Depends when you go and room type. There's another post with same question the other day. I did a quick check for 7 months hence, and there was a lot of 1 week studio availibility. 1 beds off peak you can easily get anywhere 7 months. Again, same check showed every single resort and every single room category for 7 months hence for a full week for 1 bed, save for a BLT standard. Even VGC was open for a 1 bed.
I cannot see 1 bedsl bookers been unable to get bookings at 7 months off peak anytime soon. It' not hit or miss, its wide open. There would have to be huge changes in patterns. There's nothing on the cards that would cause this.
As to they will build more resorts it will get more difficult, I can see that potentially this applies to monorail resorts but it very much depends.
For example - Riviera, if its gondola is fantastic and it is a great resort, people may prefer it over BLT. Who know? Particularly with Star Wars and proximity to HS and the points per night are not too high (last one maybe wishful thinking).
If they build Bay Lake 2, you will always have owners who book late and get whatever they can- opening up Bay Lake 2 as more monorail availibility.
I think a few things contributed to it getting more difficult to book at 7 months. First generally people getting more savvy. It' a self reducing cycle of behaviour - I couldn't get my room last time, will book earlier.. and the next person thus books earlier etc. Renting was another. Now people don't let points expire. SSR did add in 888 rooms in what some perceive as a less desirable location. Points cost per night going up in newer resorts, people gravitated to the cheaper but perceived as better resorts. However that affects BWV more than Poly.
As to the dues issue of buying to get a 1 bed, dues at SSR are much cheaper than Copper Creek for example so it's not 100% more by any stretch. If you would be happy staying in a studio, the extra points could be looked at as insurance. Get the studio at 7 month, great - rent out the 50% extra points and basically cover all your dues. Don't get it, then enjoy your 1 bed at Grand Floridian with your resale points that cost less than the guy who bought enough for only a studio at Grand Floridian and couldn't actually get his studio at 11 months (it can happen).
Overall if you travel off peak and are buying to book at 7 months and to use different resorts every time (the attraction of
DVC for me) then the buy enough points for a 1 bed I believe is an excellent strategy. If like me you only stay in a 1 bed anyway, and your pattern is off peak travel, paying more is a waste of money IMO.
And because 1 beds are wide open at 7 when I go, I don't book at 11 and switch. I just book at 7- no issue.
Cheers.