Resale Prices

[BWV Dreamin]

As anyone familiar with Warren Buffett's philosophy can tell you, the market does not always price things appropriately. I think DVC is becoming an extreme example of that. At some of the prices some older resorts are going for, there aren't even substantial savings over simply staying on cash each year (in which case you get room service and a higher quality room, IMHO). I think the emotional component of these purchases introduces some price hysteria.

Resale prices are even making direct look very appealing in the case of the older resorts, i.e. I'd love to buy at VWL but not at $100pp with ~25 years left on the contract. Perversely it actually seems better to wait and spend the $180 or whatever they list the cabin points at.

Same argument can be made for purchasing certain stocks , i.e.: Google, Facebook. The IPO's were very high according to popular opinion but look where they are now. Like it or not we are not determining the price per point.

 

[Dean]

As anyone familiar with Warren Buffett's philosophy can tell you, the market does not always price things appropriately. I think DVC is becoming an extreme example of that. At some of the prices some older resorts are going for, there aren't even substantial savings over simply staying on cash each year (in which case you get room service and a higher quality room, IMHO). I think the emotional component of these purchases introduces some price hysteria.

Resale prices are even making direct look very appealing in the case of the older resorts, i.e. I'd love to buy at VWL but not at $100pp with ~25 years left on the contract. Perversely it actually seems better to wait and spend the $180 or whatever they list the cabin points at.

Even under the best of circumstances market forces don't work well for timeshares. They often undervalue them in general and comparatively speaking, overvalue DVC. While you can't completely separate the emotions out of this issue, I do agree that it often creates discrepancies within DVC.

 

[McCrae]

As anyone familiar with Warren Buffett's philosophy can tell you, the market does not always price things appropriately. I think DVC is becoming an extreme example of that. At some of the prices some older resorts are going for, there aren't even substantial savings over simply staying on cash each year (in which case you get room service and a higher quality room, IMHO). I think the emotional component of these purchases introduces some price hysteria.

Resale prices are even making direct look very appealing in the case of the older resorts, i.e. I'd love to buy at VWL but not at $100pp with ~25 years left on the contract. Perversely it actually seems better to wait and spend the $180 or whatever they list the cabin points at.

Whilst I agree that the upside potential for the older resorts is probably less than the newer resorts it's difficult to price in the value of the ability to switch to other resorts at 7 months.

From reading these boards some members buy at the older resorts with no intention of staying at them. They take the view that it's a cheaper way to access the more expensive resorts at 7 months.

I don't think your reference to WB is that relevant to your argument. You could easily counter argue that WB investment theory says that DVC is great value.

The biggest impact on DVC prices is longer term room rates at Disney resorts. You could argue that existing DVC prices are undervalued and should trade at a premium to existing room rates. You are locking in a price now, which based on previous history will rise much higher over the years.

 

[bksomody]

You are locking in a price now, which based on previous history will rise much higher over the years.

Do the amount of points required per room go up every year?

 

[JWG]

Do the amount of points required per room go up every year?

No. But maintenance fees and the price to buy points do (or seem to for buying in).

 

[RaymOOOnd]

Whilst I agree that the upside potential for the older resorts is probably less than the newer resorts it's difficult to price in the value of the ability to switch to other resorts at 7 months.

From reading these boards some members buy at the older resorts with no intention of staying at them. They take the view that it's a cheaper way to access the more expensive resorts at 7 months.

I don't think your reference to WB is that relevant to your argument. You could easily counter argue that WB investment theory says that DVC is great value.

The biggest impact on DVC prices is longer term room rates at Disney resorts. You could argue that existing DVC prices are undervalued and should trade at a premium to existing room rates. You are locking in a price now, which based on previous history will rise much higher over the years.

I think I really only mean that what the contracts are trading at isn't necessarily an indication of their real value, and that prospective buyers should be careful not to buy if/once things are so out of hand that the cost of the contract is more than the cost of similar arrangements purchased with cash (i.e. as a non-DVC member)

 

[bakerworld]

has anyone been able to buy direct from DVC for anything in FL other than the PVB? We've been waiting on 25 BC points since PVB openned.

 

[djohn06]

In this current environment, I would only stick to a purchase into SSR, OKW or AKV. BWV and BLT recently made a run in the past 6 to 8 months, so if you didn't buy them, you missed it. 8 months ago they had great value.

I also see pretty decent deals on VGF too.... Seems like you can still find something in the 140 range.

We will see over the next few months if prices dip. This tends to be the period where sellers may be a bit more determined to sell since dues are coming up.