Read my lips - No new VGF2 sales rumors

[Sandisw]

June 19th - booking for later opening. It'll still be spring technically. So lets say that sales start early May.

That’s probably a pretty good guess. The longer it takes to start sales, the longer I have to save to buy more points!

 

[The Jackal]

But, does it mean it will open to just book for later dates? Or do they mean stays will begin then? I think you can interpret either way.

I wouldn’t plan on staying there next spring or summer. You could book RIV in the spring/ summer of 2019, but the resort opened in December. They could be doing things differently, but if they opened some rooms, they would be doing construction in others. Not a great first impression for new owners.

 

[nuhusky123]

I wouldn’t plan on staying there next spring or summer. You could book RIV in the spring/ summer of 2019, but the resort opened in December. They could be doing things differently, but if they opened some rooms, they would be doing construction in others. Not a great first impression for new owners.

under normal circumstances I would agree. But let’s say I buy points in may and they are issued to me immediately as it’s direct. Gfv1 is open so now you have 2,000,000 points in the pool all going for gfv1

 

[Sandisw]

I wouldn’t plan on staying there next spring or summer. You could book RIV in the spring/ summer of 2019, but the resort opened in December. They could be doing things differently, but if they opened some rooms, they would be doing construction in others. Not a great first impression for new owners.

You could not use RIV points anywhere until the RIV resort opened. It would have created an unequal balance of points. I bought and could not use them to book any other resorts until after the official open date.

It will be the same here. Points for the resort studios that are sold before those rooms are ready for occupancy can not take rooms at other resorts when there is no room to go with it. So, anyone buying the new points won't be able to use them prior to those rooms being open.

Of course, they also have old VGF points to consider, but I am going to imagine that any direct points sold before the rooms are open will indeed be attached to the new rooms and thus, restricted from use in the system, including the old VGF building, until the new resort studios open for occupancy.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

under normal circumstances I would agree. But let’s say I buy points in may and they are issued to me immediately as it’s direct. Gfv1 is open so now you have 2,000,000 points in the pool all going for gfv1

In sales of a "new" addition it operates like this: Points can be sold anytime and they can be used only when they meet the following criteria. 1 - It's the UY that you receive your first set of points 2 - the resort is open for stays and 3 - the unit you own in is open for occupancy. #1 may come into play although probably not but #3 will definitely come into play just as it did when Kidani was being built and sold all while Jambo was open.

 

[CarolMN]

under normal circumstances I would agree. But let’s say I buy points in may and they are issued to me immediately as it’s direct. Gfv1 is open so now you have 2,000,000 points in the pool all going for gfv1

They are not going to sell 2M points all at once, and not everyone who buys will want to stay in the original building.

Initially, DVD will only declare a portion of the new building into the condominium. They can only sell the points representing declared units. They will only declare enough to keep ahead of sales. (They can rent the undeclared studios for cash, which goes to their bottom line). The declared resort studios will be available for anyone to book with points as soon as they are declared, subject to the booking rules.

I think many here are just assuming the worst.

 

[The Jackal]

So I think we can assume Spring for VGF2 sales.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Disney flipped the various All Star Movies and Music buildings in about 75-80 days a piece, removing and replacing all of the furniture, drywall, bathroom fixtures, and appliances in 192 rooms. So I see no reason they couldn’t do 200 (admittedly larger) rooms here in ~100 days. Spring onsale for a summer open.

 

[corpcomp]

under normal circumstances I would agree. But let’s say I buy points in may and they are issued to me immediately as it’s direct. Gfv1 is open so now you have 2,000,000 points in the pool all going for gfv1

I'm cursed as a math / statistics guy. Assuming WDW applies the same number of points as GFV1 (about 17-18 points in a studio), for 200 rooms across 365 days, that would be about 1,300,000+ points.

The more important question is what are they going to charge per point? You can guess it will be over $200 per point (unless there is a deal up front) and at that level they will have revenues of at least $260,000,000 on the conversion, excluding the cost of conversion and excluding the yearly maintenance fees they will charge.

At $700+ per night for a cash paying guest, (and way more than that for the more exclusive rooms / views, that's about $51,000,000+ a year or about 5 years revenue in advance. So its a smart move increasing revenues for 2022 (excluding all the additional money they are nailing us for Genie+ & ILL and eliminating DVC AP discounts). They will likely do a conversion every three years or so.

I am guessing not before June.