Resale Questions

[mhopp77]

Hello we are interested in purchasing a disney resale but are aware that there are things changing after 3/20. So I have a few questions:

1. What are they changing after 3/11
2. If I purchase before the changes am I safe from those changes?

What are your recommendations? Would you do it again if you had the chance?

 

[DVCconvert]

1. What are they changing after 3/11
2. If I purchase before the changes am I safe from those changes?


1. Nothing exept for their desk calendars.




Contracts submitted for ROFR after the 21st however, will no longer be able to be used for reservations for DCL or the Disney Collection.

2. If your purchase agreement is submitted to DVC on or prior to 3/21 - AND IS APPROVED (within 30 days after submission) then yes, your contract will carry all the rights and liabilities of any other contract.

HTH

 

[mjc2003]

Hello we are interested in purchasing a disney resale but are aware that there are things changing after 3/20. So I have a few questions:

1. What are they changing after 3/11
2. If I purchase before the changes am I safe from those changes?

What are your recommendations? Would you do it again if you had the chance?

When you say "what are they changing after 3/11", I assume you meant to say 3/21?
We are in the midst of a resale purchase. If you find a resale contract, make an offer that's accepted, and the deal is sent to Disney by 3/20,what you are buying is no different than what you would get direct through Disney. The entire process of making an offer, getting it accepted and then getting it to Disney should take no more than 3-4 days. One reseller told me you could probably make an offer as late as 3/18 and get it in.

After 3/20 there will be restrictions as to what you can do with the points. You won't have access to Disney's Concierge Club (select high end hotels where you can use points), Disney's Adventure Club (exotic vacations), and Disney resorts outside of their Vacation Club properties, including Disney's Cruise Line. If you purchase before 3/20, you WILL have access to all these. After 3/20 you will be limited to Disney Vacation Club properties (there are 11), and RCI timeshare exchanges.

The reality is, an effective cost evaluation will show that there is little or no benefit in using points anywhere outside the Disney Vacation Club properties and--to a lesser extent---with RCI. Most members seem to agree with this.

We opted to buy in before the changes for a few reasons. 1) We wanted to buy at Beach Club and are not sure how much any change will affect the pricing since there a limited number of memberships available; 2) We don't know that we'll make it to WDW every year, so even if it's not effective we might still use the points on a Disney Cruise; 3) Disney is aggressively buying up Beach Club contracts, which leads me to believe that it's not going to be easier to get in after the change.

I was very tempted to wait. Many seem to believe that prices will go down. Either way, whether you buy a "fully functional" contract before 3/21 or a limited one after 3/21, if you have to sell you will be selling a limited contract. So, it's just about your own usage. Again, most would tell you that you get the best return on your investment with the usage that will still be available, so in many respects this change means very little.

Determine your own usage. If you see a contract that you like at a resort you like, make an offer. Check to see what contracts are going for, some places are quite cheap. At Boardwalk, for example, the last 8 contracts have sold for an average of $60.50. Will you get it for cheaper after 3/20? Maybe, but not by too much.
If you determine that your usage is going to strictly be limited to DVC properties, and possibly RCI, I would be quite hesitant to buy direct. Either way, you still have time, so if you want a fully usable contract I'd still go the resale route. I couldn't find a compelling reason not to (the only benefit that made any sense is the financing, but we are buying cash so this didn't affect us).

Hope this helps.

 

[EWL]

Check to see what contracts are going for, some places are quite cheap. At Boardwalk, for example, the last 8 contracts have sold for an average of $60.50.

This info is from the ROFR thread on here, it looks like? But that can take a month or so before folks pass ROFR and list their price, no? I wonder whether the flurry of pre-3/20 buying is driving prices higher and so if you go by those sales, you might offer too little and miss out?

 

[mjc2003]

Where do you find this info? Is it from the ROFR thread on here or somewhere else? thanks!

Yes, I took it from the ROFR thread; so, I probably should have clarified my statement to read, "The last 8 contracts posted here went for an average of $60.50".
I am sure there are others selling and buying through resale that don't post here.

But, the ROFR thread is quite comprehensive and probably gives a pretty fair representation of what's going on in the market.

 

[mjc2003]

This info is from the ROFR thread on here, it looks like? But that can take a month or so before folks pass ROFR and list their price, no? I wonder whether the flurry of pre-3/20 buying is driving prices higher and so if you go by those sales, you might offer too little and miss out?

Yes, the prices are somewhat of a lagging indicator, but it's all I have...and some are less than a month. Also, people are posting their contract price as they enter ROFR, and most are getting through (save for BCV). So, it almost seems as if a buyer and seller agree on a price, it's going to get through (unless it's absurd).

I don't know if the prices are being driven higher by the flurry of activity, or lower by sellers who are agreeing to low prices just b/c they want out before the 3/20 date. I theorized a few weeks ago that this change (which doesn't amount to much as far as practical usage according to some current DVC members) might be Disney's way of lowering resale inventory? In other words, there were so many contracts for sale, they couldn't get direct business unless they provided an impetus for movement on the resale market?

Who knows. If you look at the ROFR thread at contracts going through a year ago, BWV for example was selling for higher. So, I don't know that this activity is driving prices up.

If you are considering, good luck. We went back and forth and I spent a lot of time deciding what to do. I never reached a reasonable conclusion about what is going to happen, but I do know that I know what I'm getting right now, so we took the plunge. Ultimately I wanted a BCV contract and didn't want to wait any longer. Did I buy too soon? Maybe....probably! But, that's life.

I would look at the ROFR thread going back awhile and see if you can gauge the direction of pricing. I think they've come down. If you are interested, I believe you can even make multiple offers at once. Who knows, make an offer...if you like it, go for it! Verbal offers don't tie you to anything. It'll all happen very quickly, and it's pretty painless (as much as spending thousands of dollars can be painless!)

Good luck!

 

[EWL]

If you are considering, good luck.

Thank you! Yes, I have been considering but have over-analyzed it to death. I've gotten far enough to decide that if I bought, I'd be looking for 75 pts at AKV with an August use year with the intent of traveling every 3 years, or at most every other. But it is sobering to realize that one can't look 20 years ahead and know with any certainty what life holds. Yes we love the Disney product now, but would DW and I still go when DD (now 9) is 20 (perish the thought)?! I think so, but who knows. Right now we've always gone on promotions (free dining) and stayed in moderates, but would so like a more deluxe experience. But then I also have this nagging doubt about whether buying into DVC is sort of like surrendering to Disney and saying "here, take my money please"-- giving them little incentive (or need) to pursue your business down the road. Any other timeshare I would not even think about for a minute. Sigh.

 

[mjc2003]

Thank you! Yes, I have been considering but have over-analyzed it to death. I've gotten far enough to decide that if I bought, I'd be looking for 75 pts at AKV with an August use year with the intent of traveling every 3 years, or at most every other. But it is sobering to realize that one can't look 20 years ahead and know with any certainty what life holds. Yes we love the Disney product now, but would DW and I still go when DD (now 9) is 20 (perish the thought)?! I think so, but who knows. Right now we've always gone on promotions (free dining) and stayed in moderates, but would so like a more deluxe experience. But then I also have this nagging doubt about whether buying into DVC is sort of like surrendering to Disney and saying "here, take my money please"-- giving them little incentive (or need) to pursue your business down the road. Any other timeshare I would not even think about for a minute. Sigh.

I understand what you are saying, and trust me, nobody could over-analyze this more than me. Your situation is different, too b/c your looking at a 3 year window. I could not look 20 years out, so looked 10-15. That's as far as I'm willing to take it. When I did that, we decided 200 points at BCV would give us a 2 BR every 18 months (approx). Our girls are 5 and 2.5, and we are planning on more children, so we feel like we're timing it right. If you are planning every 3 years, think about this; your 9 year old will be 12 and then 15 before you've completed 2 trips. Would you be better off renting points? Maybe. You could get the deluxe accommodations without the commitment.
The way I looked at ours, we figured one trip every 18 months gives us 10 trips over 15 years; a bit ambitious, but not crazy. The last 3.5 of those trips would be essentially free. Your window is a bit different with less points and more time between trips.

I noticed that AKV contracts are going for $72-$75; perhaps offer $70, and see what happens? If you look at 9 years, depending on how you stay and when you go, you should be able to squeeze 4 weeks in a 1 BR, or even 5-6 trips in a studio. You'd be laying out about $5500 up front (including closing) and then another $3375 in dues, for a total of about 8875.00. Obviously these are approximations, but you get the idea.

To keep it simple, assume you go 4 times and get a 1 BR. The average rack rate would be about $500 a night. So you'd get 28 nights (4 weeks) that could cost up to $14,000. If you then sell it, after 9 years and 4 trips, let's say you get back $40 a point on your initial investment (very conservative). You'd recover $3000 (approx). So, you're net cash outlay would be about $5875 for about $14,000 worth or rooms.

OBVIOUSLY these numbers are loose. However, this is the method I used to make our decision. How many times will we really go? Will you really go 15 times over 30+ years, or is it easier to say you'll go 4 times in 9 years? You can play around with this formula, add a 5th trip and push out the commitment to 12 years....whatever works for you.

As for the "surrendering your money to Disney" thought, I hear ya. But, ultimately who makes out in the end? If you don't join and end up making 3-4 more trips, they've "won"! So take that sentiment out of the equation, and figure out a realistic level of commitment--then run the numbers, and if they work....it's just that simple.

Hope I didn't just confuse you more!

 

[EWL]

Hope I didn't just confuse you more!

Not at all-- it is really great to see how other people look at it, so thanks so much for sharing your thought process. You have a few points I had not considered, like recouping some amount by selling before it ends. So I am definitely going to play with your formula and see what kind of numbers come out. I know that we really are not the "ideal" candidates for DVC since we're not every year deluxe types, but maybe there is still a way it could work to our advantage, or maybe not-- and that is ok too. And you are right about who "won"-- after all, if we were not *already* hooked by the Mouse, we would not be on these boards, would we?!