Recession Planning

[MillauFr]

Looking forward to a recession here. There are so many construction projects here that the night sky is lit up with all of the lights form the construction cranes. The local newspaper keep running articles that we have more construction cranes than anywhere else in North America other than Toronto. The line at our permitting desk is still backed up to the elevators every day. Absolutely no signs of a recession.

 

[OhMari]

It taught me to get out of debt. I found the Budget Board here on the Dis and read how to snowball. I gathered every bill we had and took a long hard look and figured out a plan to get out of our debt in 5 years.

The only debt we have is a few more years on our new home we built, but it helps with our taxes to have some deductions, we can write off the interest.

We were one of the lucky few that went to Disney during the depression. The upgrades were the best. Plus the pin codes were awesome 40% off moderates or values and you would check in and they would send you to a Deluxe.
I just remembered about the pin codes this evening. I just got one in my email for this summer. I didn’t think those even existed anymore. 30% off a deluxe or a moderate. I was shocked to see that much off.

 

[tvguy]

Interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal on recessions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/has-the-recession-been-cancelled-11556311511

 

[runwad]

Interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal on recessions.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/has-the-recession-been-cancelled-11556311511

It's behind a pay wall, can you cut and paste it into a post?

 

[tvguy]

It's behind a pay wall, can you cut and paste it into a post?

Just click on the X in the upper right corner of the pay wall box, it will let you in.

 

[mentos]

I'm sidelining more cash and selling a few equity positions right now and will swoop in like a vulture to buy the market when people get fearful and sell!

I would never say this out loud, but since this is an online forum, why not.... I kind of can't wait for the next recession. I remember going to Disneyland 2007-2009 and that place was an absolute ghost town on a lot of days. I probably won't buy a second house, but businesses were desperate for buyers.

DVC VGC contracts were going for $80/pt after rebates, they're $195/pt on the resale market now. I'd scoop up a bunch of those, too!

 

[RamblingMad]

I'm sidelining more cash and selling a few equity positions right now and will swoop in like a vulture to buy the market when people get fearful and sell!

I would never say this out loud, but since this is an online forum, why not.... I kind of can't wait for the next recession. I remember going to Disneyland 2007-2009 and that place was an absolute ghost town on a lot of days. I probably won't buy a second house, but businesses were desperate for buyers.

DVC VGC contracts were going for $80/pt after rebates, they're $195/pt on the resale market now. I'd scoop up a bunch of those, too!

Makes more sense to buy DVC during a downturn than at the top of the market.

I’m about 30% cash. I took some off the table.

 

[tvguy]

I'm hoping to retire next year, and my retirement income will not be impacted by a recession. My buying power may be greater though if prices fall.

 

[MillauFr]

Makes more sense to buy DVC during a downturn than at the top of the market.

I’m about 30% cash. I took some off the table.

How do you know when to increase or decrease your cash %? I put 100% in stocks and forget about it. My timing skills are terrible.

 

[RamblingMad]

How do you know when to increase or decrease your cash %? I put 100% in stocks and forget about it. My timing skills are terrible.

I was 100% in stocks until March 2018. Now, I'm about 30-40% in stocks, 30% in cash (3-6 month treasuries), and alternative assets (PE, REITs, and preferred) make up the rest.

I compare the 3 year earnings yield to the 10 year investment grade yield. As long as the 3 year earnings yield is greater than the 10 year investment grade yield, I stay in stocks and/or alternative asset classes. Once, the 10 year investment grade yield is higher, I start selling off equities and buying short term treasuries. It helps that both the 3 and 6 month treasuries yield more than inflation right now.

Right now, I'm only expecting the S&P to give 4-5% annualized returns for the next decade, so I'm also looking for alternatives that can exceed those returns. And I want to have dry powder to purchase equities when they correct like they did last December.

 

[Carrie Ellis]

If we did not have kids I could plan like crazy! But, we are trying to help them or boost them off into life. Three will be in college next fall. But, the first two will be done May 2020 and then it will be just 1. It is just a really tight 4 years for us but then it should lighten up big time.

We are both Federal employees and this last January was an eye opener. I have always planned for the what ifs but when it really happens, holy cow! I see it as a blessing though. Everyone should understand the impact.

We bought land our last move 15 years ago. I raise my own meat, vegetables, eggs etc...If the world crashed we can survive.

This next Disney trip, I am really funding it differently. It is December. I donated plasma for all my tickets. I am doing Shopkicks and Swagbucks to fund the food and the extra activities. We are splitting a real nice VRBO and that was on paypal 6 months no interest last year so it is paid....I just think that I need to be careful just forking out a huge amount for vacation this year. I think our country is on the upswing but there is still some really messed up stuff going on.