Question about Crowd Projection

[Belle_princess]

This year is the first time I've heard of easywdw.com and Josh's crowd projections. How accurate are they? I'm trying to create a temporary itinerary for January, so I can make my ADRs next week. Thanks.

 

[rwdavis2]

Although nothing is obviously 100% accurate, I like Josh's projections because you can read the underlying rationale for them. He discusses how EMH will affect crowds, special events, etc. Therefore I would probably trust his specific touring plans as well.

I used them last year to pick which parks for what day and it worked well enough. I pretty much know how do tour a park without a specific plan to avoid long lines.

 

[LilyWDW]

I use Josh's predictions after having a personal experience of his being more accurate then the others out there. That said, you do have to remember that it is a forecasting model and can not be 100% perfect. Josh is using historic information to make a guess on the future. It's just the nature of that sort of model (I use them in the business world).

But I do think it is better then just picking stuff out of a hat AND it's free!

 

[Sandy Fisher]

We always figured we could trust them MOST of the time. However, a stretch of lousy weather means that the crowds will come back as soon as it clears, throwing all the predictions into change mode.
And I think the past year a lot of them were off. Not sure if that's attributable to FP+ and the new things in Fantasyland, etc.
Josh bases his on things that are going on in all the parks, and even seasonal numbers can change from day to day.

 

[lvcourtneyy]

To me it's always seemed accurate. His rationales are logical and any time that I've checked the wait times in a recommended park vs a non-recommended park, there is a difference.

It's of course relative to the time of year too. A recommended day in July still won't be like September crowds.