VGC all being sold direct at overlapping points in time and the economy wasn't helping either.

So, a giant resort that was competing against newer, more sought-after resorts, in the middle of a deep recession.

I stand by my belief that the direct prices will not drop, even in a recession, and especially for sold-out resorts.

Maybe they won't increase so rapidly... To me, a lengthened "pause" in increases is plausible if a recession hits. But even that is far less likely than continued increases.

And the minimum direct point requirements have never decreased since implementation. I can't imagine those are ever going anywhere except up.

So if a new buyer is certain they want 75 direct points for benefits, I don't think "wait and see what happens" is prudent advice... Don't rush into anything, but don't expect the cost/requirements to decrease.

 

[Katie L]

Do you think the direct prices will decrease? Or the 75-point minimum for direct benefits? Or both?

I think they will increase incentives in what amounts to an effective price decrease. I'd be surprised if they make changes to direct rules, etc. And depending on length of recession I think it's unlikely they decrease listed price but it's possible.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

If it was me making this decision I would buy the 75 direct points first because I would be nervous Disney would raise the prices and/or the minimum need. I do think you will be able to find the resale contract you want when the time comes if you are patient.

Although it's they've gotten pretty strong on 100 pt minimums for new buyers where existing members can add on as little as 25 points. Any increase is at worst going to be a wash buying more resale and would likely be more expensive than waiting to buy 75 vs 100 direct.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The only resort to ever have a hard price decrease (not through incentives) ever since DVC began, I believe, is SSR. It went from 104, June 2007, to 95, July 2010; though this muddied with the introduction of the Treehouse Villas reopening the resort for sales. I'm not sure when SSR sold-out but I think it was after that July 2010, perhaps, 2012?, maybe someone else can clarify. I suspect the price decrease was needed because that resort took forever and it was competing against, BLT, AKV, VGC all being sold direct at overlapping points in time and the economy wasn't helping either.

Really? I do not remember that with SSR. It still had incentives I thought and pricing was controlled that way but that's an interesting little factoid from a different era. The only one I was aware of was VB getting a direct price decrease and that was approx 5 years or so ago.

 

[crvetter]

Really? I do not remember that with SSR. It still had incentives I thought and pricing was controlled that way but that's an interesting little factoid from a different era. The only one I was aware of was VB getting a direct price decrease and that was approx 5 years or so ago.

I think it was likely because SSR went sold out for a short period of time before the Treehouse Villas were added. So if I were to guess that was partly the issue and when the Trehouse Villas were added there was quite a few resorts competing direct.

To be honest I didn't look at the sold out resorts only the times they were actively being sold. I would think Disney would just allow the resale market to bottom out like they did in 2008 crisis rather than try to buy back the points and flip them on the sold out resorts. Though this does bring up a question, does anyone know how active Disney was on fulfilling waitlists for sold out resorts during the crisis? I would guess it could have been either way really, slow or fast. Could have been fast as long as DVC wasn't buying back the points through ROFR on speculation of being able to sell direct but simply on fulfilling those sitting on the waitlist, but I could have seen them avoiding buying any through ROFR at all.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I think it was likely because SSR went sold out for a short period of time before the Treehouse Villas were added. So if I were to guess that was partly the issue and when the Trehouse Villas were added there was quite a few resorts competing direct.

To be honest I didn't look at the sold out resorts only the times they were actively being sold. I would think Disney would just allow the resale market to bottom out like they did in 2008 crisis rather than try to buy back the points and flip them on the sold out resorts. Though this does bring up a question, does anyone know how active Disney was on fulfilling waitlists for sold out resorts during the crisis? I would guess it could have been either way really, slow or fast. Could have been fast as long as DVC wasn't buying back the points through ROFR on speculation of being able to sell direct but simply on fulfilling those sitting on the waitlist, but I could have seen them avoiding buying any through ROFR at all.

I bought a couple of small contracts at sold out resorts during that time but it was very different and there really weren't waitlists or if there were they were very short. One was a small BCV add on and there was zero wait. They just had more inventory at certain resorts then as there probably were financed contracts at all of them that they were getting back plus they had been ROFRing contracts prior to things reaching that low point in 2010/2011. Pretty much you'd call about points and they'd send the contract.

 

[CraigInPA]

To be honest I didn't look at the sold out resorts only the times they were actively being sold. I would think Disney would just allow the resale market to bottom out like they did in 2008 crisis rather than try to buy back the points and flip them on the sold out resorts. Though this does bring up a question, does anyone know how active Disney was on fulfilling waitlists for sold out resorts during the crisis?

IIRC, Disney did not step up and grab low priced contracts through ROFR. They were already getting many contracts through defaults on loans, so I doubt they wanted any more from the ROFR process. The lack of buyers and the glut of contracts led to a lot of distressed sales at low prices.