Rainy Thanksgiving...through Dec 5th?

[CalvaryMike]

Don't look now folks, but it looks like So Cal could be getting some significant rain starting the 26th. Although we badly need the rain, this could be bad for our burn areas. There are two systems. The first one is looking like the 26th and the second system may hit on the 29th with an one day break in between.

This showed up on a couple of the weather models a couple of weeks ago, But, now all of the models seem to be in agreement with this. There's more validity in the first storm because it's in the 10-day models.

Just thought, I'd give you Thanksgiving visitors a little heads up.

 

[tinkerbelt]

As much as I love the rain, and would love to have some, you're right, this will be bad for the burn areas.

 

[lillybug]

Thank you for the heads up.

 

[disney-inspired]

As much as I love the rain, and would love to have some, you're right, this will be bad for the burn areas.

Because of the possible mudslides?

Or why?

 

[CalvaryMike]

Yes!!! With the vegatation on the hills gone, there's nothing to keep the mud from sliding!!

 

[prettyprincessbelle]

Blehhhhhhhhhhh!

I don't want a week of rain when I go to Disneyland!

 

[tracer]

On the other hand, won't the rain help to get rid of some of the smoke?

 

[dznee]

i second that about the smoke. And it might not be as crowded with the rain! But make sure you wear rain gear, or else you'll be

 

[Cant wait to go]

We will be there Sunday the 23rd for seven nights.....we are planing mon, tues, wed all day Disneyland and then taken it easy the rest of the week with going on and off so to speak.....we were going to have a day or two of just hanging out at the pool and doing some shopping downtown disney and stuff like that.....what is there to do in the rain? any ideas on our off days? Thanks

 

[LavenderPeach]

We will be there Sunday the 23rd for seven nights.....we are planing mon, tues, wed all day Disneyland and then taken it easy the rest of the week with going on and off so to speak.....we were going to have a day or two of just hanging out at the pool and doing some shopping downtown disney and stuff like that.....what is there to do in the rain? any ideas on our off days? Thanks

There's a movie theater in DTD so you could go see a movie. If you have kids there is the Discovery Science Center in Santa Ana which is pretty close to DL. I've never been there but I've heard it's good. There is also an indoor mall (called the Mainplace Mall) near the Discovery Center.

 

[CalvaryMike]

I don't put much validity in Weather.com, but they are now jumping on board with the rain scenario:

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USCA0027?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

Update: Some models this morning are showing a ridge building, which could eliminate the chance of rain. Stay tuned.

ALL THE MODELS ARE BRINGING ENERGY INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS ONE MIGHT SUSPECT THIS FAR OUT THERE IS LITTLE...NO MAKE THAT ZERO...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM FORECASTS. THERE LIKELY WILL BE RAIN AT SOME POINTS NEXT WEEK BUT ANY DEFINITIVE TIMING OR INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD HAVE THE ACCURACY OF A BLINDFOLD AND A DARTBOARD. AS SUCH BROAD BRUSHED A COOLER CLOUDIER FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS IT DEVELOPS.

 

[CalvaryMike]

"Cut-off low is a Weatherman's woes"

All bets are now off. Rain? No rain? Anybody's guess right now. With a cut-off low, predicting 3+ days out is a Vegas gamble.

Pack accordingly. We could really use the rain. But with the burn areas, just a light rainfall would be welcomed right now.

 

[Disney Dreams]

As for the "isn't rain good?" questions...

The cycle that has appeared in the past in So. Cal. is this:

- No rain for a very long time. (Creates REALLY dry brush)
- Fires begin (Sad to say, often due to some dumb person)
- Everything burns rapidly because everything is SOOO dry.
- Rain.
- Everything that has been burnt is now VERY loose, resulting in massive land sliding.
- More people lose their houses (and in some cases lives) because the land slides due to the rain on the freshly burned soil.

It's a horrible scenario and while the rain seems like a blessing, it creates even more tragedy.

- Dreams

 

[bumbershoot]

We will be there Sunday the 23rd for seven nights.....we are planing mon, tues, wed all day Disneyland and then taken it easy the rest of the week with going on and off so to speak.....we were going to have a day or two of just hanging out at the pool and doing some shopping downtown disney and stuff like that.....what is there to do in the rain? any ideas on our off days? Thanks

I believe there's also a movie theater in GardenWalk, and a bowling alley there as well!

That's what I've read, at least. Might want to check their website just in case.

 

[CalvaryMike]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST THU NOV 20 2008

RIGHT NOW THE MODELS HAVE THAT PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOCAL AND SHOWING SIGNS OF DRAWING NORTHWARD SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE EURO MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON CHANCE AND TIMING OF RAIN NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS WAFFLED BETWEEN WET AND DRY SOLUTIONS. WE MUCH PREFER THE EURO. SO WE HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THAT TIME. THIS WARM WET LOW MOVES EAST ON THANKSGIVING AS ANOTHER COLDER AND DEEPER LOW DEVELOPS RIGHT BEHIND THE FIRST LOW NEXT FRIDAY. THIS SECOND LOW COULD PROLONG SHOWERS AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT CONSISTENT...BUT WE ARE GAINING CONFIDENCE AT LEAST FOR THE WET PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.

 

[CalvaryMike]

Models are back to tracking rain (heavy at times) from 11/25 (Tuesday) through 12/05 (Friday). As we get closer to the 3 day window, the likely hood of rain is becoming probable.

If the first storm hits as currently tracking, it'll open the flood gates. Yikes! We don't need this much rain!

http://www.ggweather.com/loops/gfs_00z_sfc.shtml

 

[clymberz]

Should I just go? or cancel my reservations?

 

[glendalais]

Should I just go? or cancel my reservations?

I say come. I love the DLR in the rain.

Almost everyone leaves, so there are no lines for anything. With the exception of a few things, almost everything is open, so you can do so much more than normal.

Just remember to bring an umbrella and a poncho. If you forget, they'll be for sale at every store in the park.

 

[gatorfreud]

We went the last weekend in January 08 and it was supposed to be so horrid rainy - we almost cancelled. You know what? It was fine. It only started sprinkling Sat at about 5 when we were leaving anyway. Sunday it rained pretty hard in the afternoon, but we were able to time it around lunch and seeing Aladdin.

We are still headed for Thanksgiving - no way to change that! We'll just bring all the rain gear - we have lots from that trip, long raincoats, stroller covers, etc... The kids actaully love the rain - I think I just need to pack more clothes - and warmer ones too, I guess I can take out some of the shorts!

I'm hoping that the rain will scare away some of the locals and then it won't be crushingly crowded! Although, I would rather have the sun and the crowds, but if that's not possible, I'll just look on the bright side!

Kim

 

[CalvaryMike]

Latest update:

THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUE AND WED. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START VERY HIGH DUE TO THE MILD SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED THEN IT COULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON THE SW FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. COLDER WITH A LOWERING SNOW LEVEL THU AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THU AFTERNOON.