Question about WDW attendance...

[Buschfan]

D-R, you are right that the other Orlando parks increased prices first. However, all of them are offering at least a $10 discount off admission with promotions through AAA and other coupons. Disney is the only park that is not discounting 1-day passes making their admission price higher than the competition. I stand by my statement that Disney is ignoring the discounts the other parks are offering on 1 day and season passes. They will continue to lose guests to other parks as a result. Disney can cut prices on hotels all they want, but it is not going to help their park attendance that much. The local market is helping the other parks get through these tough economic times and this demographic has little need to stay onsite even at reduced rates.

You make a good point about the price per park with a Florida resident rate. We would only like admission to Epcot and MGM on an annual basis. However, Disney only offers a pass to all 4 parks. Busch prices passes based on the parks you want to go to. You can just buy a pass to Sea World, not Busch Gardens and Adventure Island if you wish. Disney also needs to offer more season pass options to be competitive.

 

[raidermatt]

I think you're missing the point of what I said. I'm pointing out the fact that many people are scared to go to Disney World because it is an obvious and noted terrorist target.

No, not really, I was just bringing things up that have been reported and are starting to be substantiated.

I realize you have some anecdotal experience with people who claim they are only avoiding WDW because of fear over terrorism, but WDW is not the only potential terrorist target in the country, and there is little indication that this fear regarding WDW itself is the cause for very many people. After all, these are the same people that would also be avoiding travelling to places like Los Angeles and San Francisco, yet California is reporting that overall tourism is up this year over last.

 

[PKS44]

I actually think Disney is wise to not get into the discounting tickets game...it is a slippery slope---the problem is not that ticket prices are too high, it is that what they are offering for that price is too little......one way to distinguish yourself in a market can be by price--that is never the way Disney succeeded in the past- they distinguished themselves by offering a superior quality---their problems have come from trying to continue charging superior quality prices without making much of an effort to provide superior quality experiences...If their new business model is to compete on price, the kinds of profits they enjoyed in the past will never be seen again...they will be operating in a land of narrow margins and fierce competition...but the parks are currently run by a retailer who seems to feel more comfortable with that kind of business model...Disney can be the Nordstrom's of vacations or the Wal-mart...they cannot be both.

 

[Baileymouse]

Maybe one of the reasons that the on-site hotels are under utilized is that Disney sold so many people on the DVC. The people who always stayed on-site were the target customers for the DVC (like my family).

In the NYC area we haven't seen a huge decrease in the amount of air travel to FLA. I had better air rates before 9/11 - 118.75 r/t on Delta - than I do now. We're going down in Nov. for the traditional "Jersey Week" when kids are off from school and we couldn't book out of Newark even months in advance. Instead, we're trekking to Laguardia.
Downturn? What downturn?

 

[mjstaceyuofm]

Downturn? What downturn?

Kind of what I'm thinking. To the lay-person who doesn't follow the industry and visit every month and keep track of things, a 6-10% drop in attendance probably isn't that noticeable. Now I haven't been to WDW since 9/11, but every time before that the flights I've taken have been packed to Orlando (flying from Detroit Metro). The parks also seem to have attendance patterns similar to what's been documented (i.e. seasonal/holiday attendance). So people are flying to Orlando and by all means the parks have decent attendance, just not setting records every year.

I'm starting to convince myself that it's not the parks attendance, but the hotel occupancy rates that are causing the problems. If you can stay for $25 a night just outside DTD off-site, why stay on-site for significantly more. There's absolutely no significant perks for on-site guests anymore other than being a few minute closer to the parks (which actually can be a big deal if you visit off-season when things shut down early).

 

[d-r]

Just my opionion on one thing, I think I've flown 5 or 6 times since 9/11 last year. The flights have usually been full. But the thing is, there are fewer flights than there were before. I've had the experience a couple of times of having flight times shifted quite a bit, because two flights on the previous schedule were combined into one on the new schedule. I don't know the figures about this or if it still continues, but my impression is that there are fewer flights now than before. Could be wrong.

DR

 

[mjstaceyuofm]

No, I can believe what you are saying about the flights. My observations are purely unscientific.

 

[Bstanley]

There are really two seperate issues here.

First - the actual drop in the # visitors to Orlando is real.

If you go to the MCO (Orlando International AIrport) website you can see the statistics for # of travelers. Comparing month to month 2002 to 2001 there was a 20% drop in domestic travelers (30% international) in January and it's been improving so that in July (the last month where they show data) it was only 10% lower (20% international).

It's also interesting to note that the number of domestic travelers in 2001 was down from 2000 (about 5% - 10% depending on the month). So basically for every 100 people who visited Orlando in July 2000 only ~ 90 visited in 2001, and only ~ 80 visited in 2002.

Second - have the various cutbacks at WDW been the reason that people have chosen not to visit WDW?, or is it a general 'fear of flying'?, or is it the economy?, or etc. etc.

My personal opinion is that it's mostly the economy or a generalized reluctance to travel. I say that because most people who are going to WDW don't really investigate what's going on to decide whether to go or not. When people come to ask me questions about visiting WDW they never ask about the hours, or how many shows there are, or any of the things that we Disney 'fanatics' are so aware of. It's basic questions about crowds, costs, and timing.

 

[johare]

Johare, come on now. You can get a florida resident seasonal pass to walt disney world for about $160 - it has more black out dates than the universal pass does, but it has two more parks, too, and they stay open later in the off season. So, the special $99 rate at universal is about $50 per park, with two parks, sea world, one park $50 (until the end of the year, right), the $160 at wdw is about $40 per park for four parks

A Florida resident seasonal pass for WDW with blackout dates is $189. My USF/IOA annuals with NO blackout dates were $99. Could have gotten 2 years with no blackout dates for $159. That comes out to 71 cents per day for Disney and 27 cents per day for USF/IOA...22 cents per day if you go for the 2 year pass.
On top of that you get free parking at USF/IOA.

The point is though that compared to last year the other parks are trying to attract customers with deals and special offers. Not only is Disney NOT doing that, they actually increased the price of the Play 4 Days pass by 10%. That move cost them $400 from me.

 

[raidermatt]

The first instinct in these kinds of problems is to lower price. And its usually a mistake in the long term. This is one area where Disney is doing the right thing by keeping long term pricing in mind, rather than slashing prices to get people in the parks now with reduced margins.

mjstaceyuofm, airlines generally don't like to have flights, especially long distance ones, that aren't full or close to it. So they cancel flights if they are not full, keeping the plane you are on full.

Bstanley- You're right about most guests not knowing all of the details about hours, showtimes, etc. But, they do know what their last experience was like. And since cuts have been fairly steady (with a steep acceleration over the last year), for about 4 years now, it follows that those who visit WDW every 3 years, for example, would be just a tad less likely to visit now.

Certainly the Disney fanatics also have some impact...

I do agree however, that the economy/reluctance to fly is a very significant factor. However, this problem is exposing WDW's other self-inflicted problems. In challenging environments, the only companies that do well are strong, well-focused, and understand their product and what their customers truly want. Disney has lost some of that understanding, hence their decision to cut things that some guests consider critical to their Disney experience. The guest may not figure out that hours are 10% shorter than last time, but they will notice that they only get to be in MK at night once during their stay, or they only get one shot to see FITS and Spectro... And they will get the sense that it "just wasn't as good as the last trip...)

 

[Bstanley]

Mr. Matt, it is certainly a good question.

What is the long term impact of the cutbacks on the average 'tourist' visiting WDW this year? People go down to Disney on their once in three year WDW vacation and come back thinking - what? -> "You know WDW just isn't that much different than <fill in the blank> anymore" and maybe they decide to not come back for 5 years instead of 3...

Or when the economy picks up - do they forget/forgive and come back in 3 years anyway?

It may take several years to see the real impact.

 

[tstobb]

As a "regular" WDW visitor (3 hr drive), it seems to me that the reasons for lower attendance are not only because less people are travelling, the cut back in hours, the cutback in services, but also the cutback in SERVICE! 5 years ago, you could ask any cast member working at the MK what time the fireworks at Epcot were and they HAD to know the answer - now, more often than not, you get a blank stare or the wrong information. Case in point - we were recently at Epcot for 1 day following a 7 day DCL cruise (COMPLETELY different experience (read great) from the parks!) and I was looking for an ATM (park map isn't clear AND is wrong) and asked at guest services & got a wrong answer (sorry, that is a disabled telephone, NOT an ATM). Finally decided to return my stroller & use the ATM just outside the gate (that I knew was there) and the stroller attendant gave detailed, correct directions to the closest ATM (behind DVC booth).
Point being that the level of training of cast members has declined greatly (starting way before 9/11) and this is the main reason we're going back less & less.

 

[montessori]

quote:
In talking with co-workers and friends, I've become aware that Disney really may be powerless to correct their tourist slump. What I'm hearing is that many think that Disney World is a terrorist target, and they don't want to be near something that is an obvious target.

This comes as a surprise to me. I haven't heard anyone express concern about a terrorist attack at DW and I talk to lots of people who vacation there.

Many of you have posted excellent theories about Disney's financial status and business operations. I won't pretend to be as astute in these matters.

I try to visit DW every other month or so. I feel a little depressed when I know I am not going there within the next few weeks! Sad, but true. That said, I am disappointed in some of the cutbacks. I definately see a difference in the CM's and I agree that the MK should never close before dark (even though we hardly go there anymore). I think maybe I am in car #2 now, not sure though.

I live 3 hours away from DW. I own a pre-school. I help plan many Disney vacations for young families who don't know about all this stuff. Each and every family has a magical vacation and begins saving and planning for the next one as soon as they return home.
Maybe we know too much, we dissect and pick apart every little thing about Disney World. I'm going to fight it though, I want to wear my rose-colored glasses for a while longer!

 

[NotUrsula]

I can think of several factors which are adversely influencing attendance right now:

1. News has been slow lately, so all of the networks are playing the hurricane season hype for all it's worth. They are giving the impression that the entire southeast quadrant of the US is under several feet of water. I even heard an NPR show host out of NYC tell a phoned-in panelist that "it must be really awful in Orlando right now with the hurricane." The panelist pointed out that the weather was perfectly sunny.

2. WDW ticket prices are high. This is not unusual, of course, but the economy is tanking at the moment, and someone in fear of his/her job is not going to blithely sink $1000 into theme park tickets for a family of 5. How to get around that? Packages. Discount the h*** out of limited expiration passes in low season with a minimum onsite stay. People buy packages on impulse if they think they are getting a good deal.

3. The killing of EE was a death-blow to off-season onsite bookings. So far, the resurrection has not been trumpeted nearly enough. Start inviting in the radio DJ's to do onsite stints; that always has a huge positive response. (If the rooms are empty anyway, why not comp them to radio personalities to get some free airtime?) Throw in a free stay giveaway and the stations will be knocking down the doors to participate. Push atmosphere and dining to older guests who are not that interested in theme parks, but love eating well.

4. Fall and spring airfares to Florida are MUCH higher this year than they have been in past years. Add higher rental car charges and the dampening effect is obvious. I flew from STL to MCO last year on Sept. 19th; my previously-booked airfare was $109 rt. When I looked to book the same general dates this year, the best I could find was $168.

I have not heard anyone say that they are really worried about WDW's chances for a terrorist attack. Personally, I don't think it would be chosen as a target; too many children. Even in the Arab press, deliberate targeting of thousands of young children would not be well-received.

The other thing I think that WDW should be doing right now is heavily discounting big-ticket purchases for DC members and AP holders. These are people who really WANT to spend money with Disney; make it worth their while to keep that card.