Questions about booking package through Costco and upgrading to AP

PTX

Earning My Ears
Joined
Sep 10, 2018
I hope this is the right place to ask this question. I'm looking to book a Costco package for Disneyland at a Good Neighbor Hotel for 5 nights for early 2019. There will be 2 adults and 1 child (4 y/o). We've been passport holders in the past, but have never booked a Costco package.

The cost of the room only through the hotel's website comes to $1677 after taxes. I'm planning to get three 5-day Park Hopper tickets (without MaxPass) with the plan of upgrading to So Cal Select Annual Passports during our trip after using the Magic Morning. It also let's us start our trip on a blockout days over the weekend. The cost of the three 5-day PH tickets through Disneyland's website is $1091. It's just a bit more for 3 So Cal Select APs ($1107).

Booking the room through the hotel and buying the three 5-day tickets from Disney separately would cost $2768.

Costco's package price for the same room and three 5-day PH tickets is $2241, a savings of ~$500. Plus there is the additional $145 Disney gift card (and the 2% Costco Executive Membership rebate).

It seems like a no-brainer to book through Costco. Is there a way to find the breakdown between the room cost and the ticket cost so I can have an idea of how much is going to be applied from our PH tickets to upgrading to the AP? The same room through Costco without a vacation package is $1538, suggesting the value of the 5-day PH tickets is around $700, or around $234 each. Does this seem about right?

Another reason for upgrading to an AP is because we're going to go again for another 5 nights in late 2019. I didn't realize how much of a discount it was going through Costco and I'm trying to figure out if it's just better to do the 5-day PH package through Costco for both trips without upgrading to the AP at all. We don't live close enough to just go for a day trip, so it's just the cost of these two trips that I'm trying to optimize. I know we'd lose out on the dining and merchandise discounts, but if the savings is great enough, it would make sense to forgo the APs.
 
Also, will there still be that level of ap when you go to upgrade? With the SWGE opening they may make more changes to the ap tiers.
 
Anyone have any advice? The So Cal Select AP block out calendar is available through the end of 2019, so I don't think there will be an issue with that pass disappearing.
 

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