Pros & Cons of Selling to Buy

[glamdring269]

We have one contract and it is a tiny one, 75 points @ a 2042 Resort. This is actually plenty of points for us as we might go once per year but more likely it's every other year. I'm considering putting this one up for sale as I believe the earliest we will return at this point is late 2021 due to CV19 unless we bank and decide to delay to late 2022. I am not attached to our home resort to be honest, we've actually only stayed there once as part of a split stay.

So, here is what I'm thinking...

1) Sell this contract. Put it up almost immediately while some value still holds during CV-19. (Assumes market will drop but either way 2042 should eventually drop regardless)
2) I bought in 2012 or 2013. If I sell right now I have no doubt that even after commission I'm going to be at worst even.
3) Hold out a few months to see where the market goes.
4) Buy a contract at one of the other non-2042 resorts that we really enjoy. AKV or Poly more than likely, though we might consider BLT.

What am I overlooking here? I know I will lose blue card benefits but given our travel frequency I just don't see it being a big deal for us. We would lose the flexibility to trade into the newer resorts but I figure I could always rent points for those if I really wanted to stay there. Anything else to consider?

 

[CarolMN]

Given what you have posted, I would sell the 75 point contract now and wait at least a year or so to buy a new one.

Good luck with your decision, whatever it may be. Stay well.

 

[Sandisw]

As someone who has sold both my BWV contracts to repurchase RiV and BLT, I’d say sell now and then watch the market,

My current BWV sale doesn’t close until end of June. I was going to wait until then to start looking so we had cash in hand And were in no rush because we have plenty of poijt s

However, the perfect contract at BLT showed up and we decided to buy now,

The nice thing is you have time!

 

[macman123]

My perfect BLT came up. Brand new owner - got 2 x 200 point contracts with full banked points! Yay

 

[tamu91]

Looking for a soft spot in the market is a wise decision. But I'd suggest having a target price in mind and when you see that perfect contract come up for sale, jump on it. If you contact one of the reputable resellers, they'll provide you enough data to establish your own trend. Good luck

 

[glamdring269]

For those of you who have sold, are you aware of any tax implications of selling now and waiting to buy later? They may be completely separate and unrelated transactions and not at all similar to selling and buying a house. Not a deal breaker for me either way just something that occurred to me.

 

[iflyjetzzz]

For those of you who have sold, are you aware of any tax implications of selling now and waiting to buy later? They may be completely separate and unrelated transactions and not at all similar to selling and buying a house. Not a deal breaker for me either way just something that occurred to me.

The link below indicates that you'd have capital gains on any profit.
I don't know how old this link is, but it's probably correct: https://tug2.net/timeshare_advice/income_taxes_and_timeshares_from_an_accountant.html

 

[iflyjetzzz]

As to the original question, I'd sell and plan on buying back later. This is an opportunity for you to sell what you have and buy at a resort that you'd prefer - along with extending beyond 2042.

I've noticed that the low price point of the year for resales starts in November and runs through January. YMMV.

After reading this, I may sell both of our contracts and look at buying again around Christmas 2021.

 

[Eric Smith]

We have one contract and it is a tiny one, 75 points @ a 2042 Resort. This is actually plenty of points for us as we might go once per year but more likely it's every other year. I'm considering putting this one up for sale as I believe the earliest we will return at this point is late 2021 due to CV19 unless we bank and decide to delay to late 2022. I am not attached to our home resort to be honest, we've actually only stayed there once as part of a split stay.

So, here is what I'm thinking...

1) Sell this contract. Put it up almost immediately while some value still holds during CV-19. (Assumes market will drop but either way 2042 should eventually drop regardless)
2) I bought in 2012 or 2013. If I sell right now I have no doubt that even after commission I'm going to be at worst even.
3) Hold out a few months to see where the market goes.
4) Buy a contract at one of the other non-2042 resorts that we really enjoy. AKV or Poly more than likely, though we might consider BLT.

What am I overlooking here? I know I will lose blue card benefits but given our travel frequency I just don't see it being a big deal for us. We would lose the flexibility to trade into the newer resorts but I figure I could always rent points for those if I really wanted to stay there. Anything else to consider?

I would probably look at this a bit differently. I would try to figure out how much you would get from selling your contract now compared to how much the new contract will cost when you buy it. I know you'll likely make money from your initial purchase price, but if you have to commit more money to buy the new contract that would nullify the gain in my mind. It's just a different way of thinking about it.

I expect Disney to start stepping in on ROFR on resale contracts once the parks re-open so I don't know if prices will really drop as much as everyone thinks they will. You'll probably be able to get a good deal on AKL since the price is already low (that's why we bought there), but I would guess that you'd end up paying more for a Poly contract when you factor in closing fees.

 

[glamdring269]

I would probably look at this a bit differently. I would try to figure out how much you would get from selling your contract now compared to how much the new contract will cost when you buy it. I know you'll likely make money from your initial purchase price, but if you have to commit more money to buy the new contract that would nullify the gain in my mind. It's just a different way of thinking about it.

I expect Disney to start stepping in on ROFR on resale contracts once the parks re-open so I don't know if prices will really drop as much as everyone thinks they will. You'll probably be able to get a good deal on AKL since the price is already low (that's why we bought there), but I would guess that you'd end up paying more for a Poly contract when you factor in closing fees.

This is actually what I'm doing. It's obviously somewhat speculative but I believe that I can still get a decent price for my contract if I sell today and I also believe there is a good chance that prices will go down across the board over the next several months. So there is a good chance that I can still sell somewhat below peak but buy later well below peak. Of course my speculation could be wrong but that's part of the game I guess!

I'm with you on the price variance between AKL & Poly, at least on the front end. The only thing is I have never had luck getting into Poly at 7 months but have never had a problem getting into AKL. Plus the maint fees at AKL are about $1/pt more than Poly so have to weigh that as well.

 

[glamdring269]

Well that was painless. Full price offer almost immediately. Guess I’m no longer a DVC member but now the patient hunt to rejoin begins!

 

[E2ME2]

Well that was painless. Full price offer almost immediately. Guess I’m no longer a DVC member but now the patient hunt to rejoin begins!

Do you mind telling us what you sold for vs what it was listed for, including the resort & number of points??
This board is the only place to get real data!
Thanks;

 

[glamdring269]

Do you mind telling us what you sold for vs what it was listed for, including the resort & number of points??
This board is the only place to get real data!
Thanks;

75 points/BRV/Oct/$110. 0/0/75 (19/20/21)

Sold pretty much instantly at asking price of $110. I'm guessing it's because of the small contract at a small resort at a tough UY sort of combination. One of the things we may do differently this time is intentionally look for a contract in a slightly less optimal UY simply due to limited availability of small Oct contracts.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I know it has been almost a month now, since the last post on this thread, but I think it is time to start thinking about the future of DVC purchases.

I would wait to buy until sometime in the period of October to January. If you keep an eye on things, then you should be able to see the trends by then.

I DO see the price going down some. I'm guessing 10% to maybe 15%, but what do I know. I don't see it dropping 20% or more unless the bottom really falls out of the economy.

This amount of time will also give you an idea of how the demand looks for Disney World. Over at least the next 6 months or so, Disney World is probably going to limit park admissions by at least 50%. So, I do expect DVC rooms to be in reasonable demand. Why? Because it is my opinion, that Disney Hotel Guests and DVC guests will have first crack at 'reserving park entry.' Then I think they will go to Season ticket holders in the 2nd rank, and 'Good Neighbor Hotels' in the 3rd rank. If you are not in one of those groups, I DON'T THINK IT IS LIKELY THAT YOU ARE GOING TO GET INTO DISNEY WORLD.

Here is my thinking:

* Estimated 'Capacity' at Disney World, across all the parks, is 320,000 or so. So, Half Capacity (if they even reach that) is about 160,000 rooms.

* They have 30,000 hotel rooms and around 4,200 DVC rooms (across all types) This should give an average capacity of around 120,000 people in hotels, and let's say 20,000 or 25,000 people in DVC rooms (I think I'm being generous here, but if anyone thinks they have better numbers, I would be glad to correct my estimates).

* If you round up to an even 150,000, that means that between Disney Hotels and DVC rooms, there are enough people to fill the parks by almost 1/2. These people should get first choice on reserving Park Entry. That doesn't leave a lot of room for 'other people.'

* There are hundreds of thousands of Annual Pass Holders, though I have no idea how many of them visit DW on any particular day. But these people should get 2nd Choice on reserving Park Entry.

* There are also about 50 'Good Neighbor Hotels.' I'm just spitballing here, but lets assume they average about 500 rooms each. That gives another 25,000 rooms, so lets say another 100,000 people. These people should probably get 2nd choice (along with Annual Passholders) or 3rd choice for reserving Park Entry.

Now you are up to a significantly greater capacity than Disney World will have room for. So, I think the most likely way to guarantee that you will be able to get into Disney World is to either stay in a Disney Hotel or a DVC room. So, DVC rooms will be in high demand.

Once you are convinced that the economy is stabilizing, but BEFORE it comes back up, I would start looking for 'just the right property.' I expect you will want to start this process in 3 to 6 months, at the most.

 

[RoseGold]

The 2042 contracts are so overvalued, I would sell now. I would buy cash for your next trip, honestly and try out a moderate.

 

[glamdring269]

Fred Civ, this is exactly where I'm at now. I sold my 2042 contract a few weeks back and have told myself to just wait. Wait. Wait. Then I saw a perfect contract today and almost decide to bite. But that sort of defeats the purpose here. I really think this will continue on for at least a few more months, if not several, and prices will continue to fall. Patience is key. I had hoped to return in 2021 but have a feeling late 2022 is now the first time we will consider for a WDW trip.

Time and patience are currently our most valued commodity at this point. And the great thing is we now get to sit on the sideline risk free.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Time and patience are currently are most valued commodity at this point. And the great thing is we now get to sit on the sideline risk free.

The Fall and early Winter seasons are pretty much all booked up, about as you would expect them to be every year, at this point. However, I am shocked at the CURRENT excellent availability of DVC rooms during late July and August, and even a bit into early Sept. This really must indicate that a lot of people are totally unsure about whether they want to travel to Disney World so soon, while COVID is still going on. (Not my daughter. She has booked 8 of us into 2 rooms, starting July 15th !!!)

 

[Matty B13]

The Fall and early Winter seasons are pretty much all booked up, about as you would expect them to be every year, at this point. However, I am shocked at the CURRENT excellent availability of DVC rooms during late July and August, and even a bit into early Sept. This really must indicate that a lot of people are totally unsure about whether they want to travel to Disney World so soon, while COVID is still going on. (Not my daughter. She has booked 8 of us into 2 rooms, starting July 15th !!!)

I'm guessing that a lot of people are in the high risk category for covid, especially DVC owners, and don't want to take the risk. If you have gone to WDW once or twice, every year for the past 10 years, is it really worth the risk?

We are still not sure of going in November, which is a rescheduled trip from April of this year. But we have been every year at least once since 2015.