PVB Tower Charts, Sales Date and more!!!

[AstroBlasters]

I don't understand nearly as much as you guys and if I was deciding between $225 and $170 with money not being an issue, I would definitely go direct.

Isn't there just as much of a chance that any contracts prior to 2042 won't have access to the Epcot resorts though?
If they flip and resell and a higher point chart isn't that basically making a new resort like the RIV?

Asking because again, I don't have a ton of DVC knowledge but on a 250pt contract like I have $225 - $170 is over $13,000 in savings.

You are asking very good questions, which is the whole point of this board.

1) I hypothesize that at the 250 point level Poly will have some very nice incentives. If for some reason they are stingy right out of the gate, they will put them on before it sells out. However a lot of people predicted it would start at $250pp… so at $225 they are already showing the desire to align with the other WDW resorts.

2) Anything can happen, but I have not seen anyone predict that points purchased direct will be unable to access future DVC resorts… whether new builds or new associations (i.e. expiring 2042 resorts). Could Disney just take the buildings and turn them into hotels? Sure. But, they make more money reselling it as DVC and locking in the high occupancy rates.

3) Yes. The current association would expire and they would create a new association that people could buy into.

I think it comes down to thinking about what is most likely to happen vs scenarios that could happen but are unlikely to happen because they are not in Disney’s best interest.

 

[DanCali]

Riv resale is between $110 & $125,

Asking prices are not selling prices.... 1/3 of the listing out there are older than 8 months - so people list them at that price range (or higher) and buyers and not buying them. I suspect that that do sell, sell closer to $100.

And it's only been open for 4 years so you hardly have a regular flow of sellers yet, which is likely to further reduce prices.

 

[Brian Noble]

Which I personally think will be the beginning of the end for DVC as we know it. The overall value dies as it turns into a regular timeshare.

I disagree.

For starters, it has always been "a regular timeshare." Any belief to the contrary is an effect of the pixie-dust-fueled Reality Distortion Field.

The value of any timeshare is in using it. And, that use has economic value if using the timeshare as an owner produces stays that are less expensive than renting the same stays on the open market.

Now the "value of owning" is not the same as "the price you would get if you sold it." And, it is often the case that the selling price does not reflect the inherent value, because timeshare is typically a product that is sold, not bought. This is one area where Disney has an advantage, in that the pixie-dust RDF generates a horde of fanatics who know they want to go back often, and who are willing to invest the time to learn what a timeshare is and why owning one might save them money. So, the market of "ready buyers" is larger relative to the market of "ready sellers" vs. most other timeshares.

There are exceptions to this: ski weeks at ski-in/ski-out resorts, ocean-front resorts during peak seasons in prime beach vacation destinations, etc. In other words: places where the resort enjoys an unusual and hard-to-replicate location advantage.

In other words, Disney is not the only timeshare that retains some value on the resale market. Disney is not even the only timeshare where owners who bought from the developer many years ago can sell for a higher dollar amount than they bought.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

Asking prices are not selling prices....

And it's only been open for 4 years so you hardly have a regular flow of sellers yet, which is likely to further reduce prices.

It’s not just riveria that resale is down on though. BLT used to go for 150-160 pre covid. I see stuff passing in the 110s. Is it the beginning of the end for all resorts? The spike with grand Floridian resale was temporary and so will the Polynesian. I’m curious if the resale prices will ever go up again or if it takes Disney raising direct prices to $300 for that to happen.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Unpopular opinion: We love Pago Pago, it’s right next to the TTC. And it is a smaller longhouse, and tends to be quieter, in my experience.

This is not an unpopular opinion...not by me anyway lol. I absolutely loved walking off the monorail at the TTC and being in my room within 5 minutes. Also the standard view room I got actually saw some fireworks so all in all not too shabby! I would definitely ask to stay there every time.

 

[Chili327]

I disagree.

For starters, it has always been "a regular timeshare." Any belief to the contrary is an effect of the pixie-dust-fueled Reality Distortion Field.

My point was more referring to resale value, where most other timeshares you have to give away to get out of it, and DVC had great resale value.

 

[disneydad7281231]

No, they can’t change a current or past resort/contract.

I am confused by this statement. Do you mean current direct contracts have something in them saying they will include ALL futures resorts?

 

[Chili327]

I am confused by this statement. Do you mean current direct contracts have something in them saying they will include ALL futures resorts?

Basically yes, whatever is allowed when you buy it will always be allowed.

If I’m understanding what you’re asking… you’re wondering if direct points will ever be restricted to home resort only?

Direct should always be able to use at all resorts, yes. BUT I guess you never know, not sure why they would ever do that.

*edit*
I feel like there might be some confusion on what “direct” means.

 

[disneydad7281231]

You are asking very good questions, which is the whole point of this board.

1) I hypothesize that at the 250 point level Poly will have some very nice incentives. If for some reason they are stingy right out of the gate, they will put them on before it sells out. However a lot of people predicted it would start at $250pp… so at $225 they are already showing the desire to align with the other WDW resorts.

2) Anything can happen, but I have not seen anyone predict that points purchased direct will be unable to access future DVC resorts… whether new builds or new associations (i.e. expiring 2042 resorts). Could Disney just take the buildings and turn them into hotels? Sure. But, they make more money reselling it as DVC and locking in the high occupancy rates.

3) Yes. The current association would expire and they would create a new association that people could buy into.

I think it comes down to thinking about what is most likely to happen vs scenarios that could happen but are unlikely to happen because they are not in Disney’s best interest.

$225 is less then I thought. I bought less then a year ago and looked at PVB direct or even RIV direct because I plan to own for as long as I am able, but I got my poly right before it turned so $112 was less then half price and a no brainer. It was not having to finance or having to finance.

I do agree it is less likely direct is told you can't book at new resort but I guess I am trying to be hopeful that my resale will be good for the 2042 resorts and they make some exception to the new RIV rule since so many resale owners would lose nearly half their options.

Seems like they did good by Poly owners since they didn't have 1BR or 2BR options... maybe they will be generous in 2042 and still make tons selling new contracts lol

 

[disneydad7281231]

Basically yes, whatever is allowed when you buy it will always be allowed.

Those 2042 resorts were allowed when I bought my resale so won't then always be allowed then?
Just like resale prior to 2019 got all resorts so are allowed to use at RIV.

NOT BE ARGUMENTATIVE! Just trying to understand lol

 

[paslaugh]

If I am right about these things, then a resale owner has no Epcot-area resorts starting in February of 2042.

I feel like this is a greatly exaggerated issue for resale buyers. With a liquid and thriving rental market it’s so easy to sell your points or a confirmed reservation and then just use the cash to stay where you want. This was the only way we were able to stay at VGC during the comeback of the Disneyland runDisney races in Jan 2024.

 

[Tatebeck]

Riv resale is between $110 & $125, granted there’d be commission and other costs to consider if selling. 150 direct (incentives get better at higher points) member with Welcome Home is $198 before MB. That’s closer to 40%, and it’d feel even less in my opinion if taking advantage of MB for year one.

Long term, in 17 years non-grandfathered resale buyers of anything other than Riv will be locked out of Epcot area (whatever they do at Crescent Lake will need new direct buy-in at first). Riv will hold some value from that alone.

Exactly. One of the reasons I chose RIV direct and my others resale. We love the Epcot/Crescent lake area! Also, once it sells out it will be harder to book there as Disney isn't holding a bunch of rooms to book as hotel rooms like they do for most of the other resorts. If you love RIV you will have to have points or rent points

Right direct poly is certainly a no brainer vs resale at the moment, but because Riviera is so incentivized right now I'm tempted to go 250 there instead of 150 at the poly.

If the poly doesn't have any incentives, that is 150 points is 30750 with magical beginngs. 250 Riveria points would be 41000 with magical beginnings. 100 more points for 10,000 and 4 more total years on the contract.

Because they have artificially run up the resale price that makes direct a good deal?? I feel like it's exactly the opposite. With even more Poly points out there, I figure long term the resale price will get back to or below what it was at before. And due to it being the same association and not restricted, I would consider a resale if it goes down to what it was at before, but probably not direct unless there are some great incentives

Is this confirmed? I thought the outlook on 2042 was no one knows exactly what will happen with the expiring resorts.

Like others have said, it's highly likely they would let the associations expire and reopen BWV and BCV as new associations, and all the new associations have been resale restricted for recent resale buyers

 

[DanCali]

It’s not just riveria that resale is down on though. BLT used to go for 150-160 pre covid. I see stuff passing in the 110s. Is it the beginning of the end for all resorts? The spike with grand Floridian resale was temporary and so will the Polynesian. I’m curious if the resale prices will ever go up again or if it takes Disney raising direct prices to $300 for that to happen.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is the following:

You will have two resale buckets - the O14 and the restricted resorts. Everything else close to equal, (IMO) there will be a relatively big price difference between those buckets on the resale market reflecting the flexibility, or lack of flexibility of the resale contract. There are only so many people willing to buy a 1-resort contract for $100+, especially in Orlando where you have so many other alternatives that are more flexible.

Prices of both of the buckets can fluctuate up and down based on the economy, annual dues, and other factors.

 

[AstroBlasters]

$225 is less then I thought. I bought less then a year ago and looked at PVB direct or even RIV direct because I plan to own for as long as I am able, but I got my poly right before it turned so $112 was less then half price and a no brainer. It was not having to finance or having to finance.

I do agree it is less likely direct is told you can't book at new resort but I guess I am trying to be hopeful that my resale will be good for the 2042 resorts and they make some exception to the new RIV rule since so many resale owners would lose nearly half their options.

Seems like they did good by Poly owners since they didn't have 1BR or 2BR options... maybe they will be generous in 2042 and still make tons selling new contracts lol

Boardwalk has about 3.9m points. So if they sold those for $200pp in todays dollars that would give them $780m in new money. But of course they will increase the point chart and sell more points. So a 30% increase in points could lead to over $1 billion in new money.

I just can’t see a scenario they don’t take the $1b in new money. Even if it takes $200m to renovate… that’s still $800m within 1-3 years to sell the place.

 

[AstroBlasters]

just for sake of the argument: a lot of resorts go offline in 2024. They might not want to replace all of them at the same time and you probably can’t resell them for another 50 years without major refurbishments. They might decide to sell shorter extensions for some.

I don’t believe that’s what they’ll do. I believe they’ll take them back and roll them into a combined trust that enables them to sell the points directly but replace the buildings over time. Just my pet theory.

They don’t really all go “offline”. They can just rent them out as they want for cash hotel rooms while they decide what to do.

 

[JackosinDIS]

What’s everyone’s bet on the incentives on this (if any)? I’m going for $8pp at the 150 level, $10 at 250 up to $20 at the 1000 point level. No welcome home, but MB offered on 2024 points.

 

[disneydad7281231]

Boardwalk has about 3.9m points. So if they sold those for $200pp in todays dollars that would give them $780m in new money. But of course they will increase the point chart and sell more points. So a 30% increase in points could lead to over $1 billion in new money.

I just can’t see a scenario they don’t take the $1b in new money. Even if it takes $200m to renovate… that’s still $800m within 1-3 years to sell the place.

Can't they still allow any current contracts to use points at Boardwalk and still sell 3.9m points?
Obviously if they don't allow resale it'll force people to buy, but I think regardless you'll have all those 2042 expiration owners looking to buy again or those that don't own there trying to get their slice. Personally I could see myself buying BCV in 2042 depending on what they do I just didn't want to buy resale now being 31 and knowing it expires so soon.

 

[walt34]

They don’t really all go “offline”. They can just rent them out as they want for cash hotel rooms while they decide what to do.

I really doubt they’d like to have an increase in cash room capacity of this magnitude on their hands. If demand is in any way similar to now in 2042, more deluxe rooms would be really difficult to fill. It certainly won’t jump sufficiently from 2041 to 2042.

 

[Tatebeck]

Can't they still allow any current contracts to use points at Boardwalk and still sell 3.9m points?
Obviously if they don't allow resale it'll force people to buy, but I think regardless you'll have all those 2042 expiration owners looking to buy again or those that don't own there trying to get their slice. Personally I could see myself buying BCV in 2042 depending on what they do I just didn't want to buy resale now being 31 and knowing it expires so soon.

Technically they COULD allow resale owners to still book there, but it's very unlikely. They will have a bunch of owners who loved the location enough to buy there once, suddenly without points there. They wouldn't want to steer them to buying resale from someone else while still footing the bill for turning the resort over and renewing or rebuilding it. They would want those owner to rebuy points direct from Disney themselves.

They could rent some of the expired rooms for cash, rebuild/work on others, then slowly declare the reworked or rebuilt rooms and sell them as a new association. I feel this is the most likely plan

 

[disneydad7281231]

Technically they COULD allow resale owners to still book there, but it's very unlikely. They will have a bunch of owners who loved the location enough to buy there once, suddenly without points there. They wouldn't want to steer them to buying resale from someone else while still footing the bill for turning the resort over and renewing or rebuilding it. They would want those owner to rebuy points direct from Disney themselves.

They could rent some of the expired rooms for cash, rebuild/work on others, then slowly declare the reworked or rebuilt rooms and sell them as a new association. I feel this is the most likely plan

Isn't that the argument for Island Tower though? Could have forced those that want to stay there to buy there but didn't. Renewing or even just reselling BCV, BWV, etc. will be a lot cheaper then building a brand new resort like Island Tower... I would think at least.